Bevo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 This. The euro has been absolutely terrible past 7 days this year. Occasionally its caught on to something and held it, but the current trough for this weekend, if I remember correctly, was modeled to be out in the atlantic ocean 10 days ago. The last cut off low that dumped on colorado and nebraska, when it showed up on the 10 day euro, was a weird sandwich trough across the eastern us with snow across tennessee (that one certainly didn't verify) The gfs is not perfect... in fact, for whatever reason, its especially bad in the 3-7 day period, but its been pretty consistent with catching onto ideas even in the 10+ day range this year. In fact, while we aren't going to get a big miller a, it got the trough and the storm (of the fish variety)that will pop off the coast of NC from like 12 days on the ensembles. The MJO is moving into the colder phases. -NAO that no model picked up on starting to show, especially on the gfs and ukie. GFS even has the PV retrograding backwards quite quickly before the -nao breaks down. If the PNA breakdown doesn't happen, and if the -NAO holds, then cold is coming to the center of the country and at least the upper south has a chance at some winter. So then....we're in agreement? I do stand by the notion that model guidance failed to pick up on the NAO tanking soon - good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 18z doesn't look too bad across WNC. Perhaps some flurries? Very light precip...but it might be enough to spot some snow outside of the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Folks, The trend from 12Z Goofy continues. 18Z Goofy giveth snow to TN/far N AL and GA/parts of NC on 2/19-20! Stay tuned to this BB for later important updates. Edit: Then what appears to be some ZR falls in CAD regions of GA/SC/NC 2/22-23. Wow, just wow! OMG, winter has returned after a four hour absence lol. Thank goodness that the 18Z Goofy run exists! We should all give thanks to the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Hmmmm.....can someone conjour up a -AO/-NAO to go along with this from CPC.... For the U.S., upcoming forecast phases of the MJO favor a tendency for stronger jet streams to develop and one consequence of this may be higher chances for above-average precipitation across some areas of the southern tier of the U.S., not typical during La Nina. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Hmmmm.....can someone conjour up a -AO/-NAO to go along with this from CPC.... For the U.S., upcoming forecast phases of the MJO favor a tendency for stronger jet streams to develop and one consequence of this may be higher chances for above-average precipitation across some areas of the southern tier of the U.S., not typical during La Nina. http://www.cpc.ncep....O/mjoupdate.pdf Somebody call the CPC and tell them they are 4 months too late... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Yep, count me in... After the 1st week of March it becomes much more difficult to get winter-wx events outside of elevation. No real threats at-least for the next 7 days, maybe a miller B transfer from the OH Valley to Jersey coast around day 8-10, but that remains to be seen. We are going to have the cold this weekend but no moisture to speak of. After that we switch to a waa regime ahead of the next system. Another ~2 weeks of model watching the 192+hr fantasy range for possibilities, if nothing shows up, you can pretty much fire up the band. After the first week of march its almost impossible to get anything of consequence this far east although it has happened once in late march ( 8" of snow at that) since 1972. I hope we hold onto this pattern till at least late May then I hope it goes "cold" and we have decent summer, something similar to how it was 3-4 summers ago where we had a nice summer with plenty of cooler dryer air. The fishing on the sound was great that year, lots of backdoor fronts and days with temps in the 80's and low humidity.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Folks, The trend from 12Z Goofy continues. 18Z Goofy giveth snow to TN/far N AL and GA/parts of NC on 2/19-20! Stay tuned to this BB for later important updates. Edit: Then what appears to be some ZR falls in CAD regions of GA/SC/NC 2/22-23. Wow, just wow! OMG, winter has returned after a four hour absence lol. Thank goodness that the 18Z Goofy run exists! We should all give thanks to the NWS. This is shocking, Larry! Here I was thinking it was humans making pronouncements, that worked the weather, and you seem to been saying climatology plays some part! Gosh, I'm glad I don't give in until April, don't want to mess up and pronounce away my chances to see something, lol. Speaking of seeing something, I saw a Japanese cherry in full bloom today. Man, is the hammer ever going to come down on these arrogant plants and trees. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Folks, The trend from 12Z Goofy continues. 18Z Goofy giveth snow to TN/far N AL and GA/parts of NC on 2/19-20! Stay tuned to this BB for later important updates. Edit: Then what appears to be some ZR falls in CAD regions of GA/SC/NC 2/22-23. Wow, just wow! OMG, winter has returned after a four hour absence lol. Thank goodness that the 18Z Goofy run exists! We should all give thanks to the NWS. It has about a half inch for most of TN with some spots in the northern cumberland plateau getting an 1" I think. It's not much but something needs to stop my plants from blooming early. The other problem is that i still don't see where 4-8 will fall with a low developing several hundred miles east of every part of east tn. The only spot I could see it happening is above 6000' in the Smoky Mountains. Mt. Leconte apparently picked up an 1" or 2" today. I'll find out tomorrow as the obs come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 It has about a half inch for most of TN with some spots in the