Cheeznado Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The New Euro is awful for winter lovers. No Gulf storm to speak of, and no cold air except a brief very minor shot. By the end the zonal Pacific flow returns with a vengance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 More tough news for us: @RyanMaue: Every GFS and CMC ensemble shows European cold lasting at least for the next 10-15 days. http://policlimate.com/weather/ensemble/gens_swath_europe.html Cold remains in Europe for at least bulk of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 More tough news for us: @RyanMaue: Every GFS and CMC ensemble shows European cold lasting at least for the next 10-15 days. http://policlimate.c...ath_europe.html Cold remains in Europe for at least bulk of February. Ya reading some on the main forum looks like we are screwed. When the AO turned negative it sent the cold air on the wrong side of the world. Just our luck this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Well 6z is back to showing a nice storm for us with subsequent cold shots and moisture hooking up. A true fantasy at this rate but I guess you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Well 6z is back to showing a nice storm for us with subsequent cold shots and moisture hooking up. A true fantasy at this rate but I guess you never know. On a normal year thie 06z would start the board buzzing. At 10 days out, well, we all know the drill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Well 6z is back to showing a nice storm for us with subsequent cold shots and moisture hooking up. A true fantasy at this rate but I guess you never know. Fwiw, I do think the 6z Goofy is likely showing some CAD induced ZR for part of W NC late 2/8 to early 2/9 from a Miller B type. Then there is a Miller A for 2/10-11 that produces up to 2-3" of snow in part of NC as currently depicted fwiw. This is an exciting run for NC for 2/8-11 for sure and just about the most exciting run for them this winter! Will Feb be rockin' after all ? Stay tuned to this board for further updates as they become available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 On a normal year thie 06z would start the board buzzing. At 10 days out, well, we all know the drill. Except the first threat, CAD induced ZR for WNC, is now only six days out on the 6z Goofy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 On a normal year thie 06z would start the board buzzing. At 10 days out, well, we all know the drill. It's just gonna go down as that type of winter. Of interest for sure is as someone else said this might be the most nailed Miller A track in the history of the GFS. It just won't let go of it. We just need the temps to be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Well 6z is back to showing a nice storm for us with subsequent cold shots and moisture hooking up. A true fantasy at this rate but I guess you never know. I just read Matthew East's blog post for today. He sounds like he isn't buying it. I'm sure it'll change the closer we get to the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Fwiw, I do think the 6z Goofy is likely showing some CAD induced ZR for part of W NC late 2/8 to early 2/9 from a Miller B type. Then there is a Miller A for 2/10-11 that produces up to 2-3" of snow in part of NC as currently depicted fwiw. This is an exciting run for NC for 2/8-11 for sure and just about the most exciting run for them this winter! Will Feb be rockin' after all ? Stay tuned to this board for further updates as they become available. If that 2/10 - 11 threat were four days away we would be ecstatic. That's really the perfect track for me. Just far enough east to wobble west and slam MBY. I put my chips in. All I can hope for is an Ace on the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Fwiw, I do think the 6z Goofy is likely showing some CAD induced ZR for part of W NC late 2/8 to early 2/9 from a Miller B type. Then there is a Miller A for 2/10-11 that produces up to 2-3" of snow in part of NC as currently depicted fwiw. This is an exciting run for NC for 2/8-11 for sure and just about the most exciting run for them this winter! Will Feb be rockin' after all ? Stay tuned to this board for further updates as they become available. The problem is there is no cold air to make it happen. Where's the cold supposed to be coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The problem is there is no cold air to make it happen. Where's the cold supposed to be coming from? On the 6z there is...do you even look at the maps before you say things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 On the 6z there is...do you even look at the maps before you say things? Yes, I know what the model says, but I'm talking about in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 It's just gonna go down as that type of winter. Of interest for sure is as someone else said this might be the most nailed Miller A track in the history of the GFS. It just won't let go of it. We just need the temps to be there. Yeah - I noticed the ensembles are all over it, and there's been a significant cold trend in the 6-10 day time frame. Hoping for an old school NW trend so Nashville would be in the jackpot. Haven't had a storm with more than 4 inches at the airport since 2003. We need a big synoptic event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Yes, I know what the model says, but I'm talking about in reality. I hate to be the one to point this out, but a 6 day model prog is fairly well disconnected from reality. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I hate to be the one to point this out, but a 6 day model prog is fairly well disconnected from reality. Just sayin'. Hell a one day model prog can be disconnected from reality. As for Brick, listen closely. I'm not saying or believing it will happen the way 6z depicts it...simply that it's there. You bet I hope it does though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 NAM looks borderline with this weekends system right around the NC/Va border.....trending colder? Thoughts?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 On the 6z there is...do you even look at the maps before you say things? Sometimes I wonder if everyone is looking at the same maps. I don't see any "real" cold air arriving for at least 10 days according to the 6z GFS. Certainly not cold enough for anything frozen anywhere in the Southeast. For the event in question 2/8-9, surface temperatures would probably be in the low 40's or upper 30's at best in much of NC. There really is no cold air source in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Sometimes I wonder if everyone is looking at the same maps. I don't see any "real" cold air arriving for at least 10 days according to the 6z GFS. Certainly not cold enough for anything frozen anywhere in the Southeast. For the event in question 2/8-9, surface temperatures would probably be in the low 40's or upper 30's at best in much of NC. There really is no cold air source in this case. Verbatim there is certainly enough cold air to produce snow for the event ten days from now on the 6z. Would it accumulate? Well that's another question. 2m temps are almost always off with any event and progged too warm. Again will it happen? Probably not. It's there though. Again is it "real"? Guess time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Verbatim there is certainly enough cold air to produce snow for the event ten days from now on the 6z. Would it accumulate? Well that's another question. 2m temps are almost always off with any event and progged too warm. Again will it happen? Probably not. It's there though. Again is it "real"? Guess time will tell. That's a wind chill map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 That's a wind chill map Whoops. I guess it did look awfully cold for everywhere . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 That's a wind chill map I guess we don't all look at the same maps then. In all seriousness I was referencing the Feb 8-10th which was the event in question. Day 10 and beyond there is plenty of cold air. Just a little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Yes, I know what the model says, but I'm talking about in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I guess we don't all look at the same maps then. In all seriousness I was referencing the Feb 8-10th which was the event in question. Day 10 and beyond there is plenty of cold air. Just a little too late. Yea totally pulled the wrong map. Point proven. I'll just go hide now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I guess we don't all look at the same maps then. In all seriousness I was referencing the Feb 8-10th which was the event in question. Day 10 and beyond there is plenty of cold air. Just a little too late. lol and just FTR..I use SV which lays everything out for idiots like me. I rarely have to look at individual maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Yea totally pulled the wrong map. Point proven. I'll just go hide now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 12z might end up being colder. It has colder air spilling more towards central Canada as opposed to shunting way NE. Storm in the GOM right now @165 looks like it might take a Miller A track..we'll see though. Temps still aren't cold enough for our liking at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Colder air is spilling south at 183..but looks like it's going to be too little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 After 200 the GFS looks a lot better...more like the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Colder air is spilling south at 183..but looks like it's going to be too little too late. Colder but storm too far east.....maybe OBX get some token flakes.....I'm still liking this potential. First time this year players have been on the field that long!! Don't take'em out coach!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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