bingcrosbyb Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 @120, 1038HP moving on in to Arkansas, but SLP near Miami! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 18z is a swing and a miss....but maybe suppression is what we want to see right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 18z does suppress the low across Florida, but how many times have we seen this trend back north and west..... I know we haven't this year but this is the first real storm that looks like it may at least get close. Definitely something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 18z is a swing and a miss....but maybe suppression is what we want to see right now. I have to agree with that. If it's anything like the threat we had last winter IIRC, it's always good to see this right now instead of being in the jackpot so soon but of course, it doesn't always mean that this system will head further north overtime on the modeling. Thankfully there is still room left for improvement but as each day goes by, that chance decreases so we need to see this pull more north definitely by Wednesday IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I don't get this South America talk, the energy is still near the Baja..... The GFS is still really early on in the run. Yep - and I'll go ahead and say with confidence that there is no way that ULL stays parked there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 18z is a swing and a miss....but maybe suppression is what we want to see right now. Lol, we've watched for a week or more, you and I, while the storm was pushed south by phantoms Now there is actually some cold air in play it begins to make sense, for a change. In the end, if will probably take looking outside to see it is is cold and cloudy, but Goofy wants to give us something, and has for a while. I'm happy with how things have evolved. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 GSP is leaning more towards a euro solution for the long term this afternoon. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 125 PM EST MONDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST ON FRIDAY IN GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA REGION WITH A BROAD L/W TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ON FRIDAY. I WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT A AMPLIFYING S/W WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN REASONABLE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. ADEQUATE FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS WILL SUPPORT SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING...THEN MIXING TO RAIN AFTER SUNRISE. THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE WITHIN SEASONABLE VALUES. ON SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN MEXICO STILL REMAINS ON THE ECMWF AND WAS ABSORBED BY THE GFS L/W LATE FRIDAY. THIS DIFFERENCE KEEPS THE GFS TOO DEEP WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT TROF OVER THE PLAINS AND DESERT S/W. IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF SPLITS THE L/W TROF AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE A SAT AM S/W TROF. IT APPEARS THAT THE ECMWF WILL VERIFY THE BEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS. COOL THICKNESSES AND LIMITED SKY COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The New Euro weeklies go below this week, above next two weeks then normal for week 4 which is the first part of March....the indications are that they are not blow torchy any where except eastern seaboard next week and are fairly cool across the west and southwest...wont actually see them until I get back into work in the morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The New Euro weeklies go below this week, above next two weeks then normal for week 4 which is the first part of March....the indications are that they are not blow torchy any where except eastern seaboard next week and are fairly cool across the west and southwest...wont actually see them until I get back into work in the morning... That's interesting - a local met here (which I'll not name) just recanted their staunch (for weeks now) "warm nazi" no cold on the horizon position at break-neck speed. I would love to understand why there exists such a delta between interpretations. This is not a shot at you whatsoever...I enjoy your posts. I am genuinely intrigued by how many people look at the same information and come to very different conclusions. The met I referenced usually does not demonstrate such epic back-pedaling, and seems convinced that it will be getting colder for the foreseeable future. Now, addressing the GFS and the energy over the baja...I'll stick to my guns that the suppression won't take such a ridiculous dive south, as we have seen track after track come in way more west and north than progged. this past year. