MotoWeatherman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Clown map, looks good verbatim for the mountains. It does. I've seen several situations like this in the past where were got a quick 1-2" up here before the change over to rain. The bummer for me is that I will be in Orlando on that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 If it's up to me, I typically wouldn't want the southern stream wave coming in ahead of the cold. I'd rather the cold come through first or have a phasing scenario. That aint what we got here. Next week may hold different cards, though. Don't know how long we want these threads to get, but if you want Cold Rain to start the next one while we still have some Winter left, let me know. 'sall good either way. Just as long as we get some of that X-Mas 2010 mojo with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro HR102, light to moderate snow over all of Arkansas. HR108, moderate to heavy snow over Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It does. I've seen several situations like this in the past where were got a quick 1-2" up here before the change over to rain. The bummer for me is that I will be in Orlando on that day. Yep. This is what I was saying early. This used to be the Winter events here in the nrn part of the state before the past 2 years arrive. The quick thumpings! lol Sloppy/messy events. Btw even the warm bias GFS Mos Guidance has trended much colder and indicates the Wintry Mix to rain scenario...Much colder than 00z. GFS mos for Dalton,GA 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 For Tuesday AM in NC, far from an ideal setup. There is nothing at all to hold the cold air in with this setup. However, with that said, look at what happened just yesterday morning. There were some flakes out into parts of the NW piedmont with the lower levels hardly supportive. If the 12z GFS is a perfect prog (and most other models too), I would fully expect a period of snow with this out into the foothills and a chunk of the piedmont. How long it would last would depend on precip rates especially. If you can get this to come in prior to daybreak, you might have a little something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I have begun a seperate thread for the Valentine's Day system FYI....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well, Goofy has been honed in on the time between the weekend out to the 18th or so. Lately the doc has been wanting to bring down the cold. Burger is all in for the weekend storm, I've leaned more toward Valentine's Day. The whole period still seems to be in play. Now is the time for the Doc. to get on board, or punt. The next few runs of the Euro ought to be interesting. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z Euro keeps hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Can someone clear this up for me? Are we talking about maybe two separate systems, one for this weekend and one for next week? Or is this one big system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z Euro from 114-123. I put these in links so as to not make this too large of a post. 114: http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg815/scaled.php?server=815&filename=37912479.jpg&res=medium 117: http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg846/scaled.php?server=846&filename=87308136.jpg&res=medium 120: http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg607/scaled.php?server=607&filename=79941028.jpg&res=medium 123: http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg26/scaled.php?server=26&filename=84685354.jpg&res=medium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The GFS even indicates a short burst of light snow being a possibility down into CAE. Not too hopeful on that one though. The MOS guidance has p06/12 pops really low in that time period. KCAE's AFD isn't mentioning anything but rain currently, but they state that it'll be well below average in that time-frame before a warmup. 204 Sat 02/18 00Z 68 ° 56 ° 49 ° WSW 11 WSW 34 0.19 0.12 552 555 7 ° -17 ° 1003 58 % 216 Sat 02/18 12Z 57 ° 40 ° 40 ° W 11 NW 31 0.02 0.01 538 547 0 ° -23 ° 1010 23 % Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Can someone clear this up for me? Are we talking about maybe two separate systems, one for this weekend and one for next week? Or is this one big system? Hey Brick...There are 2 different systems. One on Saturday night and one Tuesday night (Wednesday morning). Unfortunately neither one looks good for our area. Temps are going to be too warm by the time the moisture gets to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Hey Brick...There are 2 different systems. One on Saturday night and one Tuesday night (Wednesday morning). Unfortunately neither one looks good for our area. Temps are going to be too warm by the time the moisture gets to us. Of course this would be the case. Typical for the way this winter has been. Bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 No polar vortex nearby on the Euro in the LR. It doesn't look like sustained cold will arrive anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 GSP afternoon afd for the Sat event: .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT 140 PM THURSDAY...RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST COULD BRUSH FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING...SO SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS BY LATE FRI EVENING. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE MTNS DURING THIS TIME THAT ANY PRECIP WOULD FALL AS SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET OR SO FRI EVENING...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AS LOW AS 2500 FEET. ARCTIC FROPA WILL OCCUR BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH TEMPS DROPPING RAPIDLY IN MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT WILL UNFOLD SATURDAY...AS UPSLOPE MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR THE TENN BORDER. THE SETUP WILL ACTUALLY BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY...AS ORTHOGONAL H8 FLOW OF 30-40 KT (WITH TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GREAT LAKES)...