valkhorn Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 This thread is not intended to be for any global warming debate. If you want to discuss it, take it to the climate forum. I already said that in a previous post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Sure don't hate the nao block on the 12z. If that continues to hold, I'd imagine arctic highs will be coming down by the end of the week. Also - still appears that there's a band of evaporational cooling driven snow in the mon/tues timeframe for tennessee before changing to rain. Its hard to see on the globals because of the resolution, but its certainly there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 12z Goofy close call to winter storm some areas 2/20-1 *fwiw* (probably some light snow northern fringes including KATL). That's less than two weeks from now! Keep hope alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 12z Goofy close call to winter storm some areas 2/20-1 *fwiw* (probably some light snow northern fringes including KATL). Keep hope alive! Yep it keeps dangling the carrot for us. Hard to buy into though with it loosing our GOM storm..plus I'm out of chips Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Yep it keeps dangling the carrot for us. Hard to buy into though with it loosing our GOM storm..plus I'm out of chips You're a wise man lol. Regardless, this is one of the things that makes winter so much fun in the SE since once in a blue moon, when you least expect it, one will materialize and give some of us magical moments. At least it is less than two weeks from now...something for which to be thankful. Let's see if 12Z Doc starts setting up for that kind of thing at the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 You're a wise man lol. Regardless, this is one of the things that makes winter so much fun in the SE since once in a while, when you least expect it, one will materialize and give some of us magical moments. At least it is less than two weeks from now...something for which to be thankful. Let's see if 12Z Doc starts setting up for that kind of thing at the end of its run. You mean like this? Looks like a decent set up for SE snow to me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 You mean like this? Looks like a decent set up for SE snow to me.... Players on the field would have to move around quite a bit. HP is way out there and nothing to the N/NW. Overall a pretty warm look I'd say. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 You mean like this? Looks like a decent set up for SE snow to me.... Not that. That's a different setup there on 0Z Doc. I want to see a 1040+ mb high plunge down into the Dakotas ~2/18 on the 12Z Doc. We can dream thank goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Yep it keeps dangling the carrot for us. Hard to buy into though with it loosing our GOM storm..plus I'm out of chips I knew it would come to this! Don't worry, Burgerman, I've got your back. I held out some chips for you, knowing that the changes would be slower than wished for We've got some sort of consensus on colder air, colder at least than the recent 70's. Goofy has lost the storm, which bodes well. Watch for the Doc. to find it in the next few days. Your present bet might work out after all...still several days to work into shape. Already KFFC has mentioned snow...though it also mentioned having trouble finding the ground...but, what the heck. Baby steps......we might see something in Feb. yet, and if not, well, there is always March, lol. We must take a page from Larry's WeatherZen handbook. He just pushes things out 2 weeks, and stays content T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Not that. That's a different setup there on 0Z Doc. I want to see a 1040+ mb high plunge down into the Dakotas ~2/18 on the 12Z Doc. We can dream thank goodness. Honestly - the 0z Euro at 240 looks more likely to be a closed ULL. But if the 12z Euro bites on rebuilding the PNA and Holds the blocking at least through 168, then there will more than likely be a decent arctic high coming down around day 10 with an active southern stream. GFS and ensembles (and the euro for that matter) have been interested in a big low pressure somewhere in the east in that period. If we get an arctic high with this system (assuming that the op/ensemble are correct that a big low will happen there) someone in the east/se or ohio valley will get dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Not that anyone listens to L.C., but since he mentioned E Tennessee and W North Carolina, thought this was appropriate to post here (from his Facebook page) Larry Cosgrove Here is the drill on the weekend situation. American models show no important precipitation event east of the Rocky Mountains. But Canadian and European versions certainly do. As best as I can tell, most of E TX/LA will see thunderstorms on Friday. That system fragments ahead of Arctic intrusion across Midwest and Northeast. Low pressure reforms to right of the cold dome near Norfolk VA, then deepens and heads northeastward. Bottom line: 4 - 8 inches of snow some parts of Appalachia (E TN/W NC into NY) and maybe 1 - 3 inches of snowfall in the Atlantic Coastal Plain above the James River. And it will be VERY cold from Great Plains to the East Coast in this cAk regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aanance Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Have to admit it was nice to see some sleet as the rain started here in Wake Forest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Regarding the weekend cold shot, the 12Z Euro continues to be much colder than the GFS- by Saturday the GFS only has the ATL 850mb temp barely below zero, the Euro brings us all the way to about -9. In NC, the Euro has most of the state less than -12, the GFS about -5 to -9. Here in ATL the surface temps get below 25F, the GFS only about 30. Personally I am rootng for the GFS, Iif it gets very cold, it will do a number on the blooms that have already proliferating, since we will not see frozen precip except in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Have to admit it was nice to see some sleet as the rain started here in Wake Forest Just so you know, we have a February OBS thread for that. I just reported some myself. Glad I'm not crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Not that anyone listens to L.C., but since he mentioned E Tennessee and W North Carolina, thought this was appropriate to post here (from his Facebook page) Larry Cosgrove Here is the drill on the weekend situation. American models show no important precipitation event east of the Rocky Mountains. But Canadian and European versions certainly do. As best as I can tell, most of E TX/LA will see thunderstorms on Friday. That system fragments ahead of Arctic intrusion across Midwest and Northeast. Low pressure reforms to right of the cold dome near Norfolk VA, then deepens and heads northeastward. Bottom line: 4 - 8 inches of snow some parts of Appalachia (E TN/W NC into NY) and maybe 1 - 3 inches of snowfall in the Atlantic Coastal Plain above the James River. And it will be VERY cold from Great Plains to the East Coast in this cAk regime. The problem with that is 'East TN' isn't very specific as it ranges about 6000' in elevation and the weather in Unicoi county can be wildly different