Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II

[Met1985]

The run a least looks pretty cold. A couple shots of cold in the LR but still hope is alive. things will change from run to run just have to be patient.

[Bevo]

The run a least looks pretty cold. A couple shots of cold in the LR but still hope is alive. things will change from run to run just have to be patient.

I still do not see anything saying "no"...outside the Euro (for a snow chance). It still looks like a close call.

There was minimal change (0z GFS) from what I could gather. The Baja energy just didn't get booted. It wouldn't be that odd for the GFS to be wrong about that.

[griteater]

UKMet looks more like 12z/18z GFS than 00z GFS. Brings the baja low east and has surface low pressure off the SE coast at 144, with upper trough axis to the west, extending roughly from E MS to south of New Orleans.

[griteater]

Well, if we don't like the initial system with the Canadian at 144, it has another southern stream wave rolling into Arizona (at 144) with cold air filtering south out of cold high pressure over the upper midwest (1040-1044mb).

[MillzPirate]

Leave it to the ukmet to switch places with the ggem and start advertising a system

[rduwx]

How are the upper levels of the 12z Euro and the 0z GFS similar?

They're not exactly the same. Bad choice of words on my part. I should of said similar to the 12z euro.

[rduwx]

0z euro has a clipper coming south that transitions to a sfc low off the NC coast on Saturday morning. Looks like some light snow in NC. I'd say from around RDU west.

[rduwx]

The 0z euro does not have a big storm over the weekend. Now the clipper I mentioned in my previous post really blows up around hr 138 and 144 but it's out to sea.

[Met1985]

Well just one run. Looks very cold and no storm yet. We have a lot of runs left. If the GFS and the Eruo does not have this storm by Wed ot Thur then i will be worried but right now both models will waffel.

[GaWx]

0Z op. Doc LR meh.

[dsaur]

0Z op. Doc LR meh.

Well, Goofy has been on the energy in the gulf for a good week now, and trying to bring down the cold for a phase the whole while...and now, it's getting colder further south, and the suppression in the gulf starts to have a reason to be suppressed....so I think the Doc. will just have to get with the program, lol. My guess is the Gfs finally loses the gulf lows for a few runs, as is it's modus operandi, and the Doc. will pick up some version of a storm around midweek.

Of course trying to read the tea leaves in a winter of very weak tea, is a fools errand at best, lol. But I still like the idea of the first storm bringing down the cold for a second.

Any way, first and foremost, I need some rain, if nothing else. The last two systems have been disappointing, so if a storm pops, I hope it's moist! And if suppressed, I hope the northern shield finds my yard. T

[Met1985]

The storm is still suppressed on this run but a nice shot of cold air. Also some other things in the run was interesting. The time around hour 240 could be interesting with something brewing in the gulf again with a cold front coming down at the same time but it really does not look all that great outside the mountains but something to watch. Then at the end of the run looked very interesting and yes fantasy land but the way it looks big plunge of arctic air and it looks like the PV pretty much stays up along the Canada/US boarder through most of the run and noting this that could possibly contradict the way the AO is forecast. just something to keep in mind about the recent model mayhem. Also the end of the run may also coincide with Roger Smiths forecast for the end of Feb. So far he has been spot on this winter.Just some thoughts on this current model run.

[burgertime]

It certainly bodes well for TN if the GFS bias is in effect and cold air is in place. That baby will usually always track west. For us in the NC we need it down towards Cuba right now

and that's just what the 00z did. Let it suppress for a few runs just to pull back. Probably a little weenish of me but if the GFS keeps to it's bias this is probably a good sign.

Well, Goofy has been on the energy in the gulf for a good week now, and trying to bring down the cold for a phase the whole while...and now, it's getting colder further south, and the suppression in the gulf starts to have a reason to be suppressed....so I think the Doc. will just have to get with the program, lol. My guess is the Gfs finally loses the gulf lows for a few runs, as is it's modus operandi, and the Doc. will pick up some version of a storm around midweek.

Of course trying to read the tea leaves in a winter of very weak tea, is a fools errand at best, lol. But I still like the idea of the first storm bringing down the cold for a second.

Any way, first and foremost, I need some rain, if nothing else. The last two systems have been disappointing, so if a storm pops, I hope it's moist! And if suppressed, I hope the northern shield finds my yard. T

Again I keep having to repeat myself. The GFS has been on this storm consistently while the Euro has been a hot mess throwing every solution it can. Yes anything can happen and there may be no storm at all...but again this game has been played over and over again, usually when the GFS is so consistent on a storm it will end up happening in some form or another. Now the UKMet has a similar (from what I could read on here) solution. Remember Christmas (IRRC) of last year the GFS picked it up first and was very consistent....Euro hinted then finally bit only for the GFS to lose it. If by Wed. or Thurs. the Euro is sticking to it's guns I'll be a lot less confident. I just have a feeling this might be our best chance.

[calculus1]

Well, the 06Z GFS looks quite suppressed. But there is no lack of fantasy snow on that run. Every 2 or 3 days beyond next weekend there are snow chances in the SE. Very active and very interesting! Here are several surface depictions in the LR:

Here's hour 252:

Here's hour 312:

Here's hour 360:

Here's hour 372:

[tnweathernut]

Kind of surprised no one mentioned the NOGAPS from last night. If we are hunting models that still hold on to the gulf low idea, this one does. (in addition to the Ukie already mentioned). The nogaps develops a 1007 low about 150 miles south of Louisana and strenghtens it to 999 off the carolina coast. Very nice development and track.

