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Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II


Marion_NC_WX

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The past two winters someone would probably be laughed at or dismissed pretty quickly for talking for more than a quick mention of hour 240 maps. This year it's become the norm for most people. How far we have fallen.

Well my hope is that the 12z EURO is picking up/sniffing the pattern already established by the EURO monthlies/weeklies. I don't know the specifics or the dynamics of the EURO weeklies but they seemed to have been spot on so far this winter by recollection. So when I hear they're calling for a better pattern in the next 2-3 weeks, now I'm paying attention.

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The past two winters someone would probably be laughed at or dismissed pretty quickly for talking for more than a quick mention of hour 240 maps. This year it's become the norm for most people. How far we have fallen.

I totally disagree plenty of times last year and the year before we discussed storms that far out. Not one person has expressed that this is a lock simply what it would look like if true. Seems to be a bit of made up nostalgia to me. How many times had a fantasy GFS storm at 384 been posted in the past? Plenty of times. I know I'm going to sound like brick but I don't get what the harm is in talking about what a model shows that far out even if for just that one run.

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I totally disagree plenty of times last year and the year before we discussed storms that far out. Not one person has expressed that this is a lock simply what it would look like if true. Seems to be a bit of made up nostalgia to me. How many times had a fantasy GFS storm at 384 been posted in the past? Plenty of times. I know I'm going to sound like brick but I don't get what the harm is in talking about what a model shows that far out even if for just that one run.

+1, If we can't discuss weather on a weather board where are we to discuss it at? Don't matter if it's a month out discuss!!!

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Let's not forget that twice a week we clamor to hear and discuss what the euro weeklies show. Not to mention this is a long range thread so by definition we should be discussing this and it's possibilities even if slim. I know part of the fun of model watching for me is to see these type of storms that far off and watch to see if it verifies.

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I totally disagree plenty of times last year and the year before we discussed storms that far out. Not one person has expressed that this is a lock simply what it would look like if true. Seems to be a bit of made up nostalgia to me. How many times had a fantasy GFS storm at 384 been posted in the past? Plenty of times. I know I'm going to sound like brick but I don't get what the harm is in talking about what a model shows that far out even if for just that one run.

+1, If we can't discuss weather on a weather board where are we to discuss it at? Don't matter if it's a month out discuss!!!

I never said we shouldn't discuss it, I thought the extent of the discussion on the long, long range op's was a bit much. Let's be real, there is not much to really say about a Global OP run in it's most extended hour. It also has little value in terms of sensible weather. It's likely never to verify and my point was comparing the last two years to this year. You guys both missed the boat on my comment.

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Let's not forget that twice a week we clamor to hear and discuss what the euro weeklies show. Not to mention this is a long range thread so by definition we should be discussing this and it's possibilities even if slim. I know part of the fun of model watching for me is to see these type of storms that far off and watch to see if it verifies.

Weeklies and monthlies are a broader sense of what will happen, not specifics like OP's with individual storms. I don't want to get into an argument so I'll leave it at we agree to disagree guys.

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No support from the 12z Euro Ens mean for the hr240 blizzard....and no sign whatsoever of -NAO blocking in the mid-extended range.

So surprised lol. I think this time period may still be one to watch regardless of NAO state. Split flow can always deliver as long as there is SOME cold around which it looks like may be the case. Plenty of time to watch.

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I never said we shouldn't discuss it, I thought the extent of the discussion on the long, long range op's was a bit much. Let's be real, there is not much to really say about a Global OP run in it's most extended hour. It also has little value in terms of sensible weather. It's likely never to verify and my point was comparing the last two years to this year. You guys both missed the boat on my comment.

I replied in the banter. Don't worry I'm not up and arms or anything I just like to argue sometimes for the sake of arguing ;)

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No support from the 12z Euro Ens mean for the hr240 blizzard....and no sign whatsoever of -NAO blocking in the mid-extended range.

12z GFS ens mems @ 204, 216, & 228 hrs respectively. Not bad considering how far out we are, support for a system during the timeframe, be nice to get some run-to-run continuity from the Euro.

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Models can't get a storm right within 5 days but we get excited about euro on the 20th?

This winter has been very unusual. I don't recall anyone getting excited about the possible 20th storm. I think people are just pointing it out. This is a Mid/Long Range Discussion thread after all...

