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Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II


Marion_NC_WX

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Not sure about how well it typically verifies....but I've seen usedtobe (Wes) reference it several times, and have seen him comment that it is one of the better ways to look down the road since it is a 5-day ensemble mean and not based on a single date.

Hmm, my interest is in the Euro Monthlies that Jeff Crum mentioned. Is this the same data as the Euro Weeklies? All winter the operational models have hinted at X pattern change but the Euro Weeklies I believed established Y. Just from recollection, it seems the weeklies verified more often than not. I think they were even quite specific on outlining this cool down we are experiencing this week. Thus assuming it's the same data, this is the first time my interest has been peaked in a potential multi week pattern change (cold). I'd love to see a late February 2004 redux.

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Yea @189 it doesn't look too bad...moisture coming in with temps just at northern VA border....better than them being around NY.

The maps sure let us down with the energy for the next few rounds. Maybe after midweek things will perk up. Without the 1060 highs and the powerful gulf lows there is nothing interesting going on to force a change from these endless blahs :) I could sure use some decent rains, if nothing else! Tony

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12Z Doc update: Snow parts of Carolinas 2/20-1! Please stay tuned to this BB for further updates. Keep hope alive.

Yeah, at least 1/2" of QPF over most of NC, more toward the east. Although it's abv freezing at the surface everywhere except the mountains. At least it's something to look at, eh?

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Yeah, at least 1/2" of QPF over most of NC, more toward the east. Although it's abv freezing at the surface everywhere except the mountains. At least it's something to look at, eh?

I always assume a rather significant surface warm bias with the Euro in these situations. Besides, even its own snow accumulation output agrees its surface temp.'s are BS as it is ignoring it and is putting down a major snowfall.

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At least it's a viable setup -- unlike this junk we are "tracking" for Monday night/Tuesday.

Truth is, a big cutoff is probably our only hope in this God-forsaken pattern.

12z Euro with a classic RDU SN-storm between, 222 & 234 hrs, pounds ENC too on its way out. 0C 850 line pivots right along 95 in NC, active times ahead, also like the period around the 27th, stay tuned

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Yeah, at least 1/2" of QPF over most of NC, more toward the east. Although it's abv freezing at the surface everywhere except the mountains. At least it's something to look at, eh?

If (if) it snows we may have some help from the inital cold air mass. Models tend to warm (or increase moisture content of) the air too quickly. So we may get some nice evaporational cooling. But we'll see....

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12z Euro with a classic RDU SN-storm between, 222 & 234 hrs, pounds ENC too on its way out. 0C 850 line pivots right along 95 in NC, active times ahead, also like the period around the 27th, stay tuned

Sounds like those hours are pretty similar to the EURO monthly dates mentioned. Maybe they're on to something.

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The most important feature I see on the map is the nice, well-placed HP to the west and north, feeding cold air into the storm. That is a key element that has been desperately missing all season long. If this scenario turns out even close to this, we'll need to keep an eye on any convection forming down south.

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12z Euro with a classic RDU SN-storm between, 222 & 234 hrs, pounds ENC too on its way out. 0C 850 line pivots right along 95 in NC, active times ahead, also like the period around the 27th, stay tuned

In past years we would have laughed at seriously discussing anything that popped up on one model 10 days out and here we are with a few posts in this thread already talking accumulations. Just goes to show how snow starved we are. I'll wait a bit before even thinking about it. Been there and done that too many times.

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Yes, well said.

Euro has been worthless at Day 10 all season -- time after time it has shown a big cold outbreak that didn't materialize.

I fully expect this to disappear on subsequent runs.

In past years we would have laughed at seriously discussing anything that popped up on one model 10 days out and here we are with a few posts in this thread already talking accumulations. Just goes to show how snow starved we are. I'll wait a bit before even thinking about it. Been there and done that too many times.

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Models can't get a storm right within 5 days but we get excited about euro on the 20th?

The past two winters someone would probably be laughed at or dismissed pretty quickly for talking for more than a quick mention of hour 240 maps. This year it's become the norm for most people. How far we have fallen.

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