Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II


Marion_NC_WX

Recommended Posts

My concern about a triple phase would be if it phases to early, near LA in sead of over N FL, the storm ould be pulled to far inland. You would see a blizzard for the west of the Appalachians and Ohio Valley, while the SE would be staring at a tornado outbreak.

Some of the ensembles hinted at this over the weekend. Storm blows up and goes nne from nola to nashville with snow back in arkansas and missouri.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I undersand that the euro is generally better in the 5-7 day range, but in my opinion, this year it has actually been worse in the 7+ day range than the gfs. Remember, it was not that many days ago that it was dropping the entirety of this trough into the northern atlantic and keeping us warm.

+1

The Euro is King of the Split Flow, but it has lagged the GFS in longer range this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just looking at hr 78 it appears as if the orientation isn't right to produce a low of any consequence for the southeast. It appears the southern branch is too detached and not far enough east to be captured. Let's see where it goes.

@96 our major player of energy is diving south towards Mexico and doesn't quite phase with the energy south of it....or out to this point it doesn't anyways. @102 it appears to start to phase.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ok, so after looking at the 12z NAM, I'm sure there will be some talk of a phaser possibility and I'm already seeing HM over at accuweather throw around his "Big Daddy" mumbo jumbo analysis. Let me state up front this is incredibly remote and I can only remember 4-5 times in the past 50 years of a triple occurring. That being said, the players are on the field. I've drawn a sketch from the 84HR NAM. See below:

12znam500mbvort084.gif

Note the NAM shows the "potential" for a phaser or even a triple phaser. Note the pj piece rotating SE as the s/w ejects east. The NAM wants to depict an extremely sharp ridge out west. There are also a few lobes of energy rotating down the artic jet as shown. But could they meet and where? My gut tells me that any possibility of a triple phaser would most likely given the lack of a -NAO occur off the east coast and not in the gulf of mexico or basically east of the appalachian mountains. . The fact that the players are on the table is incredibly exciting and rare to see in the models and will be very interesting to track over the next 7 days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

that right there verbatim is record warmth for the Southeast....

Ya, because the pressure at 850mb is 994. Remember a low spins counter-clockwise. So it makes sense that the lower the pressure the stronger the gradient would be, therefore more gulf air would be tapped. Once the low passes, then folks will have a shot of snow with wrap-around precip... according to this run.

Also temps are relativity seasonal ahead of the low.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The biggest thing I can see AGAINST a significant storm is we lose the ridging out west. Doing that allows the northern jet to simply sweep through instead of phasing with the southern energy. I don't see it guys. It's nice to have the pieces on the table, and maybe they can fit together better in coming days, but it just looks like a frontal passage to me with warmer temps coming behind it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LP sliding through north FL @120. GFS doesn't know what piece of energy to key on. Disorganized blob of a system transversing the GOM and out to sea.

Like most storms this is going to come down to a wait and see approach. Should be interesting to see what the Euro says this afternoon. Again though GFS is sticking to it's guns about a gulf low so that's at least the good news.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing I've noticed over the past few winters is the over estimation of the strength of these PV features 5-7 days out.... last year, almost everytime the PV trended weaker. This is what allowed the N-NW trends we were used to. It remains to be seen if this is what happens here, as this is the first real threat we've had to gauge it on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z Canadian FWIW. S/w & pj interact and eject east, but western ridge not sharp enough any interaction with artic jet. 1010mb LP runs from northern gulf through northern FL to SE GA. Wet system.

Thicknesses in TN support snow. Can't see panel between 120->144

236_100.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...