northern cumberland plateau getting an 1" I think. It's not much but something needs to stop my plants from blooming early. The only spot I could see it happening is above 6000' in the Smoky Mountains. Mt. Leconte apparently picked up an 1" or 2" today. I'll find out tomorrow as the obs come in. He's not talking about Mt Leconte to make his 4-8 prediction in east TN/western NC. He's speaking of lift that will be with the arctic front where the main energy remains north of I-40 and doesn't benefit anyone south of I-40. It's happened before, but that kind of a forecast has bust written all over it. My guess is less than a 10% chance of verifying the way he is seeing it. Of course Leconte will get snow. Heck they get snow in June occasionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Not that anyone listens to L.C., but since he mentioned E Tennessee and W North Carolina, thought this was appropriate to post here (from his Facebook page) Larry Cosgrove Here is the drill on the weekend situation. American models show no important precipitation event east of the Rocky Mountains. But Canadian and European versions certainly do. As best as I can tell, most of E TX/LA will see thunderstorms on Friday. That system fragments ahead of Arctic intrusion across Midwest and Northeast. Low pressure reforms to right of the cold dome near Norfolk VA, then deepens and heads northeastward. Bottom line: 4 - 8 inches of snow some parts of Appalachia (E TN/W NC into NY) and maybe 1 - 3 inches of snowfall in the Atlantic Coastal Plain above the James River. And it will be VERY cold from Great Plains to the East Coast in this cAk regime. Here is what GSP had to say about the weekend this afternoon: AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...ESTABLISHING A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL APPROACH THE CWFA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...WITH MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT INVOF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FCST SNDGS OVER THE NC MTNS SHOW MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING BY EVENING. THE PROFILES INDICATE A RAIN-SNOW EVENT...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS OVERNIGHT. THE BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS PRECIP WILL BE TRANSIENT...QUICKLY EXITING THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SFC FRONT SHUD BE THRU THE AREA BY THIS TIME...WITH NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING UNTIL MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN SATURDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NRN MTNS AND PERHAPS ABOVE 3500 FT IN THE CENTRAL MTNS...PROBABLY MOSTLY DUE TO THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONTOGENESIS THO...THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT (BUT ACCUM NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN A DUSTING). TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...AND MAY BE WARMER IF MID CLOUDS HOLD OFF TILL LATE IN THE DAY. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES EAST OF THE TN LINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 18z GFS screaming significant severe weather for the SE next week. Bigger story than any "potential" snow, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 And if the cold front drops in a bit sooner, it would be a heck of a snow event on the backside too. I'm inclined to think, given that it's February, a storm like this would have snow, despite it looking too warm. It closes off at 534. Weaker ulls have produced. Arkansas should take notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 18z GFS screaming significant severe weather for the SE next week. Bigger story than any "potential" snow, IMO. No worries, this will change a lot before verification time. Heck, it would not surprise me if the model lost the storm completely or show a sheared out system near Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 No worries, this will change a lot before verification time. Heck, it would not surprise me if the model lost the storm completely or show a sheared out system near Cuba. It has shown it for the past 3 days or more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 CFS and Euro Monthlies show a torch for March across much of N America....big surprise, I know...Euros are more seasonal in April and May...and June and July have slightly above at best while Aug has very little in the way of warm or cold anomalies across the entire US.... This made me smile These past two summers have been brutal here and I don't care to have a threepeat. Folks, The trend from 12Z Goofy continues. 18Z Goofy giveth snow to TN/far N AL and GA/parts of NC on 2/19-20! Stay tuned to this BB for later important updates. Edit: Then what appears to be some ZR falls in CAD regions of GA/SC/NC 2/22-23. Wow, just wow! OMG, winter has returned after a four hour absence lol. Thank goodness that the 18Z Goofy run exists! We should all give thanks to the NWS. Goofy says if I'm lucky I'll get 15 drops of rain on the 16th, 27 drops on the 20th, but on the 23rd I might have a puddle or two in the yard. Until then I'll be under sunny skies and no rain....sigh 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 0.78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well looking at the moisture and the cold front and a NW flow i like our chances in the fovored locals this weekend. Maybe a little to optimistic but today did something to me that sent some hope into me about the remainder of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 0.78 That is exactly .15 more than I've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well looking at the moisture and the cold front and a NW flow i like our chances in the fovored locals this weekend. Maybe a little to optimistic but today did something to me that sent some hope into me about the remainder of this winter. Good luck to you guys out west, you stand the best chance of seeing anything measurable out if this. I will say that the trend in the American guidance over the past several runs is slowly increasing qpf amounts in the northern mountains into SW VA. Kind of pathetic though when we count 0.15" as an increase but it is what is, a crappy winter. Inside of 60hrs I like a NAM/GFS blend for the most part on precip placement and amounts. Trend has also been to hold appreciable moisture closer to the coast, 18z gfs mems continue this, with 4,7, 9, & 10 throwing some moisture back, unlike the western part of the state, our nonograms look solidly in the rn category. