SN_Lover Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 AO is forecasted to dramatically increase to positive.... http://www.cpc.ncep...._index/ao.shtml PNA forecasted to go negative, all models agree on this. http://www.cpc.ncep....k/pna/pna.shtml And ALL models have been consistent this winter....lol Every model deviating left and right on solutions now. NCEP is calling for below average temps, while CPC is calling for above. The models can't stay consistent, so that negates them for the long range. Everything is up in the air now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 GFS still is a zombie through 60. 108 colder compared to 12z. 114HR, high pressure still dominating the mid-south. Ominous severe weather look on GFS day 8. What sort of mischief is he cmc up to at 72?? Missed the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 AO is forecasted to dramatically increase to positive.... http://www.cpc.ncep...._index/ao.shtml PNA forecasted to go negative, all models agree on this. http://www.cpc.ncep....k/pna/pna.shtml I suppose it's a difference of perspective, because I read The Ensemble Mean PNA Outlook as implying a neutral forecast at this point...just my opinion though, with a little optimist bias... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Are you talking about Global Warming, or just change of seasons? Those points don't always get snow every year, or even every 5 years. Those points are also in the south, where it can be warm in the winter. These threads remind me of the tropics threads. Every time a depression forms and strengthens people are always talking about it developing into some major hurricane. When any system weakens people act like it'll dissipate tomorrow. And, here, when there is the chance at a GFS storm or fantasy storm at any range the hopes get up, and then when the models take away a storm the hopes get dashed to ribbons. Let's face it, the earth is getting gradually warmer every year and this is going to happen more and more. We also can't really pick and choose what weather we'll have from day to day so you just have to accept it at what it is and say that is that. It might snow in the last part of February or early March. It might not. Whatever will be, will be. You're welcome to discuss this in the appropriate forum since I lurk there a lot, but now you know where I stand on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Those who enjoy a good old-fashioned dry cold airmass should rejoice if the 0Z Doc ends up being accurate since it is quite a bit colder than the 12Z Doc for this weekend in the SE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 It phased but it was too late ......so close to being huge east coast snow Its the closet the euro has been lately that's for sure Ukie looked good as well. Description ..... tall ridge and trough really digs south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Ominous severe weather look on GFS day 8. Yet another run of the GFS with a big potential system in this time frame. That trough in the west at the end of the hi-res period definitely looks to have potential if it were to eject eastward as one consolidated piece of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 0Z Doc: as mentioned the weekend looks colder (but dry) but meh in the LR. Nighty night, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I'll take the JMA please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I'll take the JMA please... Even if it is correct, I imagine most of that precip probably falls before it's cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 From FFC this morning LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN...WITH THE SLIGHTEST POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNOW MIXED IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN NORTH GEORGIA SUGGEST AIR COLD ENOUGH TO SEE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT THE LOWER LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY AND THE CHANCE OF FLAKES OR FLURRIES SURVIVING TO THE GROUND IS QUESTIONABLE. IF EVAPORATIONAL COOLING IS EFFECTIVE...IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL AND A FEW FLURRIES SURVIVE TO THE GROUND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT ALL IN THE MORNING SINCE MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING SO GREATLY...WITH THE 00Z NAM HAVING THE FRONT BACK IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT 12Z SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Even if it is correct, I imagine most of that precip probably falls before it's cold enough for snow. It's close enough at our 96...and if it's taking a Miller A track my speculation would be that the timing could be right...but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I imagine if the euro is onto something- it will trend even better at 12z. Gotta say - pissed in Nashville to be getting precip with 850s plenty cold but bl down being so warm Friday. It looks great til you dig in the data. Here's to hoping for a phase at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I do believe this is the first time this winter I have seen MHX use the word snow in a AFD...from their overnight HEIGHTS WILL LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE POLAR VORTEX SHIFTS SE IN PIECES. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRONGER ARCTIC INTRUSION INTO EASTERN NC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING AS SOME MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE 50-55 DEGREES. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WINDY/BREEZY AND VERY COLD DAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 And I'll remind everyone again what HM posted a few days ago. Timing etc will come down to a few days in advance at best. "Just a word of warning...for all of you who don't remember...last year at this time when the AAM state was changing etc. it lead to a significant model forecast degradation during that period (late Jan-early Feb). I suspect this is likely again, so expect, at the very least, wild shifts in timing in the day 2-5 period. