Jon Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Looking at the free maps, with high humidity at 850 and 700, I've got to believe some snow falls in Tennessee and Kentucky, albeit light. Is that wrong? Do you check the snowfall on wundermap for the euro? It's free too. http://wxug.us/jusm Just change MSL to snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Yeah - It does show light amounts for all of tennesse... arkansas gets slammed. Not quite as good as last nights run. Was just confused that Bing said there was nothing. The wunderground maps are delayed coming out. It eventually loaded about 10 minutes later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Several chances of snow added to the forecast this week for western North Carolina out of NWS Blacksburg. I bet they up the chances for Friday/Saturday too. If timing is just right, something could sneak out east of the mountains into the foothills. Wednesday Mostly cloudy in the morning...then becoming partly sunny. A chance of snow showers in the morning. A chance of rain showers. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 40s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Wednesday Night A chance of rain showers in the evening. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. Thursday Mostly sunny. A chance of flurries in the morning. Highs around 40. West winds around 10 mph. Friday Night Mostly cloudy. A chance of sprinkles and flurries in the evening. Lows in the mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 This upstream wave moving into the Pacific Northwest is screwing us. It is causing the more northerly track of the downstream wave tracking into Kansas. If instead we had ridging along the west coast, the downstream wave would track more toward the ARKLATEX and would hold its amplitude better...and the overall setup would be much better - better stream separation, more precip, and as cold or colder across the upper south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Maybe I'm looking at it wrong, but wouldn't this be a rain to light snow to rain event for most? This is exactly why we need blocking or a really amped up system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Maybe I'm looking at it wrong, but wouldn't this be a rain to light snow to rain event for most? This is exactly why we need blocking or a really amped up system. There is blocking... It may not be exactly where you want it but it's there. I don't know about precip type but it doesn't look like a snowstorm for TN south verbatim on that image. Perhaps the fringes would start as light snow and transition to rain. But hey it's jmo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 the pattern has already changed..... um no it hasnt. it may appear that way on paper (or the computer screen lol), but the wx here is the same as it has been. maybe a few degrees cooler. still no arctic outbreak, no prolonge cold weather, etc. the mid jan, then end jan, early feb, etc dates for the cold never materialized. the models are still out in lala land in the long range. same old same old that has been the case this winter i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I assume that the Euro is taking into account any evaporational cooling that would occur. I've got to imagine the air will be dry following the cold this weekend. So rain to burst of snow to rain would make sense for southern fringes. And yes, we've got an east based block... if that trends west at all, its a whole new ballgame. Honestly, the last couple runs of the euro have had that southern slider look, where a moderating cold is locked in, and a low pressure tracks due east, throwing moisture up into the cold, a la (a weaker) January 88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 um no it hasnt. it may appear that way on paper (or the computer screen lol), but the wx here is the same as it has been. maybe a few degrees cooler. still no arctic outbreak, no prolonge cold weather, etc. the mid jan, then end jan, early feb, etc dates for the cold never materialized. the models are still out in lala land in the long range. same old same old that has been the case this winter i The pattern can change and your weather can stay the same. You can have, for instance, a trough over alaska, and a trough over greenland, and you can be warm. And a switch to a ridge over alaska, and a neutral NAO and you still be warm. That doesn't mean that the pattern hasn't changed. It means your backyard hasn't. the further se you are, the more prominent the blocking features have to be for you to see a real change in temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I assume that the Euro is taking into account any evaporational cooling that would occur. I've got to imagine the air will be dry following the cold this weekend. So rain to burst of snow to rain would make sense for southern fringes. And yes, we've got an east based block... if that trends west at all, its a whole new ballgame. Honestly, the last couple runs of the euro have had that southern slider look, where a moderating cold is locked in, and a low pressure tracks due east, throwing moisture up into the cold, a la (a weaker) January 88. The cold air across the upper south holds its own with this run of the Euro....bigger issue is the weakening wave....looks better the farther west you go (toward Arkansas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The pattern can change and your weather can stay the same. You can have, for instance, a trough over alaska, and a trough over greenland, and you can be warm. And a switch to a ridge over alaska, and a neutral NAO and you still be warm. That doesn't mean that the pattern hasn't changed. It means your backyard hasn't. the further se you are, the more prominent the blocking features have to be for you to see a real change in temperatures. to each his own - i dont consider this a pattern change - no arctic