Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II

[tnweathernut]

It seems we have model agreement on the long range. Unfortunately. I know the models have swung wildly lately, but they don't look good after this weekend.

[burgertime]

12z Canadian FWIW. S/w & pj interact and eject east, but western ridge not sharp enough any interaction with artic jet. 1010mb LP runs from northern gulf through northern FL to SE GA. Wet system.

Thicknesses in TN support snow. Can't see panel between 120->144

From what I'm seeing at http://www.wxcaster....eign_models.htm the Canadian send that low trekking across Miami and heading due east.

I was looking at the 00z run on accident. Nothing to see here. Move along.

[bhamwx205]

From what I'm seeing at http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm the Canadian send that low trekking across Miami and heading due east.

bing is right its up near the coast

[burgertime]

bing is right its up near the coast

Interesting...I must be looking at old panels that didn't update. I see what it is, that's the 00z run from last night. Whoops.

[Bevo]

Point blank perspective per Andy Wood (met) here in the SC upstate:

"12z GFS is a prime example of how the GFS (and other models) seem to be having a lot of trouble with the upper-low in the southern stream. This isn't unexpected they would have trouble, but the 12z digs that upper low the farthest south of any run recently, yet still tries to connect the polar jet with the subtrop jet better than the 0z last night). The helper is that the west coast ridge axis on the 12z run

(

http://www.instantwe..._500mb&hour=090)

... is situated or angled slightly more vertical than what was shown last night on the 0z run

(

http://www.instantwe..._500mb&hour=102).

Also worth noting is the last two runs of the NAM have a much taller and sharper west coast ridge axis on the last few frames. This could lead to more jet interaction (possible arctic) if those trends continue. Surface precip reflection aside (which doesn't matter at this point), 12z GFS is a closer call with the energy coming together. Last night's 0z GFS run may have been a bit too northern stream dominant, thus suppressed compared with all others recently ... this is why it pays to save every single run in the memory bank for the last 4 days rather than taking run by run as verbatim. This will be a close call down to a couple days prior, but everyone remembers the madness of Christmas 2011 & how the GFS and others lost the partial phasing of the two jets until 48 hours prior when trends reverted back to the original idea."

I'm not concerned with surface temps and precip at this stage with the system being upper level driven. If there's no phase, it's irrelevant.

[valkhorn]

12z CMC puts down heavy snow from about Morristown, TN northeastward:

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Of course if this happens I'll book a hotel in Kingsport.

[Brick Tamland]

Point blank perspective per Andy Wood (met) here in the SC upstate:

"12z GFS is a prime example of how the GFS (and other models) seem to be having a lot of trouble with the upper-low in the southern stream. This isn't unexpected they would have trouble, but the 12z digs that upper low the farthest south of any run recently, yet still tries to connect the polar jet with the subtrop jet better than the 0z last night). The helper is that the west coast ridge axis on the 12z run

(

http://www.instantwe..._500mb&hour=090)

... is situated or angled slightly more vertical than what was shown last night on the 0z run

(

http://www.instantwe..._500mb&hour=102).

Also worth noting is the last two runs of the NAM have a much taller and sharper west coast ridge axis on the last few frames. This could lead to more jet interaction (possible arctic) if those trends continue. Surface precip reflection aside (which doesn't matter at this point), 12z GFS is a closer call with the energy coming together. Last night's 0z GFS run may have been a bit too northern stream dominant, thus suppressed compared with all others recently ... this is why it pays to save every single run in the memory bank for the last 4 days rather than taking run by run as verbatim. This will be a close call down to a couple days prior, but everyone remembers the madness of Christmas 2011 & how the GFS and others lost the partial phasing of the two jets until 48 hours prior when trends reverted back to the original idea."

I'm not concerned with surface temps and precip at this stage with the system being upper level driven. If there's no phase, it's irrelevant.

True. Without the phase, we get nothing. I like how he compared this to Christmas 2011. And we know how that ended up.

[jmundie]

Is no one interested in what the gfs shows at 11 days... Ensembles have been showing a big storm there consistently for the last few days. Very good support from 228-264 in ensembles for a cold ull really far south.

[msuwx]

Pretty sure he is referencing Christmas 2010, and a lot on here wound up with a good snow storm.

True. Without the phase, we get nothing. I like how he compared this to Christmas 2011. And we know how that ended up.

[msuwx]

12z Canadian is interesting even for some areas outside of the mountains in NC. 850s drop near zero for some of the time precip is falling to near I-85, and the line keeps plunging as precip departs.

Bring the salt grinder though.....

[Bevo]

Pretty sure he is referencing Christmas 2010, and a lot on here wound up with a good snow storm.

Correct - definitely 2010...and we did quite well.

[rduwx]

Is no one interested in what the gfs shows at 11 days... Ensembles have been showing a big storm there consistently for the last few days. Very good support from 228-264 in ensembles for a cold ull really far south.

I have noticed this aswell. Also the 0z euro had a nice looking ull at hr 240.

[Brick Tamland]

Pretty sure he is referencing Christmas 2010, and a lot on here wound up with a good snow storm.

Oops! Yes, it was Christmas 2010. Can I have a repeat, please?

[rduwx]

12z Canadian is interesting even for some areas outside of the mountains in NC. 850s drop near zero for some of the time precip is falling to near I-85, and the line keeps plunging as precip departs.

Bring the salt grinder though.....

The 12z Canadian is the perfect track for RDU snowstorms. If we only had more cold air in place.

[SN_Lover]

Correct - definitely 2010...and we did quite well.

