bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 @144, gulf low and energy rotating around PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Meh. 850s warming & PV retrograding back north. HP sliding off east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The GFS right now is like watching a soap opera...will the cold air stick around or retreat up north @159 it's close but it looks like the cold air might split at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 @144, gulf low and energy rotating around PV. Not seeing it, polar vortex is located near the mouth of the Hudson Straight, energy within it looks pretty much consolidated with nothing appreciable of consequence to our sensible weather. Weak 1012mb slp near Galveston TX, not exactly what I would classify as a Gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Ridge out west gone @ 162. No blocking. Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 @171 as we all knew it would, the cold air is going bye bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Such good track for the GFS @186...if only the cold air was in place. Watching the models this winter really makes you want to down some jack in a dark room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Ridge out west gone @ 162. No blocking. Terrible. Actually looks like blocking just east of Greenland is developing. Sometimes I wonder if we are all looking at the same maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 PV getting kicked out too fast on this run...we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 There's some blocking developing. But then again, the GFS showed double blocking in the long range back in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The LR doesn't look good on the GFS. Keeps all the cold air up north after 264. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Actually looks like blocking just east of Greenland is developing. Sometimes I wonder if we are all looking at the same maps. I wonder the same thing. People will be cliff diving, and exaggerating how terrible it is. Greenland ridge is trying to build, and seems to be getting stronger with each run of the GFS. If that thing builds quickly, it will retrograde the PV. And the chances of a piece of the PV breaking off and coming into the US are, you know, much greater when the PV is inclose proximity, vs where it was in January. Maybe if you live in south GA or SC its bad but I can work with what I'm seeing. Especially considering the Euro is coming muchquicker with the second wave off the pacific and showing a southern slider. If that's still around on the 12z run, I'll start getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Discard GFS, hug Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The flip floppy canadian is, um, baller. Large moisture transport northward, looks like a couple inches for tennessee if BL temps cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Discard GFS, hug Canadian. That's yesterday's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That's yesterday's run. Bing's might be. But mine isn't. Looks like half a centimeter of qpf for the northern half of tennessee. I'm worried about BL temps as the front comes in (and I can't read the actual weather canada maps worth a crap) But it looks good there. Waiting on ewall to update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Bing's might be. But mine isn't. Looks like half a centimeter of qpf for the northern half of tennessee. I'm worried about BL temps as the front comes in (and I can't read the actual weather canada maps worth a crap) But it looks good there. Waiting on ewall to update. Bing's is yesterday's and that's why I quoted his post. The map you posted is correct as far as I can tell. edit : looks like he updated it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 996 low off east coast @ 108 on CMC good ways out though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 jk... Keep an eye on the Greenland Block and its potential development. There is still time to pull something out before the end of meteorological winter. I am hoping my prediction of RDU being blanked on snowfall will end up wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 HM made a good statement a week or two ago: "Just a word of warning...for all of you who don't remember...last year at this time when the AAM state was changing etc. it lead to a significant model forecast degradation during that period (late Jan-early Feb). I suspect this is likely again, so expect, at the very least, wild shifts in timing in the day 2-5 period. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Allan Huffman (RaleighWx) posted in his blog today that this weekend through the middle of next week might be our only shot of seeing any winter weather. I know the models can change a day or two before we actually get snow, but it doesn't look good now, and it looks like it warms up through the end of February into March. http://www.examiner....eekend-diminish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Well the Euro was close to doing something in the gulf and has a weak low trekking just north of Orlando @96 but it never really turns the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 If anything does happen, the models probably won't show it until 24 to 48 hours in advance anyway. That seems to be the only time they can get snow right around here, and even that's pushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 If anything does happen, the models probably won't show it until 24 to 48 hours in advance anyway. That seems to be the only time they can get snow right around here, and even that's pushing it. That's wrong. Models have predicted snow (and haveng gotten it "right") in the triangle from far out several times. To give a recent example, lets take the Christmas snow of last year. This was the 12z run on Dec 20th for the christmas storm: Then on Dec. 22nd is when the Euro went bullish and popped a 984mb low of hatteras. Then the 12z GFS inside 48 hours showed almost the exact solution the model did 120 hours out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Good look @ 144HR for CAD if a s/w wouldn't get sheared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 12z Euro says "Nothing to see here for 7 days. Move along." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Euro is certainly chilly, but the short wave in a week shears out with no precip, then the high retreats by the time the next system enters the picture. Still betting against any really significant winter event the next two weeks, especially in GA, but with this next high coming down the chance is not zero something unexpected happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 12z Euro says "Nothing to see here for 7 days. Move along." Looking at the free maps, with high humidity at 850 and 700, I've got to believe some snow falls in Tennessee and Kentucky, albeit light. Is that wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Euro is certainly chilly, but the short wave in a week shears out with no precip, then the high retreats by the time the next system enters the picture. Still betting against any really significant winter event the next two weeks, especially in GA, but with this next high coming down the chance is not zero something unexpected happens. i agree - this is what i have been thinking for a couple of weeks now once the dates of the 'cold' arrived with no cold air. i still see nothing to indicate a pattern shift or change to colder in time this year. our best 'hope' (and thats all it is) is a surprise blip - some moisture with marginally cold air. i have not even been watching the models past a couple of days. this winter is stuck in a rut and looks to continue through most of the se's prime snow time. several times i have hit reply to a post in the thread, only to end up stopping my reply as it is pointless at this point to discuss the mid term or long range. too many variabilities and too unreliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 For KY, eastern TN and the mountains of NC there could be a light snow event early this weekend according to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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