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zf066.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Good luck to you guys out west, you stand the best chance of seeing anything measurable out if this. I will say that the trend in the American guidance over the past several runs is slowly increasing qpf amounts in the northern mountains into SW VA. Kind of pathetic though when we count 0.15" as an increase but it is what is, a crappy winter. Inside of 60hrs I like a NAM/GFS blend for the most part on precip placement and amounts. Trend has also been to hold appreciable moisture closer to the coast, 18z gfs mems continue this, with 4,7, 9, & 10 throwing some moisture back, unlike the western part of the state, our nonograms look solidly in the rn category. http://raleighwx.ame...rs/18zf066.html Thanks. Ya we could all use a little luck in the coming days. Just the mention of snow in the forecast is exciting but just shows you how crappy this winter has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 That is exactly .15 more than I've had. .02 on the 22nd,.06 on the 23rd and .09 on the 27th of last month was my last measurable rain. What I posted was what goofy was giving mby for the next 16 days I should plant cactus as it's the only thing that would thrive with this environment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Good luck to you guys out west, you stand the best chance of seeing anything measurable out if this. I will say that the trend in the American guidance over the past several runs is slowly increasing qpf amounts in the northern mountains into SW VA. Kind of pathetic though when we count 0.15" as an increase but it is what is, a crappy winter. Inside of 60hrs I like a NAM/GFS blend for the most part on precip placement and amounts. Trend has also been to hold appreciable moisture closer to the coast, 18z gfs mems continue this, with 4,7, 9, & 10 throwing some moisture back, unlike the western part of the state, our nonograms look solidly in the rn category. http://raleighwx.ame...rs/18zf066.html Why thats a raging blizzard this year. Here's hoping that we can get the ground white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not staying up for anything else tonight so going to leave it with the nam. 0z breaks off a small vort packet from the Baja ULL, kind of interacts with the other parcel coming through NM, and ejects east, dampening out, but still visible this run near southern LA. Result, moisture return into the coastal carolinas, went from nothing last run to almost 0.5", valid at +57hrs. BL is not even close, all rn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Here is 60hrs, 850's so close, layer below that pretty far away. There is always a lag in 1. Cold air arriving as scheduled, 2. Warm air near the surface being mixed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not staying up for anything else tonight so going to leave it with the nam. 0z breaks off a small vort packet from the Baja ULL, kind of interacts with the other parcel coming through NM, and ejects east, dampening out, but still visible this run near southern LA. Result, moisture return into the coastal carolinas, went from nothing last run to almost 0.5", valid at +57hrs. BL is not even close, all rn 15% battery and 7 windows open...love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It has shown it for the past 3 days or more... Exactly. Is this thread for snow-weenies only? The 18z GFS along with its other members is showing a POSSIBLE significant severe weather event. Just because it isn't showing a raging blizzard no one seems to care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Exactly. Is this thread for snow-weenies only? The 18z GFS along with its other members is showing a POSSIBLE significant severe weather event. Just because it isn't showing a raging blizzard no one seems to care. Some of us do. We're just the silent majority. Keep talkin'...we're listenin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well, it is Winter and posters are going to be more inclined to post about winter weather, considering many haven't seen diddly squat worth of that this year and svr wx essentially being the complete opposite over the past year or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 its winter and it should be snow, we'll take the severe weather in the spring when we're suppose to get severe weather. we'll take snow since its WINTER! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well, it is Winter and posters are going to be more inclined to post about winter weather, considering many haven't seen diddly squat worth of that this year and svr wx essentially being the complete opposite over the past year or so. 18Z GFS sure did have quite an ominous look for Dixie Alley into TN Valley with the system next week. This needs to be watched closely... 0Z runs will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well, it is Winter and posters are going to be more inclined to post about winter weather, considering many haven't seen diddly squat worth of that this year and svr wx essentially being the complete opposite over the past year or so. It may be winter, but we are at the beginning of severe weather season in the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.