DixieBlizzard Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Didn't we just have a big to do about posts just like this? Don't say you weren't warned. Post removed from view. Maybe you should do the same and PM me next time. I think I have been around long enough to deserve that consideration ...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Not throwing in the towel yet. This is par for the course on the GFS, probably the Euro shows a Miller A tonight just the way it goes. Interested to hear how the CMC looks though. Shoot, it's only just starting to start unblurring, lol. Look, even a piece of energy coming by Tenn. midweek, with the cold around. Watching the maps start to interact with some cold air in the country, is entertaining. Goofy sees rain this winter, but never gets the placement, or qpf in clear view until a few days out, but then it's pretty good. Who knows how it will do with some cold air, if we get it. All looks on track for a week out..possibilities, possibilities...just have to let them play out. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The Euro is pushing the Closed low south to the tip of the Baja at 96 with cold pressing down from Canada into the US. 850's already near 0 in Atlanta at that time. This isn't gonna end well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 CMC is suppression city. The models seem to be coalescing around burying the energy at the tip of the baja and then shearing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 0Z Doc LR....meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Wundermap showing some light snow for the Huntsville Area at 162. Looks way too marginal but w/e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 This run looks much more interesting in terms of some energy coming out of TX. does not look like a big storm but puts people on some snow chances. The Mountains for sure on this run looks good and into east TN.Around hour 114 is very things look interesting down east with snow developing down that way and by hour 126 looks like things pull out but looks like the GFS may be soming back on board with some sort of snow in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Sure looks like the forecast over the next week comes down to a series of disturbances that will approach the region. At times, one of these disturbances may be consolidated and amplified enough to generate precip. See the 12z Canadian yesterday for an extreme example. Disturbance was amplified enough to generate a Gulf low that produced generous amounts of precip across the region. You can also see an example on the 0z GFS today with the system Monday night. This will be one of those deals where it will be very tough to tell more than a day or two in advance whether or not one of these disturbances will be intense enough to generate precip. I am not terribly excited about the prospects of any overly significant precip from these types of systems. But it is possible if one can intensify enough, soon enough, to get the Gulf involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 All of these images are from here: http://www.daculaweather.com/gfs_06z_2m_temp_large_animated.php Instead of letting it run on it's own, I like clicking through the images, I can see the flow better. According to the 06z GFS beginning at hour 102 we're possibly seeing a little light snow in the southeast. This is when the cold or what cold there is, arrives. At 165 you start to see a CAD event with moisture approaching. Even through hour 174 Hour 312 is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Nice maps steve. I do think the upcoming period is looking very interesting. Whether we get snow,ice or rain is to be seen but i think that this will be a very active stretch in our weather and things could get interesting if we get one of these lows to phase at the right time with some cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Sure looks like the forecast over the next week comes down to a series of disturbances that will approach the region. At times, one of these disturbances may be consolidated and amplified enough to generate precip. See the 12z Canadian yesterday for an extreme example. Disturbance was amplified enough to generate a Gulf low that produced generous amounts of precip across the region. You can also see an example on the 0z GFS today with the system Monday night. This will be one of those deals where it will be very tough to tell more than a day or two in advance whether or not one of these disturbances will be intense enough to generate precip. I am not terribly excited about the prospects of any overly significant precip from these types of systems. But it is possible if one can intensify enough, soon enough, to get the Gulf involved. Thanks for the update Matt. Looking at the models for last night it certainly doesn't look good for a gulf low, but like anything this winter it won't come easy. Seems everything has been a "wait and see". Hopefully our luck can turn around for at least just one shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I don't know if its just that no one believes anything positive is going to happen or not... but the last couple runs have been building some ridging into greenland days 6-10 If that causes the PV to retrograde enough, we'll have a southern slider early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 6z for this saturday was the closest to snow yet for western north Carolina. The snow level just barely stays west of Hickory. Something to watch, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Anyone else think the 12z NAM showed a little potential at the end of the run? Would it benefit us for the two pieces of energy I have circled phased? Would that be able to pull enough cold air down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Big push of artic air invading country @ 84HR NAM with strung out moisture in the gulf. Looks like a piece of the pv energy breaks off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Anyone else think the 12z NAM showed a little potential at the end of the run? Would it benefit us for the two pieces of energy I have circled phased? Would that be able to pull enough cold air down? The NAM is historically pretty bad at the tail end of the run, but for the sake of argument, I like what I'm seeing there. It almost appears to want to break off a piece of the pv in the next two frames that woudl get stuck in the midwest. That, arguably, would be good for some sustained cold. It would take a bit for that to go away. But its the NAM at 84 - its a short term model, and not a really good one at that. I generally distrust it outside of 36-48 hour window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Goofy continues removing my moisture out to 180 hrs. I'm tired of seeing this..... TOTAL PRECIP: 0.04 ", and the sad