MillzPirate Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Does everyone realize the gfs is 6 hrs off from blowing the f up off the SE coast? This is so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'm going to bed tonight feeling better than I could if ever 0z model suite was showing an epic historic blizzard within 24 hrs and MBY was ground zero: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah, it isn't as much cold chasing moisture as I had thought especially for Raleigh and WC NC, which get a few inches per 0Z Goofy. Is anyone staying up for the good doctor? I'm tempted to hit the sack. I don't see where you are getting accumulating snow from in NC. Both the surface temperatures and the air aloft are well above freezing until the moisture has left or is almost gone in all of NC, especially in the Raleigh area. This appears to me to be a classic case of the cold chasing the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 BTW: For those of you who wish to discuss the possible svr threat next week, Tony created a thread in the general forum for all the regions' posters to add their input. http://www.americanw...hur-216/unread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro looks better,gives Atlanta snow loving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I don't see where you are getting accumulating snow from in NC. Both the surface temperatures and the air aloft are well above freezing until the moisture has left or is almost gone in all of NC, especially in the Raleigh area. This appears to me to be a classic case of the cold chasing the moisture. It's there. No reason to talk specifics of an event 200+ hours out but I'll give it a go. The precip for Raleigh in question is between 240-252...the 540 line is on top of I-85 at 240 and in SC to the OBX by hr 252. Not to mention 850mb temps are well ok. Surface temps are -2c by 252 as well. Here is the critical thickness: @240 @252 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's there. No reason to talk specifics of an event 200+ hours out but I'll give it a go. The precip for Raleigh in question is between 240-252...the 540 line is on top of I-85 at 240 and in SC to the OBX by hr 252. Not to mention 850mb temps are well ok. Surface temps are -2c by 252 as well. Here is the critical thickness: @240 @252 You are correct, there is no need to analyze the details on something this far out since it is unlikely to occur, but this model is not showing accumulating snow in NC. There are only a few hundredths of an inch of precipitation that falls during that time period. And surface temps are no where near -2 at hour 252. They are close to 0 and that's not going to lead to accumulating snow with very light precipitation rates. At best it is a few flakes at the end and event that is questionable as the air really drys out fast behind this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro 0z LR....not meh. Lots of energy...a few decent cold shots and some lows bombing off the coast in the LR... +SN for TN, N GA, N SC, W NC, NC foothills and maybe even Piedmont for next Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 You are correct, there is no need to analyze the details on something this far out since it is unlikely to occur, but this model is not showing accumulating snow in NC. There are only a few hundredths of an inch of precipitation that falls during that time period. And surface temps are no where near -2 at hour 252. They are close to 0 and that's not going to lead to accumulating snow with very light precipitation rates. At best it is a few flakes at the end and event that is questionable as the air really drys out fast behind this system. 30F = -1.11 so I was 0.89C off. That's closer to -2C than it is to 0C. There is accumulating snow in NC as a whole, which was your original inquiry. According to the model, there are rates of 0.5"/hr in the mountains...enough for accumulating snow in NC through hour 252 IMO...can't read into the models any more than this without loading bufkit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 30F = -1.11 so I was 0.89C off. That's closer to -2C than it is to 0C. There is accumulating snow in NC as a whole, which was your original inquiry. According to the model, there are rates of 0.5"/hr in the mountains...enough for accumulating snow in NC through hour 252 IMO...can't read into the models any more than this without loading bufkit. At hour 240 it is well above freezing at the surface and the precipitation is all but finished. I will admit that the mountains have a shot of an inch or two in the highest elevations, but anywhere outside of the mountains would not see anything outside of a flake or two in the air at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Good morning. Looks like the 00z Suite started to converge on the idea that Areas in the Tennessee Valley region from Northern Arkansas, to Nrn Miss, Tennessee, Nrn Alabama and Nrn GA into the Carolinas need to monitor closely the developments around Monday night into Tuesday Early Morning. CMC/Nogaps/DGEX/ and even Euro are all on board of showing the moisture catching up to the Quickly evading cold airmass on the way out of the area next week. They show two disturbances moving through the area. The first arrives Monday night/Tuesday with some residual borderline cold air in place and the second a possible severe weather maker by Thursday. 00z Models show what coul be a possible quick Thumping of Snow for the Tennessee Valley areas Monday night into Tuesday morning moving from west to east. Now rather it sticks and accumulates would depend on temps and rates as we probably will be at or just above freezing but an interesting timeframe possible. GFS is not onboard of course last week it was the only model showing this potential but has since backed off. We will have to see if this trends better or worse todayt on the 12z Suite. Here are some images from last nights 00z Suite... 00z CMC: Nogaps: DGEX: Euro: Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 30F = -1.11 so I was 0.89C off. That's closer to -2C than it is to 0C. There is accumulating snow in NC as a whole, which was your original inquiry. According to the model, there are rates of 0.5"/hr in the mountains...enough for accumulating snow in NC through hour 252 IMO...can't read into the models any more than this without loading bufkit. Jon, stop trying you will never win the argument, it will continue until you finally ignore the conversation, trust me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 AFD snippet from GSP: THE LATEST 00Z GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS OUR CWFA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TUESDAY. AS THICKNESS VALUES DECREASE QUIT A BIT IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTRY TYPE PCPN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...I KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS WITH RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE LOWER PIEDMONT AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANY WINTRY PCPN WILL SWITCH TO RAIN SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING LVL. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. AFD snippet from ATL: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY COINCIDE WITH COLD AIR...LEADING TO SNOW IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AND COLD RAIN WELL INTO METRO ATLANTA. WHILE CONFIDENCE FOR THIS EVENT IS LOW...IT BEARS WATCHING FOR TRENDS. AFD snippet from MEG: MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER SPLIT FLOW AND A SERIES OF TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLETS PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL MOVE IN MONDAY MID MORNING THROUGH EVENING WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EVENT. ANY CHANGES IN EARLIER TIMING MAY REFLECT A HINT OF AN INITIAL FROZEN PRECIP AS PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF EXITING WEEKEND AIRMASS. AFD snippet from Little Rock: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY...WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING ACROSS THE STATE. MOISTURE WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF...WITH PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL THEN BE IF THERE WILL BE WARMER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN. AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES FARTHER NORTH...THERE WILL BE A SWITCHOVER TO ALL RAIN...EVEN ACROSS THE NORTH...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AS THE MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY MAY BE AFFECTED...AND ANY MINOR CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE...SPEED...OR MOISTURE COULD DRAMATICALLY AFFECT THE FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's a shame the cold doesn't get in here faster on Saturday night. The trend has been for the low to be closer to the coast and more moisture is showing up inland. The 0z euro was closer to the coast and the 6z gfs looked even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 FFC thinks snow... ATURDAY...CONTINUED AGREEMENT FROM 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...EVEN THE 00Z NAM HAS JOINED THE FRAY...WITH TROUGH PASSAGE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THIS TIMING OPENS THE WINDOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY WAKE-UP IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY MORNING. 00Z SATURDAY MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE UP IN NORTH GEORGIA THAT WOULD BE RIPE FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. BY 06Z...MODEL SOUNDINGS CLEARLY DEMONSTRATE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING CLOSE TO THE SURFACE THAT HELPS CREATE A BELOW-FREEZING COLUMN WHICH IS NECESSARY FOR SNOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS PERSIST WITH THE MOIST BELOW FREEZING COLUMN THROUGH 12Z. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING...SNOW MAY STICK LIGHTLY TO GRASSY SURFACES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR METRO ATLANTA AND POINTS SOUTH SHOW A WARMER COLUMN WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION LIQUID. SUNDAY/MONDAY...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM BRINGING LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD FALL BELOW THE 25 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY THRESHOLD CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY COINCIDE WITH COLD AIR...LEADING TO SNOW IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AND COLD RAIN WELL INTO METRO ATLANTA. WHILE CONFIDENCE FOR THIS EVENT IS LOW...IT BEARS WATCHING FOR TRENDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z NAM showing a little more moisture in northern TX compared to 00z @ 18HR. 0.27 -> 0.36. Trough slightly sharper off the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 A lot more gulf interaction with the s/w on 12z NAM @ 30HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z NAM is interesting because it holds back the energy in the baja and allows more separation for the vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Things will get interesting for the end of the week into Saturday. I think this low may be deeper and stronger than what the current models are forecasting. The next 48 hours will be fun to watch. I am excited about this weekend here in the mountains. Might get some pretty good snow but cold wil be nice to have around. Alos next week has my interest peeked. It is a few days out but the models have been having an event happen at the onset of precip for a couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Possible late phase on the NAM on EC coming? 12z VERSUS 00z. Much more intact as it crosses gulf states. 00z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Possible late phase on the NAM on EC coming? No, only thing I see that is different from yesterday is the southern vort being stronger and not dampening out as quickly as it moves east along the gulf coast. Frontal passage is well after this disturbance and associated moisture move through, implying no phase, and too warm for everyone. Mountains and maybe the foothills have a shot a -SN with the northern stream and flow behind it. I think some are forgetting, or do not know what a phase means and looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The 12Z NAM is VERY close to being a wintry threat for some parts of the southeast/Carolinas this weekend (especially VA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Breaking news from NOAA via Justin Kenney's twitter account; La Nina to weaken, dissipate this spring http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's close to popping something but the problem for people who could most benefit on this run (RDU and eastern Carolina) are the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Things will get interesting for the end of the week into Saturday. I think this low may be deeper and stronger than what the current models are forecasting. The next 48 hours will be fun to watch. I am excited about this weekend here in the mountains. Might get some pretty good snow but cold wil be nice to have around. Alos next week has my interest peeked. It is a few days out but the models have been having an event happen at the onset of precip for a couple of runs. Any reason to that line of thinking? I want to believe but just curious to why you think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Breaking news from NOAA via Justin Kenney's twitter account; La Nina to weaken, dissipate this spring http://www.cpc.ncep....ry/ensodisc.pdf Thanks for the update. That would be a good thing for the rest of spring and getting a diff pattern across the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The 12Z NAM is VERY close to being a wintry threat for some parts of the southeast/Carolinas this weekend (especially VA). Looks like va north to me, DC area may pick up an advisory level event. Note how it has trended warmer for NC, taking the 850 line from I95 on the 0z run @ 57 compared to almost I77 @ 45hrs this run. Coastal low is a little stronger and just off HAT, throwing more warm air inland. The cold front is just coming over the mtns at this time so there is really mechanism to prevent this "warm up.". I think we may even see it trend warmer, with a stronger moisture influx, taking SE VA out of the game, but DC is looking better than 24hrs ago that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I have a bunch of the P-Type Nomograms here http://www.daculaweather.com/nomogram_master.php And many are showing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Personally I'm more curious to see how the NAM looks at the end of it's run. Does it setup much like the Euro last night? Is it better or worse? I think this weekend is just too warm for most of us even if a system does pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I have a bunch of the P-Type Nomograms here http://www.daculawea...gram_master.php And many are showing snow. Thanks Steve for the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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