andyhb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It may be winter, but we are at the beginning of severe weather season in the deep south. I was talking about the reasons why some people may not be as focused on svr wx at this time of year. More specifically, in response to this post: Exactly. Is this thread for snow-weenies only? The 18z GFS along with its other members is showing a POSSIBLE significant severe weather event. Just because it isn't showing a raging blizzard no one seems to care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 00z GFS is pretty durn cold for this weekend. Colder than the 12z and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 00z GFS is very, very close to popping a surface low in the gulf. Actually shows very light snowfall for northern MS & northern/central AL by Friday night. Trend is good to see on the NAM/GFS. But maybe too little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not sure, but on this run San Fran could get a snow if the 00z is correct...it would be that kind of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 00z GFS is very, very close to popping a surface low in the gulf. Actually shows very light snowfall for northern MS & northern/central AL by Friday night. Yep I was thinking the same thing. It certainly should be something to watch. Each run of the NAM keeps wanting to trend it stronger as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 With this winter, I would take this in a heartbeat. Sad huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Exactly. Is this thread for snow-weenies only? The 18z GFS along with its other members is showing a POSSIBLE significant severe weather event. Just because it isn't showing a raging blizzard no one seems to care. 18Z GFS sure did have quite an ominous look for Dixie Alley into TN Valley with the system next week. This needs to be watched closely... 0Z runs will be interesting I'm interested in it, but tbh until we can get some parameters for the severe I'm not biting. It's not like it is the easiest thing to get a widespread outbreak in mid-February even in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 By 60HR, 1-1.5" of snow for most of Virginia per GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 What's even more amazing to me is that the 00z has a potent ULL traversing down the California coast. I know nothing about Cali climo...but could it be possible per the GFS for L.A. to see some snow if it played out exactly like that?? Or is that just totally out of the question? Ah per google I see that snow is certainly possible in L.A. and even last year they had flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 The GFS at 150 looks interesting. May be a very dynamic system coming Day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Fairly big changes on GFS at day 6-7, blocking, good western ridging, stronger PV in eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The GFS at 150 looks interesting. May be a very dynamic system coming Day 7 Looks to be heading to the OV to me. Just doesn't dig enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Fairly big changes on GFS at day 6-7, blocking, good western ridging, stronger PV in eastern Canada. The ridging is too far west I think, gonna cause energy to drop into the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Looks to be heading to the OV to me. Just doesn't dig enough. Well there is closed low in OK, closed low diving in from PAC NW and vort back in CA, lots of stuff going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not sure, but on this run San Fran could get a snow if the 00z is correct...it would be that kind of winter. I think you need at least -10 850's to get snow levels even down to the hills in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 And speaking of ridging I see the SE ridge possibly showing up at 169. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Fairly big changes on GFS at day 6-7, blocking, good western ridging, stronger PV in eastern Canada. Looks like that storm at day seven is going to end up being a lakes cutter. Don't those typically help to pull down a lot colder air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Looks to be heading to the OV to me. Just doesn't dig enough. Yeah, looks that way. I'll just take another severe weather system to follow. It's been quiet the past 7-10 days. I'm about ready for full bore spring mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Significant changes in upper atmosphere from 00z GFS to 12z GFS at days 6 and 7. Wonder what is to come.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I think you need at least -10 850's to get snow levels even down to the hills in the city Could a strong enough ULL though produce enough cold air for it though? Again not sure if the sea would play havoc on that or if it works the same way as here. Just looked interesting that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well out to 186 there is no cold air in the Southeast...but we'll see what the LR has in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Overall pattern changed from 12z to 00z, but it looks like it actually got worse in the long range? Is that even possible? Where's my therapist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Looks like that storm at day seven is going to end up being a lakes cutter. Don't those typically help to pull down a lot colder air? Well we lose the blocking at 168+ so the PV retreats north, which allows the SE ridge to come in, which I would guess would result in another cutter at 200+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 @240 there might be some snow in the SE hard to tell if it's a cold chasing the rain...great looking storm just too warm..but @240 still lots of moisture left in NC but it's hard to tell if it would be cold enough. Grain of salt yada yada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Folks, I'm sorry to have to say this and I know this must come as a major shock, but that first winter wx event of the 18Z Goofy doesn't look like it will appear on the 0Z Goofy. Unlike the 18Z, there's no sig. sfc Arctic high pressure coming down on the 0Z Goofy. Edit: that 0Z Goofy 2/18-19 event is mainly cold chasing moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Folks, I'm sorry to have to say this and I know this must come as a major shock, but that first winter wx event of the 18Z Goofy doesn't look like it will appear on the 0Z Goofy. Unlike the 18Z, there's no sig. sfc Arctic high pressure coming down on the 0Z Goofy. Edit: that 0Z Goofy 2/18-19 event is mainly cold chasing moisture. We always get the perfect tracks when there is no cold air around. That's life in the SE I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 If we are going to get snow we need blocking to settle in, we need it for a 10 day period, or we need perfect timing. We haven't had either all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The GFS at 150 looks interesting. May be a very dynamic system coming Day 7 Close to it, but the secondary jet streak that comes up behind the initial lead wave is unable to influence it/merge and form a larger-scale trough (ends up getting hung up on the Baja/SW), with less of a svr wx threat than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's at least something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's at least something Yeah, it isn't as much cold chasing moisture as I had thought especially for Raleigh and WC NC, which get a few inches per 0Z Goofy. Is anyone staying up for the good doctor? I'm tempted to hit the sack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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