packbacker Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 00z NAM looked pretty far south with that energy but who knows where it goes from there. Yeah, it sure is, hard to imagine this phasing, it's so far apart and we are within 4 days of needing the actual phase to start occuring. We can enjoy our cool dry weekend because the warm up is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Yeah, it sure is, hard to imagine this phasing, it's so far apart and we are within 4 days of needing the actual phase to start occuring. We can enjoy our cool dry weekend because the warm up is coming. The s/w in question isnt going to be properly sampled until wed night.... So 12z thurs we should have a good idea, but it's going to be hard to sniff out a phase right now with so much energy being moved around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I'm just curious why you think there is no way the ULL stays put? There have been ULL's earlier in the year that parked in Tx. until a kicker came along and pushed it east. You probably know more about it than I do so I really am curious. Sorry - just getting back on here. My main reasoning has been pointed out to some degree by others...The Euro is without much company on this one (GSP also mentioned this). It is being stubborn, I agree, but thinking back through the last three to five months of a hyper-active flow, such a stationary ULL seems very odd to me (leaving the whole bias thing out of it). Does any other model/ensemble leave it there? I haven't seen one, but I admit I do not look at all of them. Again, this is just my opinion. Don't know what was ingested but that is a pretty big shift in the ensemble members between the 12 & 18z runs, very noticeable when comparing between 120 and 144 hrs. General consensus and reasonable agreement with the 18z members for a storm, still suppressed but not by much. Would really like to see the Euro bite though, hard to go against it given run to run continuity in the 5 day. This is supposed to be its power range after all. The key to me is that it has been within the 5 days it has done well. Beyond that, as strange as I feel saying it, the GFS has seemed to be the better solution when dealing with the longer range in most cases (at least since November). I hate to mention a bias since I sound like I'm whining, but the Euro does have a pretty big bias to hold energy back. And in a situation where timing is everything it really hurts the forecast. Well, there is that little chestnut, although I don't know how academic it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Unfortunately that bias has also been the trend this year I'm curious - where has there been a trend of energy being held back? I've had wave after wave of energy since November, and in most cases, I was introduced to them by the GFS (that still feels awkward to say ). And just to clarify (all Euro suspicion aside), my odds on favorite of an outcome for this impending system is cool and dry. But the fact that it is upper level driven and there are multiple pieces of energy to organize is worth keeping an eye on. Where there's smoke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Looks like the endless above normal temperatures will continue for the next few months at least...... WSI (Weather Services International) expects the upcoming period (February-April) to average colder than normal across most of the northern and western US, with above-normal temperatures confined to the south-central and southeastern states. The WSI seasonal outlooks now reference a standard 30-year normal (1981-2010). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 0z GFS has polar vortex squashing everything through 90 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Well at 108 there could be flurries from GSO to RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I think the issue with this run is our energy doesn't phase in time out west. Meanwhile there is a little parcel of energy that drops down quickly through the midwest into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 :weenie: :weenie: :weenie: Didn't we just have a big to do about posts just like this? Don't say you weren't warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 This run of the GFS says, "goodbye Miller A we hardly knew ye". The ensembles should be interesting, gotta wonder if one of them tries to phase that energy diving down to come up with something big? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Does the low still show in the gulf at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 GFS looks very euro'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Does the low still show in the gulf at all? It's there. Just too far south, then sheers out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The wave rolling into the southwest at 132 is the setup to watch in the next few days - that one will have more cold air to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The wave rolling into the southwest at 132 is the setup to watch in the next few days - that one will have more cold air to work with Looks potent @144 but how far south does it go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 0z gfs is showing another strong wave coming out of the 4 corners region entering Texas at 147. Let's see where it goes and if the cold can hang on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 yes the 2nd wave appears to be our next rain maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 0z gfs is showing another strong wave coming out of the 4 corners region entering Texas at 147. Let's see where it goes and if the cold can hang on. @168 it's an OV special with rain for everyone south of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Not going to be cold enough it looks like. The system doesn't go further south and the cold retreats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Lack of a -NAO is painful @ 162 on the GFS. Anything less than an amped up system and system runs north of GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 Game over by 168...hope we enjoy this 2-3 day cold snap this weekend/early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Well @180 verbatim it's close for some border towns (VA) in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Per 0Z Goofy, looks like some ZR quite possible western Carolinas and maybe even NE GA 2/14...keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 @168 it's an OV special with rain for everyone south of VA. Not going to be cold enough it looks like. The system doesn't go further south and the cold retreats. Yep but the interesting thing is the 12z euro had this same wave and pushed it down to Miami. The 12z euro was also a lot colder w/ a 1036 high I believe and the 0z gfs only has a 1024 high. It's alteast worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Per 0Z Goofy, looks like some ZR quite possible western Carolina's and maybe even NE GA 2/14...keep hope alive. Not throwing in the towel yet. This is par for the course on the GFS, probably the Euro shows a Miller A tonight just the way it goes. Interested to hear how the CMC looks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 I'm sick and dang tired of constantly seeing good CAD setup's at Day 7-8...I want them Day 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Per 0Z Goofy, looks like some ZR quite possible western Carolina's and maybe even NE GA 2/14...keep hope alive. Agree...that's likely ice in portions of central / western NC at 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Not throwing in the towel yet. This is par for the course on the GFS, probably the Euro shows a Miller A tonight just the way it goes. Interested to hear how the CMC looks though. Cmc not as good as 12z... Warm... Weak slp tracks across orl... Sheared look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 UKMet has a similar look at 120-144 with a broad wave in the southwest states and a decent cold look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 00z ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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