burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not enough cold air in place...but we might be able to eek out a token snow shower verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 @120 parts of SW NC, NW SC and NE GA should be all snow. If we could get this to move in just a tad fast my area could possibly get in on the action. Looks like verbatim some places could start as snow and then change to rain fairly quickly, the mountains and northern section s of the southeast will have much more room to play with. I am not a fan of the setup though and there is little to no room for a trend in the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 For 3 hours at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z GFS trends in a major way toward the 00z Model Suite with Monday nights system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Or the right direction with the vortex in place over se Canada. Looks like verbatim some places could start as snow and then change to rain fairly quickly, the mountains and northern section s of the southeast will have much more room to play with. I am not a fan of the setup though and there is little to no room for a trend in the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Thermile profile for KMRN (Foothills Regional Apt.) solidly in the snow profile at 120... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This is the closest "look" that we have had all winter imo. At least we have something wintry (at least borderline) to track. We will see where future runs take us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Looks like verbatim some places could start as snow and then change to rain fairly quickly, the mountains and northern section s of the southeast will have much more room to play with. I am not a fan of the setup though and there is little to no room for a trend in the wrong direction. We need to be happy with anything if we can get it at this point. The big issue will be timing...if it can trend just a tad faster it could make a big difference...at least for MBY. The big draw back is that it always seems that these systems are usually slower and not faster when all is said and done...then again I my just be remembering all the storms it slowed down so there is probably no science behind that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z GFS trends in a major way toward the 00z Model Suite with Monday nights system. Just wanted to get back to what you asked me before...should we be paying much attention to how it looks on the surface? Do we just want to see the right thickness and evap cooling will do the rest? Just wondering what to keep an eye on for the Euro since on the surface it looked very iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I agree Burger... at least it's something to track. And the way snow is down here, it doesn't have to be exactly perfect right now... at least the trend is there. HPC was leaning more toward the Euro in the extended versus the GFS. But yes, at least there are a few things to track for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This is the closest "look" that we have had all winter imo. At least we have something wintry (at least borderline) to track. We will see where future runs take us. I agree Rankin. At least we may see snow even if it turnes to rain later on. Hell ill be happy with just a few flakes the way this winter has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Clown map, looks good verbatim for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Clown map, looks good verbatim for the mountains. Dusting for MBY? Might as well be a blizzard for me! Seriously though, let's see where the Euro goes. This is a good start if nothing else. I agree lots can go wrong but we gotta ride this baby till the wheels fall off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Dusting for MBY? Might as well be a blizzard for me! Seriously though, let's see where the Euro goes. This is a good start if nothing else. I agree lots can go wrong but we gotta ride this baby till the wheels fall off. lol, I would take it and run this winter. But we all know these things usually don't trend in the right direction. Who knows though, we will have to see this play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Judging by the AKH sounding, theres a good chance a bulk of that falls as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Dusting for MBY? Might as well be a blizzard for me! Seriously though, let's see where the Euro goes. This is a good start if nothing else. I agree lots can go wrong but we gotta ride this baby till the wheels fall off. Don't forget the Canadian. It jumped on board with our vort not dropping into the baja low well before the GFS. canadian also has the snowstorm for midsouth on Monday. GFS much closer this run. PV retrogrades just as the system comes in, and evaporational cooling knocks down 850s, but the storm is slower than the euro, so it warms up again.I'll take the trend. I bet GFS ensembles have some wicked snow Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Judging by the AKH sounding, theres a good chance a bulk of that falls as snow Very interesting. That could be a good inch or two..worst part would be if the rain washed it away that being said though how often have we seen storms where you get a few inches of snow only to turn to rain? I just don't remember that many outside of it turning to freezing rain or drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 