Indeed. Hopefully we will get a repeat

[Cold Rain]

12z Canadian is interesting even for some areas outside of the mountains in NC. 850s drop near zero for some of the time precip is falling to near I-85, and the line keeps plunging as precip departs.

Bring the salt grinder though.....

If that southern stream wave slows it's roll a tad, this could be a very big deal...as depicted on the CMC anyway. Big 1044 high dropping into the plains on the heels of the northern stream wave. If that vort digs a bit more and the southern stream one slows down a bit, a big phase could occur here. Still may pull the storm a bit far inland for my liking, but there certainly is room for something big.

[burgertime]

CMC@120 and 132

[burgertime]

By the Euro on the surface is "meh" for our low.

[Cheeznado]

12Z Dr. No lives up to its moniker- just a dry cold front with not really much rain anywhere except a few showers in FL.

[jmundie]

Surprised none of you carolina folks have mentioned the NOGAPS. Set phasers to stun.

[WeatherNC]

CMC@120 and 132

Too warm for most, good run for the mountains, western TN, maybe the foothills as the low departs, but look at the 850 map, flow would be out of the south-southwest @ 132 hr with a potential 850 close off near the OH Valley. Canadian kind of stands alone atm, 12z UKMET looks similar to the GFS, weak perturbation crossing the FL peninsula before starting to deepen somewhere between NC and Bermuda, closer to Bermuda. Another thing, I would like to see at-least a couple of the GFS individual members showing a hit at this range, and over the past 3-4 runs not even 1 or 2 have. Sure a few looked interesting, but the overwhelming agreement was too little too late, amplified frontal passage with a weak wave well to the south. Even if we do get a storm, more interaction is going to be needed between the streams to trend it colder, because as it stands now, looking too warm for most outside of elevation.

[beanskip]

Euro pretty darned cold at Day 6 -- looks like a storm forming -- I'm sure it will arrive Day +1 after cold air retreats .....

[Cold Rain]

Surprised none of you carolina folks have mentioned the NOGAPS. Set phasers to stun.

None of YOU? You're one of US!

Nogaps is really close. I like the orientation of the high pressure. What we need here is an instant occlusion.

[burgertime]

Euro pretty darned cold at Day 6 -- looks like a storm forming -- I'm sure it will arrive Day +1 after cold air retreats .....

It's certainly looking interesting out to 168. Nice bit of cold air with a low in the gulf. We'll see where it goes it usually plays out like you just said this winter.

[Cheeznado]

The Euro does look intriguing in the latter statges- a -NAO and a 50/50 low, a wet system coming in from the west. But as I have stated a million times, this pattern is not one to hang your hat on any one run of any of the models, we need consistency from both Op runs and ensembles which is currently not even close to happening.

[burgertime]

Too warm for most, good run for the mountains, western TN, maybe the foothills as the low departs, but look at the 850 map, flow would be out of the south-southwest @ 132 hr with a potential 850 close off near the OH Valley. Canadian kind of stands alone atm, 12z UKMET looks similar to the GFS, weak perturbation crossing the FL peninsula before starting to deepen somewhere between NC and Bermuda, closer to Bermuda. Another thing, I would like to see at-least a couple of the GFS individual members showing a hit at this range, and over the past 3-4 runs not even 1 or 2 have. Sure a few looked interesting, but the overwhelming agreement was too little too late, amplified frontal passage with a weak wave well to the south. Even if we do get a storm, more interaction is going to be needed between the streams to trend it colder, because as it stands now, looking too warm for most outside of elevation.

Interesting I haven't kept track of the Ensemble members. That certainly is not good news. By the way I didn't think the CMC looked great temp wise, just posting that there in case some were interested. I always want to see those dark blues on the 850 maps to get excited by the CMC.

[jmundie]

Non of YOU? You're one of US!

Nogaps is really close. I like the orientation of the high pressure. What we need here is an instant occlusion.

I'm in Nashville. Not really southeast... but there's not a mid south forum. I like where the mid south is sitting with this. even if it completely misses the gulf, we might get some passing snow showers, bother wed morning and fri sometime.

The NOGAPs skirts my area, but I'd take it as well. Would like to put all my eggs in the CMC's basket, but its been all over the place, so not sure I buy its current solution.

[WeatherNC]

Euro pretty darned cold at Day 6 -- looks like a storm forming -- I'm sure it will arrive Day +1 after cold air retreats .....

Through 168 nothing of consequence. 1036 hp over the lakes, -12C 850's clipping NE NC, sharp cutoff with the cold, mainly NC north at day 7, hghts building in the MS river valley up through MN, precip in the central Gulf, back into OK. Canadian/NOGAPS storm is not there, weak slp well offshore the VA capes at 126hrs.

Edit: EC is certainly cold enough in NC for SN between 168 & 192, however, precip slide across C FL Interesting and something to keep an eye on, but now we are back to something 7+ days out which sucks.

[Brick Tamland]

Like others have said, Euro has shown something interesting before, then takes it away, only to show up again later on down the road a couple days before the event. That's what happened in the Christmas 2010 snow, and it was an event depending on phasing as well.

[burgertime]

The Euro does look intriguing in the latter statges- a -NAO ad a 50/50 low, a wet system coming in from the west. But as I have stated a million times, this pattern is not one to hang your hat on any one run of any of the models, we need consistency from both Op runs and ensembles which is currently not even close to happening.

Let's not forget just a few days ago it had epic cold in the LR just to flip back to seasonal at 00z. Model madness continues. Out to 180 it's a good look but suppression city. That low is around Miami.