LithiaWx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Its very very close to going boom. 00z tonight will be fun meh, idk I see how some of you think it might phase but I don't see it being that close. There are going to need to be some serious trends in the locations of the vorticity for that to happen. Perhaps folks in NC have a better shot but phasing in a place that benefits folks in AL/GA is very very low imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Interesting piece of energy diving down in the west, the northern system tries to phase with that instead of the southern stream and then does phase with the southern stream a little to late.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Wow shocked people aren't more excited...it might not happen but this is a wonderful trend. We'll have to see by the middle of this week, but for NC it looked pretty durn good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 What's really going to be interesting are th s/w's that aren't on the roab grid yet that become sampled 72 hrs out that cause a full phase.... Tricky little setup for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 It's better to see it like it is now and let it trend better as we go on that to see some sub 990 bomb that everyone weenies their pants over only to lose it where we would see some Jonestownish weenie suicide I agree I am just saying a little to early for me. I do think we get something soon whether this weekend or after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Stays nice and cold right through the long range despite a slight warm up for a day or two. This just may be our first legit threat to keep our eyes on at the rate this is going. Of course, given the period in which this occurs, we still have to wait a while before we can begin to become more confident but it remains interesting. Hopefully we will be able to continue to hold onto this threat and perhaps we may end up with something nice on our hands to analyze for the latter portion of this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Maybe it will supress a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Wow shocked people aren't more excited...it might not happen but this is a wonderful trend. We'll have to see by the middle of this week, but for NC it looked pretty durn good to me. THANK YOU Burger!! This is the first look 7 days and under this so-called winter season. The possibilities are closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Maybe it will supress a little. I hope not for the folks in the MA forums sake. They're all about to off themselves, it's pretty rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Wow shocked people aren't more excited...it might not happen but this is a wonderful trend. We'll have to see by the middle of this week, but for NC it looked pretty durn good to me. It's becasue the people who jumped are dead now. It's just us left. I haven't doubted the "chance" since we've seen it show up time and time again on the GFS...looking forward to seeing the 00z runs, but for now, I have a game to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Its very very close to going boom. 00z tonight will be fun Not really, phasing between the ejecting baja energy and northern stream occurs over southern TX around 132 hrs, with a more robust piece of energy embedded within a lobe of the PV near the Dakotas. Right around 156hrs on this run for example is where you would want those to phase, southern impulse near the western FL panhandle, but the northern vort is about 500 miles north. Easy distance to make up in the 7 day range. However, this is the GFS and it looks nothing like the EC. Sorry, but I will always take the Euro at day 7 over the global for the simple fact of being right more times than not. Positives to take away, 90 hrs away from a vigorous vort entering conus around Glacier National park, western MT/ID are pretty good entrance points for SE storms down the road this time of year with a stout PNA. I am not sold though that the BAJA cutoff will eject in time to catch this energy though. If they were to hook up, even in the absence of a more dominant northern stream phase later on over the lower MS river valley, we could still get a storm, but with only marginal cold to work with and suppressed (as the 18z run shows) since hgts are not crashing nearly as much on the backside, as they would with a more phasing scenario. Cold core conveyer needs cold to turn, this run did not have much and still painted a nice little SN from ATL-GSP-RDU. Could care less what the surface temps are, thickness was marginally supportive, and A scenario supports one dominant frozen type. Not biting until we have a consensus, chaos at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I hope not for the folks in the MA forums sake. They're all about to off themselves, it's pretty rough. I mean, if we get a gulf storm I hope it would supress a little or stay in the gulf so it could bring snow to Central Alabama. Still have to look at the temps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Wow shocked people aren't more excited...it might not happen but this is a wonderful trend. We'll have to see by the middle of this week, but for NC it looked pretty durn good to me. I could not agree more burger! I am excited. I no we have been burned to many times this season so people are holding back but this is a real threat! Ya the models have been wavering but when have they not. Good times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Robert weighs in with a new post on his site. http://wxsouth.com/?p=127 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Not really, phasing between the ejecting baja energy and northern stream occurs over southern TX around 132 hrs, with a more robust piece of energy embedded within a lobe of the PV near the Dakotas. Right around 156hrs on this run for example is where you would want those to phase, southern impulse near the western FL panhandle, but the onorthern vort is about 500 miles north. Easy distance to make up in the 7 day range. However, this is the GFS and it looks nothing like the EC. Sorry, but I will always take the Euro at day 7 over the global for the simple fact of being right more times than not. Positives to take away, 90 hrs away from a vigorous vort entering conus around Glacier National park, western MT/ID are pretty good entrance points for SE storms down the road this time of year with a stout PNA. I am not sold though that the BAJA cutoff will eject in time to catch this energy though. If they were to hook up, even in the absence of a more dominant northern stream phase later on over the lower MS river valley, we could still get a storm, but with only marginal cold to work with and suppressed (as the 18z run shows) since hgts are not crashing nearly as much on the backside, as they would with a more phasing scenario. Cold core conveyer needs cold to turn, this run did not have much and still painted a nice little SN