jmundie Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 My concern about a triple phase would be if it phases to early, near LA in sead of over N FL, the storm ould be pulled to far inland. You would see a blizzard for the west of the Appalachians and Ohio Valley, while the SE would be staring at a tornado outbreak. Some of the ensembles hinted at this over the weekend. Storm blows up and goes nne from nola to nashville with snow back in arkansas and missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I undersand that the euro is generally better in the 5-7 day range, but in my opinion, this year it has actually been worse in the 7+ day range than the gfs. Remember, it was not that many days ago that it was dropping the entirety of this trough into the northern atlantic and keeping us warm. +1 The Euro is King of the Split Flow, but it has lagged the GFS in longer range this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 So it sounds like if we get the phase, we could have a huge storm. If we don't get the phase, we don't get much of anything. It's all or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Wow things are looking exciting now I love the ULL the Euro is featuring, although I think it's already been mentioned. Then again, it might not happen. Just glad to be finally tracking something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I am really impressed with that ridge that builds by 66 on the west coast on the 12z GFS. It will be a shame if it doesn't produce for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Just looking at hr 78 it appears as if the orientation isn't right to produce a low of any consequence for the southeast. It appears the southern branch is too detached and not far enough east to be captured. Let's see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Just looking at hr 78 it appears as if the orientation isn't right to produce a low of any consequence for the southeast. It appears the southern branch is too detached and not far enough east to be captured. Let's see where it goes. @96 our major player of energy is diving south towards Mexico and doesn't quite phase with the energy south of it....or out to this point it doesn't anyways. @102 it appears to start to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Ok, so after looking at the 12z NAM, I'm sure there will be some talk of a phaser possibility and I'm already seeing HM over at accuweather throw around his "Big Daddy" mumbo jumbo analysis. Let me state up front this is incredibly remote and I can only remember 4-5 times in the past 50 years of a triple occurring. That being said, the players are on the field. I've drawn a sketch from the 84HR NAM. See below: Note the NAM shows the "potential" for a phaser or even a triple phaser. Note the pj piece rotating SE as the s/w ejects east. The NAM wants to depict an extremely sharp ridge out west. There are also a few lobes of energy rotating down the artic jet as shown. But could they meet and where? My gut tells me that any possibility of a triple phaser would most likely given the lack of a -NAO occur off the east coast and not in the gulf of mexico or basically east of the appalachian mountains. . The fact that the players are on the table is incredibly exciting and rare to see in the models and will be very interesting to track over the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Wow things are looking exciting now I love the ULL the Euro is featuring, although I think it's already been mentioned. Then again, it might not happen. Just glad to be finally tracking something. that right there verbatim is record warmth for the Southeast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 @108 a GOM storm is brewing but appears pretty suppressed at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 What a complex mess the GFS is showing with all the vorticies around. My goodness, model madness should continue for a while there is just too much energy to get a handle on at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Congrats, South America. That Southwest closed low goes pretty much straight south through 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 @114 our low is heading north. This might have a good look to it if we can get the cold air down in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Congrats, South America. That Southwest closed low goes pretty much straight south through 90. @114 it's finally heading east but still in lower MX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 that right there verbatim is record warmth for the Southeast.... Ya, because the pressure at 850mb is 994. Remember a low spins counter-clockwise. So it makes sense that the lower the pressure the stronger the gradient would be, therefore more gulf air would be tapped. Once the low passes, then folks will have a shot of snow with wrap-around precip... according to this run. Also temps are relativity seasonal ahead of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Cold air moving in @120 into NC...looks like our low is gonna track across Miami or Orlando or somewhere in between. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 how many vorts can the GFS throw down into NA? theres no way it can key on these correctly at 114 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 low moving across Orlando @126...temps in NC are just "meh" not enough cold air at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Orlando is a good starting point to get to JAX.... just need a little more interaction sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 LP sliding through north FL @120. GFS doesn't know what piece of energy to key on. Disorganized blob of a system transversing the GOM and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Excellent agreement on GFS and NAM as both have the s/w and pj pieces in almost same location, but the NAM shows a stronger vortex in Canada. GFS NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The biggest thing I can see AGAINST a significant storm is we lose the ridging out west. Doing that allows the northern jet to simply sweep through instead of phasing with the southern energy. I don't see it guys. It's nice to have the pieces on the table, and maybe they can fit together better in coming days, but it just looks like a frontal passage to me with warmer temps coming behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 LP sliding through north FL @120. GFS doesn't know what piece of energy to key on. Disorganized blob of a system transversing the GOM and out to sea. Like most storms this is going to come down to a wait and see approach. Should be interesting to see what the Euro says this afternoon. Again though GFS is sticking to it's guns about a gulf low so that's at least the good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Once again, the pattern is too progressive. There is so much energy in the flow, without significant blocking in a favorable location, it's going to be extremely difficult to get a storm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 One thing I've noticed over the past few winters is the over estimation of the strength of these PV features 5-7 days out.... last year, almost everytime the PV trended weaker. This is what allowed the N-NW trends we were used to. It remains to be seen if this is what happens here, as this is the first real threat we've had to gauge it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 12z Canadian has a weak low (1010) over Savannah with a nice slug of precip over most of the SE ... but looks to be too warm (at least based on my reading of the b/w maps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 12Z LR doesnt look too hot. Shows a big storm cutting up the Tennessee Valley and not an abundance of cold air or ridging in the West later in the period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 12z Canadian FWIW. S/w & pj interact and eject east, but western ridge not sharp enough any interaction with artic jet. 1010mb LP runs from northern gulf through northern FL to SE GA. Wet system. Thicknesses in TN support snow. Can't see panel between 120->144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 12Z LR doesnt look too hot. Shows a big storm cutting up the Tennessee Valley and not an abundance of cold air or ridging in the West later in the period If it was correct out at 276 we would need a boat. Major storm at that time frame but it's all rain verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Still no sign of any blocking whatsoever in the LR. That's a downer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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