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Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II


Marion_NC_WX

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Looks like va north to me, DC area may pick up an advisory level event. Note how it has trended warmer for NC, taking the 850 line from I95 on the 0z run @ 57 compared to almost I77 @ 45hrs this run. Coastal low is a little stronger and just off HAT, throwing more warm air inland. The cold front is just coming over the mtns at this time so there is really mechanism to prevent this "warm up.". I think we may even see it trend warmer, with a stronger moisture influx, taking SE VA out of the game, but DC is looking better than 24hrs ago that's for sure.

Also interesting is that JB could be right about the NE with what he said yesterday(?)...looks like a direct hit for SNE this weekend :bag:

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If it's up to me, I typically wouldn't want the southern stream wave coming in ahead of the cold. I'd rather the cold come through first or have a phasing scenario. That aint what we got here. Next week may hold different cards, though.

Don't know how long we want these threads to get, but if you want Cold Rain to start the next one while we still have some Winter left, let me know. ;) 'sall good either way. :)

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Daddy like the 84HR NAM....but then again, it's the 84HR NAM.

I'm not a fan and I don't see this as a snow scenario for the SE as depicted by the NAM. The thickness kinda sucks but the key factor here is the High pressure which is the source of the cold will slide off the east coast putting us on the back side of the High. This is not what we want to see.

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I'm not a fan and I don't see this as a snow scenario for the SE as depicted by the NAM. The thickness kinda sucks but the key factor here is the High pressure which is the source of the cold will slide off the east coast putting us on the back side of the High. This is not what we want to see.

Not sure what you're looking at but almost all the nomograms I've looked at show thicknesses that are supportive of snow.

And in it's time range, the NAM is not bad at all.

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I'm not a fan and I don't see this as a snow scenario for the SE as depicted by the NAM. The thickness kinda sucks but the key factor here is the High pressure which is the source of the cold will slide off the east coast putting us on the back side of the High. This is not what we want to see.

Certainly not the look we want for snow verbatim, but it could set up for the Monday night/Tuesday event for the mid-south.

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Not sure what you're looking at but almost all the nomograms I've looked at show thicknesses that are supportive of snow.

And in it's time range, the NAM is not bad at all.

I think he is talking about the end of the run which would setup for Tuesday. I don't really like that look either but then again I'm not in TN.

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Not sure what you're looking at but almost all the nomograms I've looked at show thicknesses that are supportive of snow.

And in it's time range, the NAM is not bad at all.

Those numbers are not going to get better, they are going to get worse as the high slides east.

I think he is talking about the end of the run which would setup for Tuesday. I don't really like that look either but then again I'm not in TN.

Pretty much, the disturbance that is in Texas at the end of the NAM run does not look like a snow producer. If it gets cranked up later on I couldn't say. I mean really where is the cold supposed to come from for snow?

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Those numbers are not going to get better, they are going to get worse as the high slides east.

Pretty much, the disturbance that is in Texas at the end of the NAM run does not look like a snow producer. If it gets cranked up later on I couldn't say. I mean really where is the cold supposed to come from for snow?

For this one it's going to be all about timing. We need the moisture to come in at night at the right time. Always a tough one to get around here...I think WNC has the best chance for this one (per the Euro). The Euro @138 had the 850's around the NC/VA border...of course what falls between 132 and 138 is what could be snow in WNC...but GA and most of TN is probably out of this one per the Euro. .

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Those numbers are not going to get better, they are going to get worse as the high slides east.

Pretty much, the disturbance that is in Texas at the end of the NAM run does not look like a snow producer. If it gets cranked up later on I couldn't say. I mean really where is the cold supposed to come from for snow?

According to the HPC the east based -NAO is retrograding which would help keep the cold bottled up longer. You're leaning on the negative side of things while I'm seeing the positive.

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Those numbers are not going to get better, they are going to get worse as the high slides east.

Pretty much, the disturbance that is in Texas at the end of the NAM run does not look like a snow producer. If it gets cranked up later on I couldn't say. I mean really where is the cold supposed to come from for snow?

I believe with the current model depiction the timing would have to be late night, early morning Tuesday for us to see frozen precip, then a change over to rain. Matthew East mentioned it on his video blog this morning. If it would occur at all.

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For this one it's going to be all about timing. We need the moisture to come in at night at the right time. Always a tough one to get around here...I think WNC has the best chance for this one (per the Euro). The Euro @138 had the 850's around the NC/VA border...of course what falls between 132 and 138 is what could be snow in WNC...but GA and most of TN is probably out of this one per the Euro. .

Obviously I am assuming you did not mean the 00z Euro ?...

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According to the HPC the east based -NAO is retrograding which would help keep the cold bottled up longer. You're leaning on the negative side of things while I'm seeing the positive.

Not to mention, with the very dry air, there will be evaporational cooling. That's why the euro looked so nice last night, temps are borderline to start, but the heavy precip cools the column down, surface gets close, but not quite to freezing. But with 1 inch per hour rates, and two days of very cold prior, it won't matter for tennessee.

BTW - one of the 6z ensemble members show 5-8 inches monday for middle and eastern tenn.

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Not to mention, with the very dry air, there will be evaporational cooling. That's why the euro looked so nice last night, temps are borderline to start, but the heavy precip cools the column down, surface gets close, but not quite to freezing. But with 1 inch per hour rates, and two days of very cold prior, it won't matter for tennessee.

BTW - one of the 6z ensemble members show 5-8 inches monday for middle and eastern tenn.

Bingo! Exactly what FFC had to say about it.

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Obviously I am assuming you did not mean the 00z Euro ?...

You are correct sir, after re looking at it TN is in the game...but just verbatim the 850 line and sfc temps looked iffy in TN @132 then iffy for everyone outside of VA @138. What am I missing? I saw the snow output on the Euro...but just based on SV it looked questionable.

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