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND VERY COLD H8 TEMPS OF LESS THAN -10 ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE MOIST NW FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS. LIKELY POPS WILL BE CARRIED ALONG THE TENN BORDER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL BEGIN TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN THE HWO. NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING...LEAVING BEHIND A VERY COLD END TO THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST... AS A DEEP TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY WILL BE AMONG THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR...WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I think a thread needs to be started for the potential wintry weather THIS SATURDAY 2-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I think a thread needs to be started for the potential wintry weather THIS SATURDAY 2-11. Have at it, I will be happy to check in with my RN totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Have at it, I will be happy to check in with my RN totals... I am with you on that dude! I am thinking more along the lines of N Ala, N Miss, N Ga and the western parts of NC/SC. I remember the Caolina Crusher having this look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Jeff Crum from News 14 has some interesting things to point out from what he saw in the Euro monthly: ***Standard disclaimer - THIS IS NOT the gospel of weather. This model offers a trend, dates to watch and it's possible this, or parts of it, don't verify. Having said that... it's been pretty good about the trends, a few minor missteps sure, but overall, the performance I like. This model run takes us from today through March 11th. No complex technical talk, just an easy read of the trends in the latest data; save the "jargon" for the weather boards. * Snow lovers take heart! Winter is not done, and we may actually exit winterwithout the big fat ZERO in the snow bucket concerns we've all been having . The dates of February 24-27th stand out as a window of opportunity. Moisture and cold could do the dance as a potent storm, depicted by the modeling, develops along the Gulf and tracks through the South. Core of the storm tracks just south of NC, leaving NC on the colder side of life, and in the position to see, perhaps, a quality winter wallop. Will it? Time will tell. It's the most promising thing I've seen thus far this winter season. * Prior to the bigger system, we may see some flurries around the 14th, and some light snow with a clipper system around the 19th of the month. * Other dates for storms, mostly rain producing are: Feb 17th, 22nd, March 2 and March 9th. ** Getting a few pings for some big ticket cold in early March. March 3-6 could be rough with another hit of big ticket cold around March 10-12th. I think the trends from the model run suggest we are finally seeing a pattern change kick into gear that has been advertised in some sectors. Jet stream should finally make a few hard, and more frequent, swings our way (or at least, more opportunities for phasing of a split flow). March may turn out colder than "average". It appears the overall pattern is going to be a bit more active through the end of the month into early March. 2-4" of precipitation, in total, perhaps, for the period. No dates are a lock, timing may shift, it is, after all, Mother Nature; she will do what she wants, when she wants. Those are the highlights... Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Jeff Crum from News 14 has some interesting things to point out from what he saw in the Euro monthly: Thanks for posting this Gaston. It'll be interesting to start watching the models during 24th-25th timeframe just to see if something starts to show up. I'm one that threw in the towel on this winter at the end of January but I would love to be wrong in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS SuperEnsemble - 5 day mean centered on Feb 17th supports the idea of at least a weak -NAO look with negative anomalies SE of Newfoundland and positive height anomalies between Hudson Bay and Greenland....and a mean trough east of the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Who knows if it's right, but this is a strong, west-based -NAO look on today's update,,,,,5 day mean for the period Feb 16-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Who knows if it's right, but this is a strong, west-based -NAO look on today's update,,,,,5 day mean for the period Feb 16-20. Sign me up. One would think if we can get a block to develop, we will have a few more opportunities within that time frame or shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Who knows if it's right, but this is a strong, west-based -NAO look on today's update,,,,,5 day mean for the period Feb 16-20. How does this typically verify? I don't typically look at this output very much, so I'm not too familiar with it. Glancing at all of the major models this morning, they all look pretty awful out to the end of their ranges, which puts us near the end of the month. The one you showed is the only one that looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 How does this typically verify? I don't typically look at this output very much, so I'm not too familiar with it. Glancing at all of the major models this morning, they all look pretty awful out to the end of their ranges, which puts us near the end of the month. The one you showed is the only one that looks decent. Not sure about how well it typically verifies....but I've seen usedtobe (Wes) reference it several times, and have seen him comment that it is one of the better ways to look down the road since it is a 5-day ensemble mean and not based on a single date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Not sure about how well it typically verifies....but I've seen usedtobe (Wes) reference it several times, and have seen him comment that it is one of the better ways to look down the road since it is a 5-day ensemble mean and not based on a single date. Good deal. Hopefully, it will verify. Once thing is certain, though. Since it shows cold, you can rest assured that Wes and Don won't be using it this time. . Just kidding guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The 06 has cut my rain amounts from pawltry on the 0z down to squat on the 06. Won't matter how cold it is, there won't be any rain down this way on either of the next two systems, at this rate, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 In order to get that look on the 5-day mean, one would assume that it's taking the -NAO at hour 96 and rolling it boldly west, with the negative anomalies then extending out east toward the Azores. Euro and Euro Ens instead retreat the cold vortex north and wash out the -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 In order to get that look on the 5-day mean, one would assume that it's taking the -NAO at hour 96 and rolling it boldly west, with the negative anomalies then extending out east toward the Azores. Euro and Euro Ens instead retreat the cold vortex north and wash out the -NAO. This is what I am talking about. The Euro and Ukie take the polar vortex from southeast Canada with a developing -NAO and pull it back northwest to above Hudson Bay, effectively killing any chances of a developing -NAO. I guess we will just have to see as it does have a decent look pre day 7 and then gets ugly quick. Maybe this will be the Euro/Ukie vs GFS/GGEM. I know who my money is on. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Saw this snippet from the HPC Disco on the Euro Ensemble...several times I've read that it is hard to beat the Euro Ensemble Mean in the medium range. "THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN A STRONG PERFORMER AT THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR SOME TIME NOW" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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