burgertime Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Watching that energy out west on the 12z at around 147 do the tango with eachother is entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I like the split flow pattern setting up. We will see some surprises out of that, if it verifies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Rankin, Burger i think the next two weeks could be fun. I like that look to. I think something could sneak in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I like the split flow pattern setting up. We will see some surprises out of that, if it verifies... Yea @189 it doesn't look too bad...moisture coming in with temps just at northern VA border....better than them being around NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Not sure about how well it typically verifies....but I've seen usedtobe (Wes) reference it several times, and have seen him comment that it is one of the better ways to look down the road since it is a 5-day ensemble mean and not based on a single date. Hmm, my interest is in the Euro Monthlies that Jeff Crum mentioned. Is this the same data as the Euro Weeklies? All winter the operational models have hinted at X pattern change but the Euro Weeklies I believed established Y. Just from recollection, it seems the weeklies verified more often than not. I think they were even quite specific on outlining this cool down we are experiencing this week. Thus assuming it's the same data, this is the first time my interest has been peaked in a potential multi week pattern change (cold). I'd love to see a late February 2004 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yea @189 it doesn't look too bad...moisture coming in with temps just at northern VA border....better than them being around NY. The maps sure let us down with the energy for the next few rounds. Maybe after midweek things will perk up. Without the 1060 highs and the powerful gulf lows there is nothing interesting going on to force a change from these endless blahs I could sure use some decent rains, if nothing else! Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12Z Doc update: Snow parts of Carolinas 2/20-1! Please stay tuned to this BB for further updates. Keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenny Marie Photo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12Z Doc update: Snow parts of Carolinas 2/20-1! Please stay tuned to this BB for further updates. Keep hope alive. Would that be North or South Carolina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think the NC folks will like the look of the 240 Euro... Omgzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12Z Doc update: Snow parts of Carolinas 2/20-1! Please stay tuned to this BB for further updates. Keep hope alive. Yeah, at least 1/2" of QPF over most of NC, more toward the east. Although it's abv freezing at the surface everywhere except the mountains. At least it's something to look at, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Would that be North or South Carolina? When "the Carolinas" are said, they are usually talking about the Upstate of SC and most of NC as we all know that here in the midlands it only snows once a decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Would that be North or South Carolina? Far northern SC Greenville to Rock Hill gets 2". Some snow a little south of there. All but coastal NC gets 2"+. Much of it 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12z Euro with a classic RDU SN-storm between, 222 & 234 hrs, pounds ENC too on its way out. 0C 850 line pivots right along 95 in NC, active times ahead, also like the period around the 27th, stay tuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenny Marie Photo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 When "the Carolinas" are said, they are usually talking about the Upstate of SC and most of NC as we all know that here in the midlands it only snows once a decade Well I am in the Upstate so hopefully I may see a stray flake or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think the NC folks will like the look of the 240 Euro... Omgzzzzzz Don't feed the beast!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah, at least 1/2" of QPF over most of NC, more toward the east. Although it's abv freezing at the surface everywhere except the mountains. At least it's something to look at, eh? I always assume a rather significant surface warm bias with the Euro in these situations. Besides, even its own snow accumulation output agrees its surface temp.'s are BS as it is ignoring it and is putting down a major snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 At least it's a viable setup -- unlike this junk we are "tracking" for Monday night/Tuesday. Truth is, a big cutoff is probably our only hope in this God-forsaken pattern. 12z Euro with a classic RDU SN-storm between, 222 & 234 hrs, pounds ENC too on its way out. 0C 850 line pivots right along 95 in NC, active times ahead, also like the period around the 27th, stay tuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah, at least 1/2" of QPF over most of NC, more toward the east. Although it's abv freezing at the surface everywhere except the mountains. At least it's something to look at, eh? If (if) it snows we may have some help from the inital cold air mass. Models tend to warm (or increase moisture content of) the air too quickly. So we may get some nice evaporational cooling. But we'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12z Euro with a classic RDU SN-storm between, 222 & 234 hrs, pounds ENC too on its way out. 0C 850 line pivots right along 95 in NC, active times ahead, also like the period around the 27th, stay tuned Yep really pounds you guys...even for MBY looks like it drops .50 of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12z Euro with a classic RDU SN-storm between, 222 & 234 hrs, pounds ENC too on its way out. 0C 850 line pivots right along 95 in NC, active times ahead, also like the period around the 27th, stay tuned Sounds like those hours are pretty similar to the EURO monthly dates mentioned. Maybe they're on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The most important feature I see on the map is the nice, well-placed HP to the west and north, feeding cold air into the storm. That is a key element that has been desperately missing all season long. If this scenario turns out even close to this, we'll need to keep an eye on any convection forming down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12z Euro with a classic RDU SN-storm between, 222 & 234 hrs, pounds ENC too on its way out. 0C 850 line pivots right along 95 in NC, active times ahead, also like the period around the 27th, stay tuned In past years we would have laughed at seriously discussing anything that popped up on one model 10 days out and here we are with a few posts in this thread already talking accumulations. Just goes to show how snow starved we are. I'll wait a bit before even thinking about it. Been there and done that too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 If only, if only...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yes, well said. Euro has been worthless at Day 10 all season -- time after time it has shown a big cold outbreak that didn't materialize. I fully expect this to disappear on subsequent runs. In past years we would have laughed at seriously discussing anything that popped up on one model 10 days out and here we are with a few posts in this thread already talking accumulations. Just goes to show how snow starved we are. I'll wait a bit before even thinking about it. Been there and done that too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 So this would not include any other parts of the southeast except the Carolinas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Saw this posted regarding last night's Euro Weeklies - "Weeklies were actually not that bad and had some blocking week 2 into week 3. Week 4 was kind of ugly." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 So this would not include any other parts of the southeast except the Carolinas? It really only gets cranked up after it passes me and you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Models can't get a storm right within 5 days but we get excited about euro on the 20th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Models can't get a storm right within 5 days but we get excited about euro on the 20th? Van won't. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Models can't get a storm right within 5 days but we get excited about euro on the 20th? The past two winters someone would probably be laughed at or dismissed pretty quickly for talking for more than a quick mention of hour 240 maps. This year it's become the norm for most people. How far we have fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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