When I see my homie QC start throwing out soundings, then we are a step closer to "game on" for wintry weather. Just sayin... Keep hope alive folks. Winter is not over yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Just wanted to get back to what you asked me before...should we be paying much attention to how it looks on the surface? Do we just want to see the right thickness and evap cooling will do the rest? Just wondering what to keep an eye on for the Euro since on the surface it looked very iffy. Evaportional Cooling along with the High pressure location to the north. Euro was showing this situation last night on the 00z along with the other models last night minus the GFS. Now the GFS has trended toward it. Good sign. Now lets see if the other 12z Guidance can hold on to this idea if so this could be a real legit threat for the upper south. I am not sold yet but it has my attention as you can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Brad Panovich just updated his blog (announced via twitter). His thoughts on this weekend and beyond. http://wxbrad.com/?p=2846 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Evaportional Cooling along with the High pressure location to the north. Euro was showing this situation last night on the 00z along with the other models last night minus the GFS. Now the GFS has trended toward it. Good sign. Now lets see if the other 12z Guidance can hold on to this idea if so this could be a real legit threat for the upper south. I am not sold yet but it has my attention as you can tell. Thanks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Very interesting. That could be a good inch or two..worst part would be if the rain washed it away that being said though how often have we seen storms where you get a few inches of snow only to turn to rain? I just don't remember that many outside of it turning to freezing rain or drizzle. Before the past 2 years of winters we used to get these here in N. GA all the time. It would start off as a quick thumping of snow changing to sleet and a cold rain making for a slushy mess. Pretty old fashion winter event around these parts before the past two years of winters arrived! Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 FWIW...we got an Apps Runner at 192 as another ridge ties to poke up the west and a trough begins to develop in the Central/Eastern US... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Just a heads up I have a lunch meeting so I may not be around for Euro PBP...I'll try to make it back in time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Just a heads up I have a lunch meeting so I may not be around for Euro PBP...I'll try to make it back in time though. Your priorities are garbage, lol. I wanted to say that we all are truly thankful for your PBP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I find the GFS usually overdoes snow accumulation while the NAM underdoes it - but here's the GFS 12Z for next week. By the way here is Mt. Leconte as of this morning: http://www.highonleconte.com/uploads/3/8/3/9/3839600/307299_orig.jpg Looks like they had an inch or two of snow. I'm debating whether or not I'll hike up there or to Clingman's Dome this weekend. I'll have to find a way to get there that will enable me to quickly backtrack if I do and the weather is too darned cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 We'll have to see if the euro model keeps the system far south and not turn it into a warm advection scheme. The high isn't ideally placed even though 850's may show it cold enough for Tenn. to NC where the bulk of the moisture axis is snow aloft, but southerly winds won't be good to keep it snow. Unless the rates are strong and the column can wetbulb. Remember we had a couple events over the last couple years , esp. 2 years ago where aloft it was -3 or -4 here and it rained with spotty sleet. Southwest winds certainly won't be good in lower elevations. But there is a chance that a high can work north, or break off from the parent high that slides out to see, or a weak pseudo-high forms in the Virginia or Carolina piedmont keeping just enough weak east or ne winds at the surface for lower elevations to see the flakes make it to the ground in flake form. Otherwise, strong warm advection with the surface high sliding bodily out to see would see a snow to quick rain scenario in the lower elevations, even at night. There's a lot going on in the details of this, so its not quite classic Winter storm setup. Even though at 5H its nearly ideal with the tight Eastern Canada vortex and some confluence, and the southern stream looks solid but I'd prefer it to look a little more south and the surface high to atleast partially remain inland Monday night and Tuesday to lock in ne winds. It's a start though and something to work with for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 CMC looks warmer than the GFS with parameters very borderline from the b/w maps. I would like to see more detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 CMC says better luck next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Looks like the 12z CMC on closer inspection is right in line with the 00z CMC in showing a wintry mix to rain type event or a slushy mess Monday night into Tuesday AM across Extrmeme nrn Mississippi,Alabama,Georgia, Tennessee, and Western Carolina... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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