burgertime Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 @186 that low on the Euro is hanging out with Castro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The NOGAPS has about the worst verification record out there. It's not a model you want on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Too warm for most, good run for the mountains, western TN, maybe the foothills as the low departs, but look at the 850 map, flow would be out of the south-southwest @ 132 hr with a potential 850 close off near the OH Valley. Canadian kind of stands alone atm, 12z UKMET looks similar to the GFS, weak perturbation crossing the FL peninsula before starting to deepen somewhere between NC and Bermuda, closer to Bermuda. Another thing, I would like to see at-least a couple of the GFS individual members showing a hit at this range, and over the past 3-4 runs not even 1 or 2 have. Sure a few looked interesting, but the overwhelming agreement was too little too late, amplified frontal passage with a weak wave well to the south. Even if we do get a storm, more interaction is going to be needed between the streams to trend it colder, because as it stands now, looking too warm for most outside of elevation. Its not done loading just yet, but already p001 shows a hit.... 999 SLP just off ILM... and the other 3 that I have loaded are pretty close to hits. The mean looks promising as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The NOGAPS has about the worst verification record out there. It's not a model you want on your side. DT said it's a lot better since the upgrade. But I don't know when it was upgraded and haven't seen any verification scores since the upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 if the GFS keeps up the good trend and the Euro comes around by Wednesday or Thursday, then I think we might really have a shot at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The Euro does hold in a CAD high and breaks out precip in north GA which would likely be some sort of frozen....but again, with all these model flip-flops we cannot trust anything right now- some are talking about this storm on the CMC which the Euro does not even have a hint of. We just have to realize that any forecast beyond day 3 right now is pretty close to impossible. That is why I am not really following stuff that closely right now, hanging on every model run will accomplish little except give you whiplash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Like others have said, Euro has shown something interesting before, then takes it away, only to show up again later on down the road a couple days before the event. That's what happened in the Christmas 2010 snow, and it was an event depending on phasing as well. That was kind of different, several runs were showing an Epic snowstorm in the 6-7 day range, plus there was other model agreement. I don't see any indication of a sig or even insignificant storm with p-type issues in the next 5 or 6 days, sure it could magically appear but the odds are heavily against. As I stated, you would like to see at-least a couple of individual members show something of consequence, which would be an indication of a certain amount of variability in the system. Positives, taking the 12z op Euro at its word, there is a period of about 72 hrs, between 126 and 198, where it is cold enough for SN, now we just need some moisture to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 DT said it's a lot better since the upgrade. But I don't know when it was upgraded and haven't seen any verification scores since the upgrade. Current day 6 verification scores for the 0z runs @ H5, NH... EC followed by UKMET, nothing new here. FNG is the NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Current day 6 verification scores for the 0z runs @ H5, NH... EC followed by UKMET, nothing new here. FNG is the NOGAPS Thanks man. That's good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Interesting I haven't kept track of the Ensemble members. That certainly is not good news. By the way I didn't think the CMC looked great temp wise, just posting that there in case some were interested. I always want to see those dark blues on the 850 maps to get excited by the CMC. If you're not keeping track of the ensemble members, you're missing half the forecasting battle. The ensemble mean smooths things out and can give you an idea on temps and heights. Look at the individual members to see what kind of agreement there is. If the majority of the ensembles are showing a similar evolution, that means that even with varying data, the models are all coming to a similar solution, which means its a fairly likely outcome. I was excited this weekend, because 3-4 of the members were bringing the low up through the florida and up the east coast. But those have disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 A deepening low tracking across Central Florida is Climo for a nice SC snowfall. The cold air doesn't look to be far enough South for it though. Pretty sure that's what happened in Feb. of 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Looks like the nogaps keeps the gulf low idea alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The nogaps looks almost identical to 00z, except a little further west. Very consistent if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Give this link a watch as Greg Fischel gives a great explanation of how ensembles impact the forecast. Some of you may have seen this last year. http://www.wral.com/weather/video/8935040/#/vid8935040 TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Accuhype has picked up the mention of the weekend storm...albeit a 2nd and less likely option. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/lateweek-cold-press/61254 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 If you're not keeping track of the ensemble members, you're missing half the forecasting battle. The ensemble mean smooths things out and can give you an idea on temps and heights. Look at the individual members to see what kind of agreement there is. If the majority of the ensembles are showing a similar evolution, that means that even with varying data, the models are all coming to a similar solution, which means its a fairly likely outcome. I was excited this weekend, because 3-4 of the members were bringing the low up through the florida and up the east coast. But those have disappeared. I actually counted 6 ensemble members that were closer to the coast than the OP and 2, maybe 3 that would be good hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Interesting the trends of the MJO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Interesting the trends of the MJO... Can you please interpret? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 18Z NAM is almost complete. Even though the timing looks off it's amazing to see three separate vortices that have the possibility even if very remote to phase. I wonder about the southern two though, it almost looks like they came from the same place at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Can you please interpret? TW Phase 1 and 2 are very good for cold/wet east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Can you please interpret? TW I believe Phases 2, 3 and 8 are our best for cold weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Can you please interpret? TW Currently in phase 7. Phases 7-1 would be good for the SE winter storm development based on the JFM temp & precip composites. Precip: http://www.cpc.ncep....bined_image.png Temp: http://www.cpc.ncep....bined_image.png Read more here. http://www.cpc.ncep....O/mjoupdate.pdf It's hard to grasp considering there's a lot to it...but most people think phases 7, 8 and 1 are "good" to be in for our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 If you're not keeping track of the ensemble members, you're missing half the forecasting battle. The ensemble mean smooths things out and can give you an idea on temps and heights. Look at the individual members to see what kind of agreement there is. If the majority of the ensembles are showing a similar evolution, that means that even with varying data, the models are all coming to a similar solution, which means its a fairly likely outcome. I was excited this weekend, because 3-4 of the members were bringing the low up through the florida and up the east coast. But those have disappeared. I know what the Ensembles are and why they are used...I should have clarified for this storm I haven't been keeping track of individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Looks like the 18z is sending the western cut-off to South America, again. Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Looks like the 18z is sending the western cut-off to South America, again. Yay! I don't get this South America talk, the energy is still near the Baja..... The GFS is still really early on in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 If there is ever a year when the mjo going through phases 7, 8, and 1 can hose us, as shown in the long range........this is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The two southern vorts look to be phasing. But then again I could be completely wrong. I like where this is headed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Guys, all of this is in this thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/29440-medium-range-discussion-winter-2011-12/page__pid__1345765__st__980#entry1345765 Real good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 18Z will be plenty cold enough but the storm look suppressed at 108. The two southern votices that merged look to be getting sheared out in the GoM. The northern stream looks like it's sliding more east than south with the west coast ridge changing it's look at the wrong time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 @114, pj & s/w have phased, but northern stream very dominant. Colder run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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