Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Models can't get a storm right within 5 days but we get excited about euro on the 20th? At least we have a fantasy 10 day storm. Of course, it probably won't happen. It hardly ever does when it shows something this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The past two winters someone would probably be laughed at or dismissed pretty quickly for talking for more than a quick mention of hour 240 maps. This year it's become the norm for most people. How far we have fallen. Well my hope is that the 12z EURO is picking up/sniffing the pattern already established by the EURO monthlies/weeklies. I don't know the specifics or the dynamics of the EURO weeklies but they seemed to have been spot on so far this winter by recollection. So when I hear they're calling for a better pattern in the next 2-3 weeks, now I'm paying attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The past two winters someone would probably be laughed at or dismissed pretty quickly for talking for more than a quick mention of hour 240 maps. This year it's become the norm for most people. How far we have fallen. I totally disagree plenty of times last year and the year before we discussed storms that far out. Not one person has expressed that this is a lock simply what it would look like if true. Seems to be a bit of made up nostalgia to me. How many times had a fantasy GFS storm at 384 been posted in the past? Plenty of times. I know I'm going to sound like brick but I don't get what the harm is in talking about what a model shows that far out even if for just that one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I totally disagree plenty of times last year and the year before we discussed storms that far out. Not one person has expressed that this is a lock simply what it would look like if true. Seems to be a bit of made up nostalgia to me. How many times had a fantasy GFS storm at 384 been posted in the past? Plenty of times. I know I'm going to sound like brick but I don't get what the harm is in talking about what a model shows that far out even if for just that one run. +1, If we can't discuss weather on a weather board where are we to discuss it at? Don't matter if it's a month out discuss!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Let's not forget that twice a week we clamor to hear and discuss what the euro weeklies show. Not to mention this is a long range thread so by definition we should be discussing this and it's possibilities even if slim. I know part of the fun of model watching for me is to see these type of storms that far off and watch to see if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 No support from the 12z Euro Ens mean for the hr240 blizzard....and no sign whatsoever of -NAO blocking in the mid-extended range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I totally disagree plenty of times last year and the year before we discussed storms that far out. Not one person has expressed that this is a lock simply what it would look like if true. Seems to be a bit of made up nostalgia to me. How many times had a fantasy GFS storm at 384 been posted in the past? Plenty of times. I know I'm going to sound like brick but I don't get what the harm is in talking about what a model shows that far out even if for just that one run. +1, If we can't discuss weather on a weather board where are we to discuss it at? Don't matter if it's a month out discuss!!! I never said we shouldn't discuss it, I thought the extent of the discussion on the long, long range op's was a bit much. Let's be real, there is not much to really say about a Global OP run in it's most extended hour. It also has little value in terms of sensible weather. It's likely never to verify and my point was comparing the last two years to this year. You guys both missed the boat on my comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Let's not forget that twice a week we clamor to hear and discuss what the euro weeklies show. Not to mention this is a long range thread so by definition we should be discussing this and it's possibilities even if slim. I know part of the fun of model watching for me is to see these type of storms that far off and watch to see if it verifies. Weeklies and monthlies are a broader sense of what will happen, not specifics like OP's with individual storms. I don't want to get into an argument so I'll leave it at we agree to disagree guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 No support from the 12z Euro Ens mean for the hr240 blizzard....and no sign whatsoever of -NAO blocking in the mid-extended range. So surprised lol. I think this time period may still be one to watch regardless of NAO state. Split flow can always deliver as long as there is SOME cold around which it looks like may be the case. Plenty of time to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I never said we shouldn't discuss it, I thought the extent of the discussion on the long, long range op's was a bit much. Let's be real, there is not much to really say about a Global OP run in it's most extended hour. It also has little value in terms of sensible weather. It's likely never to verify and my point was comparing the last two years to this year. You guys both missed the boat on my comment. I replied in the banter. Don't worry I'm not up and arms or anything I just like to argue sometimes for the sake of arguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 No support from the 12z Euro Ens mean for the hr240 blizzard....and no sign whatsoever of -NAO blocking in the mid-extended range. Well that sucks. Guess that puts the nail in the coffin for that fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 No support from the 12z Euro Ens mean for the hr240 blizzard....and no sign whatsoever of -NAO blocking in the mid-extended range. 