CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Yeah, winter is over, hard to believe we won't even sniff a flake, definitely taking this one on the chin, I think it will only be the 2nd time in 100+ years without atleast a trace a snow. Also unfortunately after a season of less than 1" in RDU we usually back it up with another stinker, I think it's like 5 out of the past six times. Do you really believe that?....with less than a 2% chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Yeah, winter is over, hard to believe we won't even sniff a flake, definitely taking this one on the chin, I think it will only be the 2nd time in 100+ years without atleast a trace a snow. Also unfortunately after a season of less than 1" in RDU we usually back it up with another stinker, I think it's like 5 out of the past six times. My grandfather is in his 70's and says this is the first winter he can remember when we didn't get even one single flake or pellet of sleet. An historically bad winter for sure. One for the record books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Do you really believe that?....with less than a 2% chance of verifying. I think we will suck out and get a dusting of sorts, I hope not though, I would prefer to have this be the 2nd worst winter ever or actually tied for the worst :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I know this winter has been depressing but you would think an nice GFS fantasy storm would at least get mentioned.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I know this winter has been depressing but you would think an nice GFS fantasy storm would at least get mentioned.... Not this winter, no such thing as a fantasy anymore!!! Get it to within 5 days then it will be fantasy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I know this winter has been depressing but you would think an nice GFS fantasy storm would at least get mentioned.... Even the fantasy storms have been ho-hum this winter, underperforming in the 300+ hr 18z GFS sense, where in years past super bombs were a dime a dozen past 300 hrs on the global. We could be looking at a pretty potent MS-OH Valley runner second half of next week though, maybe another sig svr outbreak for portion of the SE. 12z Euro had a 993 over OH at 216, 18z GFS was slower, storm formed around 256 hrs, but still the general flavor. Support is there from the ens members, in the absence of winter weather might as well get our Svr season off to an early start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Even the fantasy storms have been ho-hum this winter, underperforming in the 300+ hr 18z GFS sense, where in years past super bombs were a dime a dozen past 300 hrs on the global. We could be looking at a pretty potent MS-OH Valley runner second half of next week though, maybe another sig svr outbreak for portion of the SE. 12z Euro had a 993 over OH at 216, 18z GFS was slower, storm formed around 256 hrs, but still the general flavor. Support is there from the ens members, in the absence of winter weather might as well get our Svr season off to an early start. Oh I agree no super bombs but at this point even a 3 - 4 inch storm is a fantasy. Personally I'm almost checked out of this winter and just accepting something may not happen...but might as well hope even if it's the 18z and it's just a regular snow for this area. I'm personally not a fan of tracking Svr weather just a good ol winter weenie here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Hang in there guys. Things may get better. I do like this setup for the mountains coming up. Looks like some snow tomorrow morning in the mountains. Not much accum at all but hey will be nice to see it falling. I thing that we will see snow this weekend in the mountains and also looking out there could be possibly some big snows for the mountains in the near future. This is all relevant to the mountains but i do hope that everyone gets in on the action before the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Gfs and it's ensbles have been Locked onto something big in this time frame for 4 days. It's started out in the ensembles around hours 288, and it's moving pretty close to truncation... Which will be interesting Honestly though - 18z gfs jumped on the snow for the midsouth mon/tues bandwagon with the euro. It's showing snow for most of Tennessee, appears quick evaporation cooling brings the column down enough to support a quick burst of heavy snow before changing back to rain. Those north of a tupelo to Atlanta to Charlotte line should not give up on winter... The pattern continues to look favorable despite teleconnections not being perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenny Marie Photo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Wow I didn't think winter ended until March. I will hold onto hope until I see first day of Spring on the calendar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Wow I didn't think winter ended until March. I will hold onto hope until I see first day of Spring on the calendar Ah, the eternal optimist, that was me until about 2 weeks ago when I gave up... we have a lot of things going against us, the PNA is breaking down this weekend, the AO is going positive, the NAO is not going negative, so best case scenario, the warm up that occurs next week ends by the following weekend and we somehow get into a "winter" pattern by Feb 19-20th, we will at best have 2 week of winter, with no snow cover to our north it's going to be that much tougher. It is crazy, it's essentially been warm here since November, can it really be warm for 4-5 straight months, maybe we will get a cooler summer . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Gfs and it's ensbles have been Locked onto something big in this time frame for 4 days. It's started out in the ensembles around hours 288, and it's moving pretty close to truncation... Which will be interesting Honestly though - 18z gfs jumped on the snow for the midsouth mon/tues bandwagon with the euro. It's showing snow for most of Tennessee, appears quick evaporation cooling brings the column down enough to support a quick burst of heavy snow before changing back to rain. Those north of a tupelo to Atlanta to Charlotte line should not give up on winter... The pattern continues to look favorable despite teleconnections not being perfect. I guess what you are saying is that if you are in Birmingham, Atlanta, and Columbia winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 You can never rule out a freak big storm or ull. But I don't see any cold air intrusions making it that far south and hanging around for any significant amount of time. The midsouth can still do ok without major, sustained blocking. It's harder for you guys, and it gets harder every day after feb 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Thru 60, the 00z NAM is looking mighty interesting. Kind of looks much like the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 @84 the NAM doesn't look too bad. Some energy out in TX heading east...but that GOM low still looks a little too far south to do any damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The NAM is interesting. At 72-78HR, the s/w swings around through MEX and the pj starts to phase somewhat over TX. At the same time, there is a piece of the PV breaking off and rotating down as well. Hmmmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Ah, the eternal optimist, that was me until about 2 weeks ago when I gave up... we have a lot of things going against us, the