thing is I probably won't get those advertised sprinkles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Anyone else think the 12z NAM showed a little potential at the end of the run? Would it benefit us for the two pieces of energy I have circled phased? Would that be able to pull enough cold air down? I still think we have potential here and the NAM is an example of it. The frames really look very similar to 24 hours ago except everything is 24 hours slower. That could mean the difference. I still think timing is key but I don't think it works out in the end but it's going to take a day or two more to get a yea or nay on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Anyone else think the 12z NAM showed a little potential at the end of the run? Would it benefit us for the two pieces of energy I have circled phased? Would that be able to pull enough cold air down? I don't think so, H5 looked kind of status quo, comparable to the GFS over its previous runs. This is the 84hr graphic from NCEP A little faster than the GFS ejecting the Baja energy east, picking up on a weak vort over W TX, and more tugging of the isohypthes through the southern Plains into TX/MX. It really does cut off a piece of energy from the PV though, more so than the global, bringing whatever would have a chance to partially interact with the southern wave into MT, compared to the GFS bringing into ND. A robust phase is pretty much out of the question at this point, however, we could still get a little more interaction between the streams which would likely pull whatever precip/low develops in the gulf north some. 6z GFS @ 90hr for comp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Game over by 168...hope we enjoy this 2-3 day cold snap this weekend/early next week. What is there to enjoy if it doesn't snow? if it's not going to snow, I'd rather it just stay warm and dry so I can enjoy being outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Sure looks like the forecast over the next week comes down to a series of disturbances that will approach the region. At times, one of these disturbances may be consolidated and amplified enough to generate precip. See the 12z Canadian yesterday for an extreme example. Disturbance was amplified enough to generate a Gulf low that produced generous amounts of precip across the region. You can also see an example on the 0z GFS today with the system Monday night. This will be one of those deals where it will be very tough to tell more than a day or two in advance whether or not one of these disturbances will be intense enough to generate precip. I am not terribly excited about the prospects of any overly significant precip from these types of systems. But it is possible if one can intensify enough, soon enough, to get the Gulf involved. The good thing is it seems we usually end up getting a good snow when it really isn't clear until a day or two out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I don't think so, H5 looked kind of status quo, comparable to the GFS over its previous runs. This is the 84hr graphic from NCEP A little faster than the GFS ejecting the Baja energy east, picking up on a weak vort over W TX, and more tugging of the isohypthes through the southern Plains into TX/MX. It really does cut off a piece of energy from the PV though, more so than the global, bringing whatever would have a chance to partially interact with the southern wave into MT, compared to the GFS bringing into ND. A robust phase is pretty much out of the question at this point, however, we could still get a little more interaction between the streams which would likely pull whatever precip/low develops in the gulf north some. 6z GFS @ 90hr for comp Guess the energy looked stronger on the SV and Instant maps. I guess I'm still confused on the best cases for a phase in general...do we need to really robust pieces of energy in order for it to make a difference? I'm guessing the answer to that question is yes in order to pull down cold air? Thanks for the reply and lerning me some things! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Guess the energy looked stronger on the SV and Instant maps. I guess I'm still confused on the best cases for a phase in general...do we need to really robust pieces of energy in order for it to make a difference? I'm guessing the answer to that question is yes in order to pull down cold air? Thanks for the reply and lerning me some things! What I saw that looked better on the NAM is that the PV appears to be weakening, and a portion of it is getting held back in the midwest. The vortmax coming down the back side of it then is at a better angle to dig when it rotates through - not to mention - the wave coming off the pacific. If enough of the pv can get left behind and those two vorts converge underneath it, there will be more precip in the midsouth (assuming they don't get sheered out. From my understanding, a lot of the phasing has to do with the angle of the trough, the shape/tightness of the pv. If its a strong pv, very circular and tight, getting a phase of the southern stream and one of the vorts rotating around the pv is near impossible. You get a northern stream dominated system. The reason things looked good on saturday, was a piece of energy was cutting through the top of the ridge and connecting with the pv, elongated the trough enough that it could pick up southern stream energy. Without the trough becoming more elongated (staying more circular and tight) it just suppresses the southern stream into oblivion. (just an amatuer here, so if any of this is incorrect, someone clarify please) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 If GFS doesn't allow northern stream to dominate, could be something +96HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Well the 12z looks a lot like 00z with out low...it sheers it out. What might be of interest though is what's happening out west. This run is colder out to 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 GFS sheared that first s/w. Next one rolling through Arizona @ 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Not much going on with the GFS through 108, colder run compared to 0z, -10C 850's splitting NC along I40, stalled frontal boundary draped across south FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 PV to the NE rapidly deepening. 958mb @ 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 There's also weak ridging in Greenland that kinda blocks the PV in. If we can build back the PNA here, maybe the pv can lock in in this location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Dry Arctic frontal passage, cold wins out, hgts beginning to build in the Plains ahead of the next system, stout shot of cold, but transient in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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