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It is very telling to me that the models find storms that actually verify, but are so weak as to be nothing. The rain today, was a huge gulf low a week ago and more, but now I have had rain all afternoon, and it hasn't even wet the bottom of either gauge. The event verified, but not the qpf. Until I see some huge energy shown, then verified, I can't help but believe we get more of the same blah, blah, blah.

A 1060 high dropping down out of Canada with a huge gulf low running suppressed beneath it, has come to this. Pitiful. I haven't checked the 18z yet, but the 12z was giving me .02 for the event. Beyond pitiful. Looking at fantasy storms is all we have anymore, but even if they actually occur, they are apt to be so weak when they occur, as to deserving of our pity :) It is going to take some huge energy to break us out of these doldums, but what was showing last week, is now absent..on Goofy anyway. I'll enjoy the sort of cold coming up, but until the big time energy comes into the country, I'll just have to do with fantasy, I guess, lol. T

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This winter has been very unusual. I don't recall anyone getting excited about the possible 20th storm. I think people are just pointing it out. This is a Mid/Long Range Discussion thread after all...

I am for anything I was just saying nothing to get excited about yet. I do believe something will hwppen before end of month and you never know about March

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6z gfs showing some love for NC at 204. 0z euro also had some development in the gulf during this same time frame but doesn't make the turn like the 6z gfs. There is a 1024 high to the north but I would like to see that high stronger or move a little further south. Anyway, it's just something to keep an eye on.

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6z gfs showing some love for NC at 204. 0z euro also had some development in the gulf during this same time frame but doesn't make the turn like the 6z gfs. There is a 1024 high to the north but I would like to see that high stronger or move a little further south. Anyway, it's just something to keep an eye on.

I hope that one threads the needle...it looks like our only shot or the foreseeable future. The pattern just looks awful in the LR on virtually every single model.

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Models change day to day I wouldn't worry about LR jmo

That's a good point....but in this case, I'm worried less about one run vs. another with respect to specific events. In that scenario, day-to-day model runs will change. So to your point, it's smart not to worry about specifics in the long range (see the 240 Euro snowstorm from yesterday). However, a consistently depicted terrible, horrible, no good, very bad pattern does carry some weight, especially when it's been the persistent, stable, dominant, overriding pattern.

So, until we see some consistent, overwhelming, unanimous, unwavering agreement in the LR modeling, I think we can expect, with a reasonable degree of confidence, that it's going to remain generally unfavorable for cold and snow...not that we can't thread the needle, of course.

On perhaps a positive note, there have been some intermittent, sporadic, periodic, fleeting depictions of favorable blocking lately. If that becomes more consistent, then we'll have something to get excited about. But it better start showing up soon. The window is rapidly closing now.

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Entering the home stretch. Less than 3 weeks it will be March 1st and It's not looking like 1960 or 1993 at the moment. I still can't beleive I haven't even witnessed a frozen single piece of precip since last winter. Nothing (flurry/graupel). Still think I'll atleast see a minor snow shower or trace event at the least before the history book closes out the most misearable winter I hope to never expierence again.

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Entering the home stretch. Less than 3 weeks it will be March 1st and It's not looking like 1960 or 1993 at the moment. I still can't beleive I haven't even witnessed a frozen single piece of precip since last winter. Nothing (flurry/graupel). Still think I'll atleast see a minor snow shower or trace event at the least before the history book closes out the most misearable winter I hope to never expierence again.

I know I'm much further south than you, but I haven't witnessed a a snowflake/sleet pellet/or freezing rain this winter. If that holds up, it will be the first time ever that I didn't at least witness it. We've had winters with no accumulation, but we ALWAYS have at least a few flakes or sleet pellets each winter.

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I know I'm much further south than you, but I haven't witnessed a a snowflake/sleet pellet/or freezing rain this winter. If that holds up, it will be the first time ever that I didn't at least witness it. We've had winters with no accumulation, but we ALWAYS have at least a few flakes or sleet pellets each winter.

There is a lot of winter left. Heck, a little band of sleet formed up just south of me a few hours ago. Got more chances ahead, with suppression, and cold air about. Of course, Carrollton maybe to far north, lol. T

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