[packbacker]

Well, the 06Z GFS looks quite suppressed. But there is no lack of fantasy snow on that run. Every 2 or 3 days beyond next weekend there are snow chances in the SE. Very active and very interesting! Here are several surface depictions in the LR:

The power of blocking, to bad it doesn't have model or ensemble support. We get blocking like that, then we might sneak a storm in.

[Tyler Penland]

Kind of surprised no one mentioned the NOGAPS from last night. If we are hunting models that still hold on to the gulf low idea, this one does. (in addition to the Ukie already mentioned). The nogaps develops a 1007 low about 150 miles south of Louisana and strenghtens it to 999 off the carolina coast. Very nice development and track.

It had it at 0z and 12z yesterday as well I believe.

Frankly I'll take suppression at day 5/6, especially given the biases we've seen in the GFS the last few years. Its kind of like an old man, he sees something, bends over to pick it up, then has to find it again because he lost it bending over.

[packbacker]

The euro was interesting, a lobe of the PV was really trying to nose down to phase with the southern energy in MX, but couldn't quite capture it, then it almost closes off just south of NC, which gives us that weak low and little but of precip which would be snow in RDU, maybe a dusting that would quickly melt, verbatim.

[burgertime]

Euro snowfall @132

[tnweathernut]

The euro was interesting, a lobe of the PV was really trying to nose down to phase with the southern energy in MX, but couldn't quite capture it, then it almost closes off just south of NC, which gives us that weak low and little but of precip which would be snow in RDU, maybe a dusting that would quickly melt, verbatim.

Yes, evidently the euro ensembles have gone toward what the gfs was showing for a storm off the atlantic coast with thermal proflles conducive for all snow for parts of NC and VA.

[jmundie]

Yeah - euro has two shots of light snow, tues/wed timeframe, and fri/sat for kentucky tenn and into VA and NC mountains (I doubt it makes it east of the mountains, unless it pops a surface low.

Euro not showing much in the way of accumulations in tennesse, but the surface in the mid 30s, 850s are quite cold, 534 thickness about at I40 with .1-.2 of qpf.

I'll take my chances with that set up, especially coming through in the wee hours of the morning.

Either one of those waves could amp up a bit and yield something more significant. I'm sure they'll wait until the last minute to show up in earnest on the models if they do though.

[tnweathernut]

Of course it's just after this period that the major models disagree once more. GFS says winter is here to stay for a few weeks and the Euro says winter is over after this coming cold shot this weekend.

[jmundie]

Of course it's just after this period that the major models disagree once more. GFS says winter is here to stay for a few weeks and the Euro says winter is over after this coming cold shot this weekend.

I undersand that the euro is generally better in the 5-7 day range, but in my opinion, this year it has actually been worse in the 7+ day range than the gfs. Remember, it was not that many days ago that it was dropping the entirety of this trough into the northern atlantic and keeping us warm.

And with the storm last week that cut off out west, and blasted colorado to nebraska, at ten days, the euro had that cut off and trough in the east, and possible snows in tennessee.

GFS this year, in the extended, has generally had the pieces of the puzzle on the table and in the vicinity of where the features are, then it kinda goes bonkers in the mid range, and then once it gets within 72 hours, it starts nailing things back down.

Its now breaking down the PNA ridge in the mid range, and then building it back again as we move into the long range. I'm not so sure it goes away entirely. We'll see I guess.

[bingcrosbyb]

06z GFS has me excited about the month of February. In the LR, three big systems in the NE with a 990mb on the 19th, a 991mb on the 21st, and a 982mb on the 22nd. The southern stream really ramps up, but is still suppressed enough for big SE potential.

[burgertime]

Is this the energy we would want to triple phase? On the 84 NAM that energy in Canada is diving down..at a good clip. GFS might be interesting.

[MillzPirate]

Is this the energy we would want to triple phase? On the 84 NAM that energy in Canada is diving down..at a good clip. GFS might be interesting.

its close, but the parcel we really need to be sampled wont enter British Columbia until Wednesday night, so its pretty much guess work until that enters

[packfan98]

In years past, we would all be pretty excited about the fact that several models are hinting at a productive pattern and we would be starting to talk specifics about the track of the system and the typical model biases. The GFS usually starts the honking and then backs away in the 3-5 day range while the Euro doesn't see a storm in the long term because of holding back energy but often starts to pick up the storm when the GFS starts to lose it. There has also been some other models that have had some favorable runs like the NO GAPS, UK MET, Canadian. I haven't heard anything about the JMA or the best fantasy storm maker in weenie history, the DGEX. Does anyone have any information on their past few runs? Its difficult for anyone to get excited after the non-winter thus far, but if things keep coming around the mid and latter part of this week could be hopping in the SE Forum. Good luck to us all!

Is this the energy we would want to triple phase? On the 84 NAM that energy in Canada is diving down..at a good clip. GFS might be interesting.

[HurricaneTracker]

The 0z euro does not have a big storm over the weekend. Now the clipper I mentioned in my previous post really blows up around hr 138 and 144 but it's out to sea.

This is actually more climatologically favored for this time of year, and not unusual to see Clippers deepen over water.

[Brick Tamland]

It does seem like an interesting trend is starting to develop for this weekend. GFS has been showing something, and now the Euro is hinting at it, too, even if it's not as big as what the GFS has shown. At least it is something to watch and there is a chance, which is more than we can say for this winter so far.

[NCStateMMY]

its close, but the parcel we really need to be sampled wont enter British Columbia until Wednesday night, so its pretty much guess work until that enters

My concern about a triple phase would be if it phases to early, near LA in sead of over N FL, the storm ould be pulled to far inland. You would see a blizzard for the west of the Appalachians and Ohio Valley, while the SE would be staring at a tornado outbreak.