PNA is breaking down this weekend, the AO is going positive, the NAO is not going negative, so best case scenario, the warm up that occurs next week ends by the following weekend and we somehow get into a "winter" pattern by Feb 19-20th, we will at best have 2 week of winter, with no snow cover to our north it's going to be that much tougher. It is crazy, it's essentially been warm here since November, can it really be warm for 4-5 straight months, maybe we will get a cooler summer . When was it concluded that the NAO would not be going negative? Seriously - that's not a sarcastic remark. I have not been able to follow much today...did that possibility breakdown too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Even the fantasy storms have been ho-hum this winter, underperforming in the 300+ hr 18z GFS sense, where in years past super bombs were a dime a dozen past 300 hrs on the global. We could be looking at a pretty potent MS-OH Valley runner second half of next week though, maybe another sig svr outbreak for portion of the SE. 12z Euro had a 993 over OH at 216, 18z GFS was slower, storm formed around 256 hrs, but still the general flavor. Support is there from the ens members, in the absence of winter weather might as well get our Svr season off to an early start. Yeah, it's been pretty consistent especially considering we're 8+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 When was it concluded that the NAO would not be going negative? Seriously - that's not a sarcastic remark. I have not been able to follow much today...did that possibility breakdown too? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Ah, the eternal optimist, that was me until about 2 weeks ago when I gave up... we have a lot of things going against us, the PNA is breaking down this weekend, the AO is going positive, the NAO is not going negative, so best case scenario, the warm up that occurs next week ends by the following weekend and we somehow get into a "winter" pattern by Feb 19-20th, we will at best have 2 week of winter, with no snow cover to our north it's going to be that much tougher. It is crazy, it's essentially been warm here since November, can it really be warm for 4-5 straight months, maybe we will get a cooler summer . Where are you getting this from? Is this your own perspective or are you deriving conclusions from models? The AO is currently trending negative. The PNA has only gone down by like a hundredths of a decimal place in a day. But the NAO is rapidly increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I guess what you are saying is that if you are in Birmingham, Atlanta, and Columbia winter is over. Those points don't always get snow every year, or even every 5 years. Those points are also in the south, where it can be warm in the winter. These threads remind me of the tropics threads. Every time a depression forms and strengthens people are always talking about it developing into some major hurricane. When any system weakens people act like it'll dissipate tomorrow. And, here, when there is the chance at a GFS storm or fantasy storm at any range the hopes get up, and then when the models take away a storm the hopes get dashed to ribbons. Let's face it, the earth is getting gradually warmer every year and this is going to happen more and more. We also can't really pick and choose what weather we'll have from day to day so you just have to accept it at what it is and say that is that. It might snow in the last part of February or early March. It might not. Whatever will be, will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Those points don't always get snow every year, or even every 5 years. Those points are also in the south, where it can be warm in the winter. These threads remind me of the tropics threads. Every time a depression forms and strengthens people are always talking about it developing into some major hurricane. When any system weakens people act like it'll dissipate tomorrow. And, here, when there is the chance at a GFS storm or fantasy storm at any range the hopes get up, and then when the models take away a storm the hopes get dashed to ribbons. Let's face it, the earth is getting gradually warmer every year and this is going to happen more and more. We also can't really pick and choose what weather we'll have from day to day so you just have to accept it at what it is and say that is that. It might snow in the last part of February or early March. It might not. Whatever will be, will be. Are you talking about Global Warming, or just change of seasons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Let's face it, the earth is getting gradually warmer every year and this is going to happen more and more. We also can't really pick and choose what weather we'll have from day to day so you just have to accept it at what it is and say that is that. It might snow in the last part of February or early March. It might not. Whatever will be, will be. Boy, if you didn't just open a can of worms with that statement... Oh, and still no cliff diving from here. I'm in the eternal optimist camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Where are you getting this from? Is this your own perspective or are you deriving conclusions from models? The AO is currently trending negative. The PNA has only gone down by like a hundredths of a decimal place in a day. But the NAO is rapidly increasing. AO is forecasted to dramatically increase to positive.... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml PNA forecasted to go negative, all models agree on this. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 http://www.cpc.ncep....k/pna/nao.shtml Ah - I see what you're referring to. Personally, I'm not taking anything as gospel regarding a long term forecast - especially right now with such atmospheric chaos. It absolutely may verify that way...or the joke may be on us. Europe probably has an opinion on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Euro slams Arkansas in 7 days with half a foot of snow. Hell, I can drive there. A friend in Colorado just had near 20" of snow. Parts of the country are having winter. Just not the warmest parts, lol. It'll get here. 156 days since the last 90 temp, and I'm just fine waiting for some cooler air, 'cause what I have had beats the heck out of 90. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 For me it's lets wait and see what happens. I done't think the models no what is going to happen out past 48 hours. We have seen that and i don;t think they no whats going to happen two weeks from now. It is frustrating but it still is only Feb 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 AO is forecasted to dramatically increase to positive.... http://www.cpc.ncep...._index/ao.shtml PNA forecasted to go negative, all models agree on this. http://www.cpc.ncep....k/pna/pna.shtml At first I thought, "wha?", but then I figured you were referring to the - PNA having unanimous support, and was good again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 out to 36: Lets see if there is a rabit in the hat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The NAM at 84 is about the best look we've seen from a model... Let's hope we can build on that with the 0z gfs by some miracle.... Some think this storm chance for the weekend died. Well to quote a little Springsteen, "everything dies baby that's a fact, but maybe everything that dies, someday comes back" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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