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 If there is ever a year when the mjo going through phases 7, 8, and 1 can hose us, as shown in the long range........this is it. I haven't checked the 7-8-1 set, but phases 8-1-2 have meant only a modest bias toward cold ON AVERAGE here in ATL, especially during La Nina's. If we could also maintain a -AO while in 8-1-2, the chances are better for cold. Great example: even though it was during a La Nina, the 1/12-2/3/1985 period, which was during an 8-1-2 MJO, got very cold. It had a -AO that went as low as -6. Winter stormwise at least down here in Atlanta, 8-1-2 has tended to do a good bit better in combo with an El Nino as opposed to with either neutral or La Nina. So, the MJO is as you know not even close to being the only important factor. I figure you know this, but your wording sort of suggests its impacts being more definitive vs. what has actually occurred. I'm assuming you're talking somewhat out of frustration. I look at 8-1-2 as potentially helpful largely depending on other factors like ENSO, AO, NAO, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 This upcoming weekend looks to give us more seasonable winter weather in the NC High Country with highs in the mid 20s both Saturday and Sunday. That will be great for snow making on the ski slopes to give the ski slopes an opportunity to put down some more man made snow. This will give us another opportunity for some skiing on man made snow, which is all we've essentially had to work with this year. Haven't had any real powder to carve up on the ski slopes or on the natural back woods cross country skiing trails this winter. Saturday could bring some flurries in the upslope and Sunday is likely to be a sunny cold day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That's interesting - a local met here (which I'll not name) just recanted their staunch (for weeks now) "warm nazi" no cold on the horizon position at break-neck speed. I would love to understand why there exists such a delta between interpretations. This is not a shot at you whatsoever...I enjoy your posts. I am genuinely intrigued by how many people look at the same information and come to very different conclusions. The met I referenced usually does not demonstrate such epic back-pedaling, and seems convinced that it will be getting colder for the foreseeable future. Now, addressing the GFS and the energy over the baja...I'll stick to my guns that the suppression won't take such a ridiculous dive south, as we have seen track after track come in way more west and north than progged. this past year. Just my opinion. I can see why he might want to go that way...he is flying against a four week out forecast model so it is not like he does not have a chance especially with the shorter term pattern changes around here. While the parameters and metrics are different when grading out weekly type forecasts, it is still most likely on par with Day 10 operational models at best. Having said that, it is going to be difficult to sustain cold with the lack of US snow cover as well as a continued near moderate strength La Nina. The Euro weeklies are likely keying on that. At any rate, the next 4 or 5 days should be the most interesting part of this banal winter as far as seeing where the shorter term modeling goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I can see why he might want to go that way...he is flying against a four week out forecast model so it is not like he does not have a chance especially with the shorter term pattern changes around here. While the parameters and metrics are different when grading out weekly type forecasts, it is still most likely on par with Day 10 operational models at best. Having said that, it is going to be difficult to sustain cold with the lack of US snow cover as well as a continued near moderate strength La Nina. The Euro weeklies are likely keying on that. At any rate, the next 4 or 5 days should be the most interesting part of this banal winter as far as seeing where the shorter term modeling goes. I absolutely agree with that. We need snow pack from ND through the OH Valley and it just isn't there enough to help aide a transport of cold air this far south. On a side note, does anyone remember the The Cosby Show episode with the riddle about the doctor? Everyone assumed it was a man, when in fact it was a woman. I just thought it was funny, as the met I referenced earlier is of the female persuasion. But back on topic. I'm really struggling with giving the Euro much credence right now, because there is just no way that ULL stays parked over the Mexican desert like it's on holiday. The 18z NAM seems to boot the sub-tropical ULL out ahead of the Polar Jet, and has the Arctic Jet much more west but zooming south. I'm curious to see if the GFS trends the Arctic Jet back farther west in the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 4 of the 18z GFS ensemble members have our miller A with precip being thrown all the way back into Tennessee. The Operational model is pretty much the most suppressed solution out of all the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 4 of the 18z GFS ensemble members have our miller A with precip being thrown all the way back into Tennessee. The Operational model is pretty much the most suppressed solution out of all the members. I would just love love love for this one to verify... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I absolutely agree with that. We need snow pack from ND through the OH Valley and it just isn't there enough to help aide a transport of cold air this far south. On a side note, does anyone remember the The Cosby Show episode with the riddle about the doctor? Everyone assumed it was a man, when in fact it was a woman. I just thought it was funny, as the met I referenced earlier is of the female persuasion. But back on topic. I'm really struggling with giving the Euro much credence right now, because there is just no way that ULL stays parked over the Mexican desert like it's on holiday. The 18z NAM seems to boot the sub-tropical ULL out ahead of the Polar Jet, and has the Arctic Jet much more west but zooming south. I'm curious to see if the GFS trends the Arctic Jet back farther west in the next couple of days. I'm just curious why you think there is no way the ULL stays put? There have been ULL's earlier in the year that parked in Tx. until a kicker came along and pushed it east. You probably know more about it than I do so I really am curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I would just love love love for this one to verify... why is it that we can't finally get something like this to verify. getting real sick of this winter, i keep waiting 10 days and then another 10 days and this has been going on since december. when are we going to get a break? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Don't know what was ingested but that is a pretty big shift in the ensemble members between the 12 & 18z runs, very noticeable when comparing between 120 and 144 hrs. General consensus and reasonable agreement with the 18z members for a storm, still suppressed but not by much. Would really like to see the Euro bite though, hard to go against it given run to run continuity in the 5 day. This is supposed to be its power range after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Don't know what was ingested but that is a pretty big shift in the ensemble members between the 12 & 18z runs, very noticeable when comparing between 120 and 144 hrs. General consensus and reasonable agreement with the 18z members for a storm, still suppressed but not by much. Would really like to see the Euro bite though, hard to go against it given run to run continuity in the 5 day. This is supposed to be its power range after all. I agree Weather! We see it year after year, the gfs has a storm but the euro doesn't. Then at the end the gfs starts going towards the euro. That's how Dr. No got it's name. The thing that has me puzzled w/ this storm is several of the other models have this gulf low in some form. So why doesn't the euro? That's why I was asking Bevo why he thinks there's no way the ULL stays put on Mexico. Maybe he sees something I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Out of all the members that I saw, 5 of them show some form of a hit over parts of the Southeast, though it's moreso for NC than the rest of the states. Nice to look at but as WeatherNC mentioned, it's quite a shift compared to the previous ensemble run. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zf126.html http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zsnowf138.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 18z GFS OP is about 200 miles South of a classic Southern Slider track to the give the Carolina Coast a Rare dumping. I don't mind Supression at the point. May be the only chance we get this year. Having a chance on a major model @ 120 is the best Ive seen all season for down here. Now I wish Dr. No would bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I agree Weather! We see it year after year, the gfs has a storm but the euro doesn't. Then at the end the gfs starts going towards the euro. That's how Dr. No got it's name. The thing that has me puzzled w/ this storm is several of the other models have this gulf low in some form. So why doesn't the euro? That's why I was asking Bevo why he thinks there's no way the ULL stays put on Mexico. Maybe he sees something I don't. I hate to mention a bias since I sound like I'm whining, but the Euro does have a pretty big bias to hold energy back. And in a situation where timing is everything it really hurts the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I hate to mention a bias since I sound like I'm whining, but the Euro does have a pretty big bias to hold energy back. And in a situation where timing is everything it really hurts the forecast. Unfortunately that bias has also been the trend this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I hate to mention a bias since I sound like I'm whining, but the Euro does have a pretty big bias to hold energy back. And in a situation where timing is everything it really hurts the forecast. I agree Tyler and I've seen that bias in years past but it's usually in the long range you see it. Usually w/in 5 days or so that bias doesn't come into play. Don't get me wrong the euro could be off it's rocker right now but I would feel a lot better if it would start to show something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Unfortunately that bias has also been the trend this year Well lets hope that changes then. The fact the GFS isn't entirely alone and its ensembles look good gives me a better feeling about this than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The CMC Ens looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 00z NAM looked pretty far south with that energy but who knows where it goes from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 My concern about a triple phase would be if it phases to early, near LA in sead of over N FL, the storm ould be pulled to far inland. You would see a blizzard for the west of the Appalachians and Ohio Valley, while the SE would be staring at a tornado outbreak. Doesn't sound so bad to me X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 My concern about a triple phase would be if it phases to early, near LA in sead of over N FL, the storm ould be pulled to far inland. You would see a blizzard for the west of the Appalachians and Ohio Valley, while the SE would be staring at a tornado outbreak. This would be the absolute last thing that will happen, no chance of this happening, with the big PV in eastern Canada and a strong high over the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Don't like the looks of the cold air setup east of the mtns. even if the Euro comes around to a storm. Going to take a minor miracle, which fits nicely with this whole winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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