outbreaks (not just here but the mid atl either), no monster storms, the pattern change everyone was talking about for the last 6 weeks has not materialized. very few upslope flow events in western NC. again while the pattern on paper (ie., the general set up) may have shifted some it has not changed to what the models were showing, people were expecting, and to give the SE multiple chances of frozen precip. people are grasping at straws this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 UKMet looks similar to the Euro at 144 with waves in the S Plains and W Coast....and cold vortex in SE Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 to each his own - i dont consider this a pattern change - no arctic outbreaks (not just here but the mid atl either), no monster storms, the pattern change everyone was talking about for the last 6 weeks has not materialized. very few upslope flow events in western NC. again while the pattern on paper (ie., the general set up) may have shifted some it has not changed to what the models were showing, people were expecting, and to give the SE multiple chances of frozen precip. people are grasping at straws this year. It's funny how things cycle back around, especially this crappy winter. This is virtually the exact same discussion we had in the very first Pattern thread of the season. Technically, the pattern has changed. But sensibly for us, it's still creating the same lack of winter. So, I can see both points of view. Basically, we've gone from Suck v1.0 to Suck v2.0, with no real, meaningful enhancements on the near-term road-map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 to each his own - i dont consider this a pattern change - no arctic outbreaks (not just here but the mid atl either), no monster storms, the pattern change everyone was talking about for the last 6 weeks has not materialized. very few upslope flow events in western NC. again while the pattern on paper (ie., the general set up) may have shifted some it has not changed to what the models were showing, people were expecting, and to give the SE multiple chances of frozen precip. people are grasping at straws this year. The pattern changed, just not to one favorable for the lower 48. Europe went from mild to the deep freeze instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The pattern can change and your weather can stay the same. You can have, for instance, a trough over alaska, and a trough over greenland, and you can be warm. And a switch to a ridge over alaska, and a neutral NAO and you still be warm. That doesn't mean that the pattern hasn't changed. It means your backyard hasn't. the further se you are, the more prominent the blocking features have to be for you to see a real change in temperatures. While that may be true, the weather hasn't changed throughout most of the U.S., not just the southeast. I don't know if I remember a length of time like this during the winter without a decent trackable storm east of the Rockies (winter storm that is, we've had several severe weather days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 UKMet looks similar to the Euro at 144 with waves in the S Plains and W Coast....and cold vortex in SE Canada I'll take my chances with waves rolling in off the pacific, a nice looking -NAO developing with the confluence. If the PV is in a little different spot, might yield a couple of smaller systems roaming the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 It's funny how things cycle back around, especially this crappy winter. This is virtually the exact same discussion we had in the very first Pattern thread of the season. Technically, the pattern has changed. But sensibly for us, it's still creating the same lack of winter. So, I can see both points of view. Basically, we've gone from Suck v1.0 to Suck v2.0, with no real, meaningful enhancements on the near-term road-map. yes and you said in a few words what i was trying to say in a bunch lol. maybe the pattern has changed, but not the sensible wx. the pattern change we were all talking about, looking and hoping for has not happened. ie., nice blocking, arctic outbreaks and prolonged (more than 2 days) of cold, and enough to get some wintry precip. if the pattern change leads to the same non-winter wx its not what was wanted and is not what the models were showing. so technically maybe it has. but for all intents and purposes its the same old same old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 While that may be true, the weather hasn't changed throughout most of the U.S., not just the southeast. I don't know if I remember a length of time like this during the winter without a decent trackable storm east of the Rockies (winter storm that is, we've had several severe weather days). While I would agree that the pattern has changed, I really think it is just slight nuances in the overall flow. I think most would agree that outside of parts of Europe, there isn't much difference. Having said that, I can say that i don't ever remember a winter with such a void nationwide of winter weather. The times I remember there being such a void for part of the winter was balanced out to some degree before the winter was over. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 While I would agree that the pattern has changed, I really think it is just slight nuances in the overall flow. I think most would agree that outside of parts of Europe, there isn't much difference. Having said that, I can say that i don't ever remember a winter with such a void nationwide of winter weather. The times I remember there being such a void for part of the winter was balanced out to some degree before the winter was over. TW This definitely seems to be by far the most boring winter ever, not just here but nationwide. Even in the worst, most boring winters there seem to be at least brief periods of interesting weather to follow, but not this winter. This winter makes the winters of 98-99, 05-06, and 06-07 seem like great winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 NAM has what looks to be decent moisture return on saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The pattern did definitely change. Through January, we had a persistent vortex over Alaska....record snow and cold up that way. As we have transitioned to February, we have had a nice ridge up the west coast into Alaska/ NW Canada. I would say 8 or 9 times out 10, this results in some good cold shots into the eastern US. However, it just hasn't worked out this time for the Southeast for a couple of reasons....one being the Atlantic completely not cooperating combined with the raging Pacific flow underneath the ridge. Europe and Asia have had lots of brutal cold and some record or unusual snows. The cold has just been on the other side of the globe this time around, whereas we had it on our side of the globe for a lot of the past couple of winters. The atmosphere is cyclical.....the -AO did its job of delivering the arctic air, just to the other side of the globe. So, yes, the weather in the Southeast hasn't changed a great deal per se, but the overall hemispheric weather pattern is very different than January. With all of the said, as a person that loves cold and snow, its been pretty brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The pattern did definitely change. Through January, we had a persistent vortex over Alaska....record snow and cold up that way. As we have transitioned to February, we have had a nice ridge up the west coast into Alaska/ NW Canada. I would say 8 or 9 times out 10, this results in some good cold shots into the eastern US. However, it just hasn't worked out this time for the Southeast for a couple of reasons....one being the Atlantic completely not cooperating combined with the raging Pacific flow underneath the ridge. Europe and Asia have had lots of brutal cold and some record or unusual snows. The cold has just been on the other side of the globe this time around, whereas we had it on our side of the globe for a lot of the past couple of winters. The atmosphere is cyclical.....the -AO did its job of delivering the arctic air, just to the other side of the globe. So, yes, the weather in the Southeast hasn't changed a great deal per se, but the overall hemispheric weather pattern is very different than January. With all of the said, as a person that loves cold and snow, its been pretty brutal. So the last couple of winters, all the cold air was on this side of the globe and Europe was going through what we're going through this winter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I am using generalities here, but it is difficult for the entire hemisphere to be cold. So, most of the time when the US is having sustained cold, the same is not the case for others portions of the world. Exactly who is cold and warm all depends on the exact wavelength and amplitude of the longwave pattern at any given time though. So the last couple of winters, all the cold air was on this side of the globe and Europe was going through what we're going through this winter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I'm reading other places where snow possiblities in the NC mtns saturday but GSP not showing this. any reason why not. or are they just being cautious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Euro slams Arkansas in 7 days with half a foot of snow. Hell, I can drive there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The pattern did definitely change. Through January, we had a persistent vortex over Alaska....record snow and cold up that way. As we have transitioned to February, we have had a nice ridge up the west coast into Alaska/ NW Canada. I would say 8 or 9 times out 10, this results in some good cold shots into the eastern US. However, it just hasn't worked out this time for the Southeast for a couple of reasons....one being the Atlantic completely not cooperating combined with the raging Pacific flow underneath the ridge. I believe I saw on a recent AFD/HPC disco that there was something along the lines of a 92 percent correlation between the current pattern and cold air being delivered into the lower 48. This just happened to be the time the 8 percent verified and the cold didn't arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 GFS is becoming the outlier in a big way. Canadian, NAM, Euro, UKMET all push the cut off very far south, but drop in another piece of energy that initiates enough lift for some precipitation,and also brings in more cold. GFS drops that same piece of energy into the ull, resulting in a more progressive northern stream, and no precip.... and also, way too quick of a warm up next monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I'm reading other places where snow possiblities in the NC mtns saturday but GSP not showing this. any reason why not. or are they just being cautious? They're giving a small chance of snow on Mt. Leconte and elevations above 6000' in the Smoky Mountains. I thought about hiking to Clingman's (the road is closed for the winter) this weekend but due to the weather I may wait since it will be rather raw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 more meh huh? havent paid much attention today. forks are still out and its apparent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 more meh huh? havent paid much attention today. forks are still out and its apparent Yeah, winter is over, hard to believe we won't even sniff a flake, definitely taking this one on the chin, I think it will only be the 2nd time in 100+ years without atleast a trace a snow. Also unfortunately after a season of less than 1" in RDU we usually back it up with another stinker, I think it's like 5 out of the past six times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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