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 FWIW---- JB thinks low develops off NC coast and gives NE snow this weekend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 FWIW---- JB thinks low develops off NC coast and gives NE snow this weekend.... Seems reasonable, the 12z Euro formed the low east of Boston, the 0z run formed off NC coast, that's a 400+ mile shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Seems reasonable, the 12z Euro formed the low east of Boston, the 0z run formed off NC coast, that's a 400+ mile shift. just tells you the phase trended earlier, lets hope it continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 just tells you the phase trended earlier, lets hope it continues Yeah, was very surprised to see so much southern stream interaction, I was kind of surprised the phase wasn't even better....it will probably change at 12z to less of a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I'm surprised no one is talking about the 00z Euro. 00Z Euro shows significant snowstorm for TX through mid-south in Day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 EE rule in effect... I think the 12z NAM has the right idea, supported by the 0z ECMWF to a certain extent. That is you primary forming off the SE coast around 72hrs. I don't see the southern stream energy coming into much play, except maybe juicing up the front as it is draped accross S FL. This is going to be a dominat northern stream setup, energy inbound induces cyclogenesis likely off the coast of NC and it is OTS thereafter. Sorry, I do not see this getting close enough to the coast to impact NE as JB thinks it will. Could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I'm surprised no one is talking about the 00z Euro. 00Z Euro shows significant snowstorm for TX through mid-south in Day 6. I don't trust this storm until we can see how things play out this weekend. I'm hoping beyond hope that enough ridging builds into greenland that the pv rotates and drops a reinforcing shot of cold air in as this storm approaches, so its not a snow to rain solution (which is what is currently being modeled) 18z gfs had it too.... honestly, it looks driven almost entirely by evaporational cooling, causing a heavy burst of snow and accumulation, followed by rain. I'll take it this year, as its better than nothing. But still annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Those points don't always get snow every year, or even every 5 years. Those points are also in the south, where it can be warm in the winter. These threads remind me of the tropics threads. Every time a depression forms and strengthens people are always talking about it developing into some major hurricane. When any system weakens people act like it'll dissipate tomorrow. And, here, when there is the chance at a GFS storm or fantasy storm at any range the hopes get up, and then when the models take away a storm the hopes get dashed to ribbons. Let's face it, the earth is getting gradually warmer every year and this is going to happen more and more. We also can't really pick and choose what weather we'll have from day to day so you just have to accept it at what it is and say that is that. It might snow in the last part of February or early March. It might not. Whatever will be, will be. This thread is not intended to be for any global warming debate. If you want to discuss it, take it to the climate forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I'm surprised no one is talking about the 00z Euro. 00Z Euro shows significant snowstorm for TX through mid-south in Day 6. Meh, 1-2 inch totals in a borderline event may not even be accumulating snow. But I'm sure it would be pretty if it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Already through 24 hours on the GFS it differs from the 0z Euro. The 0z Euro had some interaction between the energy affecting the MA today, which was strung out back to the west and from the piece of energy dropping in from the pacific NW. The 12z GFS is closer than the 0z run but not anything like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Man we have read the bold statement below a lot this winter.. Already through 24 hours on the GFS it differs from the 0z Euro. The 0z Euro had some interaction between the energy affecting the MA today, which was strung out back to the west and from the piece of energy dropping in from the pacific NW. The 12z GFS is closer than the 0z run but not anything like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Meh, 1-2 inch totals in a borderline event may not even be accumulating snow. But I'm sure it would be pretty if it verified. 1"-2" around here would be significant by Winter 2012 standards . I do think we'll have a week or so shot at something given all the energy - if guidance is close to being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 hmmm that energy out west isn't getting squashed to Mexico at 105...could this get interesting? I have a feeling the cold retreats as soon as the moisture comes in later down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 hmmm that energy out west isn't getting squashed to Mexico at 105...could this get interesting? I have a feeling the cold retreats as soon as the moisture comes in later down the line. That's a pretty safe bet, the High with the source of the cold is in a bad position to keep it cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 That's a pretty safe bet, the High with the source of the cold is in a bad position to keep it cold. Yep @120 looks to keep it headed to the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.