than Hamilton. I'm guessing he's referring to the tri-cities area and Unicoi county (northeast of Morristown). EDIT: If 441 is open this weekend I may try to hike to Clingmans Dome. It might be a really raw day up there on Saturday with morning lows around 20F falling throughout the day. It'll probably be about 10F - 15F on Clingman's Dome that afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The problem with that is 'East TN' isn't very specific as it ranges about 6000' in elevation and the weather in Unicoi county can be wildly different than Hamilton. I'm guessing he's referring to the tri-cities area and Unicoi county (northeast of Morristown). EDIT: If 441 is open this weekend I may try to hike to Clingmans Dome. It might be a really raw day up there on Saturday with morning lows around 20F falling throughout the day. It'll probably be about 10F - 15F on Clingman's Dome that afternoon. The other problem is that i still don't see where 4-8 will fall with a low developing several hundred miles east of every part of east tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 12Z Doc LR....meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Im guessing the " snow " in the plains that was on the 00z euro is not on this run for next week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Have to admit it was nice to see some sleet as the rain started here in Wake Forest WRAL had a high of 55 for today. I don't think that was even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Regarding the weekend cold shot, the 12Z Euro continues to be much colder than the GFS- by Saturday the GFS only has the ATL 850mb temp barely below zero, the Euro brings us all the way to about -9. In NC, the Euro has most of the state less than -12, the GFS about -5 to -9. Here in ATL the surface temps get below 25F, the GFS only about 30. Personally I am rootng for the GFS, Iif it gets very cold, it will do a number on the blooms that have already proliferating, since we will not see frozen precip except in the mountains. Well, we are only in early February, so we are guaranteed to have temps below 25 between now and April. I think I'd rather have a hard freeze now than in late March or April when everything is blooming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Well, we are only in early February, so we are guaranteed to have temps below 25 between now and April. I think I'd rather have a hard freeze now than in late March or April when everything is blooming. Agreed - although I have a sneaking suspicion that we'll get the late freeze monster regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Man, the Day 10 Euro is one ugly looking map -- +NAO -PNA, +AO -- basically no redeeming features at all. I hereby declare the Winter of 2011-2012 to be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Man, the Day 10 Euro is one ugly looking map -- +NAO -PNA, +AO -- basically no redeeming features at all. I hereby declare the Winter of 2011-2012 to be over. Winter is officially over until the 18Z Goofy is released lol. See you and everyone else in three hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Man, the Day 10 Euro is one ugly looking map -- +NAO -PNA, +AO -- basically no redeeming features at all. I hereby declare the Winter of 2011-2012 to be over. CFS and Euro Monthlies show a torch for March across much of N America....big surprise, I know...Euros are more seasonal in April and May...and June and July have slightly above at best while Aug has very little in the way of warm or cold anomalies across the entire US.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Euro ensembles not good at all but this is not unexpected. Saying "winter is over" is premature but the next 1- 2 weeks look pretty bleak IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Euro ensembles not good at all but this is not unexpected. Saying "winter is over" is prenmature but the next 1- 2 weeks look pretty bleak IMO. If bleak means a continuation of warm and dry regime... I'll take 50% of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTriadwx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Man, the Day 10 Euro is one ugly looking map -- +NAO -PNA, +AO -- basically no redeeming features at all. I hereby declare the Winter of 2011-2012 to be over. Did it ever really start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 If bleak means a continuation of warm and dry regime... I'll take 50% of that. Yep, count me in... After the 1st week of March it becomes much more difficult to get winter-wx events outside of elevation. No real threats at-least for the next 7 days, maybe a miller B transfer from the OH Valley to Jersey coast around day 8-10, but that remains to be seen. We are going to have the cold this weekend but no moisture to speak of. After that we switch to a waa regime ahead of the next system. Another ~2 weeks of model watching the 192+hr fantasy range for possibilities, if nothing shows up, you can pretty much fire up the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Man, the Day 10 Euro is one ugly looking map -- +NAO -PNA, +AO -- basically no redeeming features at all. I hereby declare the Winter of 2011-2012 to be over. C'mon now...it's not like the Euro has been that stellar in it's progs more than 5 days out. The GFS has won most of those battles since November, yet we still follow in allegiance the mighty King Euro. Global long range modeling/forecasting has been a pure ribbon of @#*&. Ask Europe how that "warmer than normal" winter is going for them right now. However, I'll be in line right behind you 2 weeks from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 C'mon now...it's not like the Euro has been that stellar in it's progs more than 5 days out. The GFS has won most of those battles since November, yet we still follow in allegiance the mighty King Euro. Global long range modeling/forecasting has been a pure ribbon of @#*&. Ask Europe how that "warmer than normal" winter is going for them right now. However, I'll be in line right behind you 2 weeks from now This. The euro has been absolutely terrible past 7 days this year. Occasionally its caught on to something and held it, but the current trough for this weekend, if I remember correctly, was modeled to be out in the atlantic ocean 10 days ago. The last cut off low that dumped on colorado and nebraska, when it showed up on the 10 day euro, was a weird sandwich trough across the eastern us with snow across tennessee (that one certainly didn't verify) The gfs is not perfect... in fact, for whatever reason, its especially bad in the 3-7 day period, but its been pretty consistent with catching onto ideas even in the 10+ day range this year. In fact, while we aren't going to get a big miller a, it got the trough and the storm (of the fish variety)that will pop off the coast of NC from like 12 days on the ensembles. The MJO is moving into the colder phases. -NAO that no model picked up on starting to show, especially on the gfs and ukie. GFS even has the PV retrograding backwards quite quickly before the -nao breaks down. If the PNA breakdown doesn't happen, and if the -NAO holds, then cold is coming to the center of the country and at least the upper south has a chance at some winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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