12z GFS ens mems @ 204, 216, & 228 hrs respectively. Not bad considering how far out we are, support for a system during the timeframe, be nice to get some run-to-run continuity from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 At least we have a fantasy 10 day storm. Of course, it probably won't happen. It hardly ever does when it shows something this far out. How many times have you cancelled winter lately? So you are still watching fantasy storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Models can't get a storm right within 5 days but we get excited about euro on the 20th? This winter has been very unusual. I don't recall anyone getting excited about the possible 20th storm. I think people are just pointing it out. This is a Mid/Long Range Discussion thread after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 It is very telling to me that the models find storms that actually verify, but are so weak as to be nothing. The rain today, was a huge gulf low a week ago and more, but now I have had rain all afternoon, and it hasn't even wet the bottom of either gauge. The event verified, but not the qpf. Until I see some huge energy shown, then verified, I can't help but believe we get more of the same blah, blah, blah. A 1060 high dropping down out of Canada with a huge gulf low running suppressed beneath it, has come to this. Pitiful. I haven't checked the 18z yet, but the 12z was giving me .02 for the event. Beyond pitiful. Looking at fantasy storms is all we have anymore, but even if they actually occur, they are apt to be so weak when they occur, as to deserving of our pity It is going to take some huge energy to break us out of these doldums, but what was showing last week, is now absent..on Goofy anyway. I'll enjoy the sort of cold coming up, but until the big time energy comes into the country, I'll just have to do with fantasy, I guess, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 This winter has been very unusual. I don't recall anyone getting excited about the possible 20th storm. I think people are just pointing it out. This is a Mid/Long Range Discussion thread after all... I am for anything I was just saying nothing to get excited about yet. I do believe something will hwppen before end of month and you never know about March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 6z gfs showing some love for NC at 204. 0z euro also had some development in the gulf during this same time frame but doesn't make the turn like the 6z gfs. There is a 1024 high to the north but I would like to see that high stronger or move a little further south. Anyway, it's just something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 6z gfs showing some love for NC at 204. 0z euro also had some development in the gulf during this same time frame but doesn't make the turn like the 6z gfs. There is a 1024 high to the north but I would like to see that high stronger or move a little further south. Anyway, it's just something to keep an eye on. I hope that one threads the needle...it looks like our only shot or the foreseeable future. The pattern just looks awful in the LR on virtually every single model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Models change day to day I wouldn't worry about LR jmo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Models change day to day I wouldn't worry about LR jmo That's a good point....but in this case, I'm worried less about one run vs. another with respect to specific events. In that scenario, day-to-day model runs will change. So to your point, it's smart not to worry about specifics in the long range (see the 240 Euro snowstorm from yesterday). However, a consistently depicted terrible, horrible, no good, very bad pattern does carry some weight, especially when it's been the persistent, stable, dominant, overriding pattern. So, until we see some consistent, overwhelming, unanimous, unwavering agreement in the LR modeling, I think we can expect, with a reasonable degree of confidence, that it's going to remain generally unfavorable for cold and snow...not that we can't thread the needle, of course. On perhaps a positive note, there have been some intermittent, sporadic, periodic, fleeting depictions of favorable blocking lately. If that becomes more consistent, then we'll have something to get excited about. But it better start showing up soon. The window is rapidly closing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Entering the home stretch. Less than 3 weeks it will be March 1st and It's not looking like 1960 or 1993 at the moment. I still can't beleive I haven't even witnessed a frozen single piece of precip since last winter. Nothing (flurry/graupel). Still think I'll atleast see a minor snow shower or trace event at the least before the history book closes out the most misearable winter I hope to never expierence again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Entering the home stretch. Less than 3 weeks it will be March 1st and It's not looking like 1960 or 1993 at the moment. I still can't beleive I haven't even witnessed a frozen single piece of precip since last winter. Nothing (flurry/graupel). Still think I'll atleast see a minor snow shower or trace event at the least before the history book closes out the most misearable winter I hope to never expierence again. I know I'm much further south than you, but I haven't witnessed a a snowflake/sleet pellet/or freezing rain this winter. If that holds up, it will be the first time ever that I didn't at least witness it. We've had winters with no accumulation, but we ALWAYS have at least a few flakes or sleet pellets each winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I know I'm much further south than you, but I haven't witnessed a a snowflake/sleet pellet/or freezing rain this winter. If that holds up, it will be the first time ever that I didn't at least witness it. We've had winters with no accumulation, but we ALWAYS have at least a few flakes or sleet pellets each winter. There is a lot of winter left. Heck, a little band of sleet formed up just south of me a few hours ago. Got more chances ahead, with suppression, and cold air about. Of course, Carrollton maybe to far north, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 No mention of the 12z? It looked close around 200 to me for something frozen for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 No mention of the 12z? It looked close around 200 to me for something frozen for NC And long range west based NAO as well, although its way out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 192 204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 No mention of the 12z? It looked close around 200 to me for something frozen for NC the whole system during that time period looks interesting for most of the south. Temps will trend colder and the right position of low could be game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Through 168 the EURO looks like it is also advertising something interesting in the day 8 time frame. Regardless of the outcome, there is increasing confidence for some sort of southern stream system affecting the SE next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 There is definitely nice potential day 7-9 on the euro/gfs. Strong looking overrunnign potential. Still think there is the chance for a weak event tuesday around the Carolinas/N GA. At this point the airmass may be too dry though. Hard to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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