from ATL-GSP-RDU. Could care less what the surface temps are, thickness was marginally supportive, and A scenario supports one dominant frozen type. Not biting until we have a consensus, chaos at the moment. like you said it 500 miles can easily be made up. With the pv moving further south each run it can help force the vort south. Not worried at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 NWS Blacksburg: High pressure and zonal flow will keep the area dry Thursday night into Friday night. A weak cold front will stall just west of the Appalachians Friday afternoon. Models are developing a Gulf disturbance this coming weekend. The GFS tracks this disturbance across Florida...then off the shore of the southeast coast. The European model (ecmwf) tracks this disturbance over Florida and then out to sea. The stalled front to our west has ME a little concerned. This front may allow the Gulf disturbance to track further inland and increase the chances for precipitation. For now...will leaned pop forecast toward the GFS/European model (ecmwf) solutions...keeping the weekend dry. It seems many systems have tracked more east than projected this past year. I am curious to say the least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 like you said it 500 miles can easily be made up. With the pv moving further south each run it can help force the vort south. Not worried at this range Some of us in East TN don't want a suppressed system. The 0Z last night gave us about 2". However, seeing as how my flower bulbs are already poking through (and one of them is already blooming) I'm not sure a snow right now will be good for the plants. The GFS has gone from an East TN run, to no snow in the se (6Z), to some snow in the south, and now this. I think it's too early to tell for anything and it's all rampant speculation at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 @RyanMaue: That cold air is past 4-5 days away, but the GFS ensembles are bullish on major E. USA cold blast. http://policlimate.com/weather/ensemble/gens_t2m_anom_usa.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 That little spin in the Yucatan channel has been fun to watch today. Wonder what will become of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Not really, phasing between the ejecting baja energy and northern stream occurs over southern TX around 132 hrs, with a more robust piece of energy embedded within a lobe of the PV near the Dakotas. Right around 156hrs on this run for example is where you would want those to phase, southern impulse near the western FL panhandle, but the northern vort is about 500 miles north. Easy distance to make up in the 7 day range. However, this is the GFS and it looks nothing like the EC. Sorry, but I will always take the Euro at day 7 over the global for the simple fact of being right more times than not. Positives to take away, 90 hrs away from a vigorous vort entering conus around Glacier National park, western MT/ID are pretty good entrance points for SE storms down the road this time of year with a stout PNA. I am not sold though that the BAJA cutoff will eject in time to catch this energy though. If they were to hook up, even in the absence of a more dominant northern stream phase later on over the lower MS river valley, we could still get a storm, but with only marginal cold to work with and suppressed (as the 18z run shows) since hgts are not crashing nearly as much on the backside, as they would with a more phasing scenario. Cold core conveyer needs cold to turn, this run did not have much and still painted a nice little SN from ATL-GSP-RDU. Could care less what the surface temps are, thickness was marginally supportive, and A scenario supports one dominant frozen type. Not biting until we have a consensus, chaos at the moment. My only issue with that is that the GFS has been on this for forever or a solution like it. The Euro has been all over the place. I get what you're saying, it's just hard to take the Euro seriously with it being so inconsistent and the GFS keeping the same thing over and over again. Well I'm sure mine is a little wishcasting, but again the GFS is just so consistent with this thing....or some sort of gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I will say this much about the long range guidance. If the biases are playing and in full effect we probably get some sort of gulf storm. GFS too progressive, EURO holds the energy back. Something in between those two might yield a nice Miller A for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 A met on the NE board was talking about the potential for a triple phaser. It appears some have taken. To recreational drug use this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I will say this much about the long range guidance. If the biases are playing and in full effect we probably get some sort of gulf storm. GFS too progressive, EURO holds the energy back. Something in between those two might yield a nice Miller A for us. It certainly bodes well for TN if the GFS bias is in effect and cold air is in place. That baby will usually always track west. For us in the NC we need it down towards Cuba right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 A met on the NE board was talking about the potential for a triple phaser. It appears some have taken. To recreational drug use this winter. Which met? if it was Will, then I might get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 A met on the NE board was talking about the potential for a triple phaser. It appears some have taken. To recreational drug use this winter. With such a tall ridge and displaced Baja wave, its actually not far off, but the timing usually doesn't work out on that. It looks to me like part of the northern stream breaks away from the main flow in Canada and links up with the Baja wave. We've seen the northern stream break away s/w many, many times this season, so we'll see if it happens again. But the timing would almost have to be perfect to link up, and the ECMWF isn't doing that. If the northern stream outruns Baja wave, then we're looking at a cold front passing. If the southern stream outruns the northern stream, then the gulf system would likely pull much further north than shown and rain a lot of areas, esp. east of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 With such a tall ridge and displaced Baja wave, its actually not far off, but the timing usually doesn't work out on that. It looks to me like part of the northern stream breaks away from the main flow in Canada and links up with the Baja wave. We've seen the northern stream break away s/w many, many times this season, so we'll see if it happens again. But the timing would almost have to be perfect to link up, and the ECMWF isn't doing that. If the northern stream outruns Baja wave, then we're looking at a cold front passing. If the southern stream outruns the northern stream, then the gulf system would likely pull much further north than shown and rain a lot of areas, esp. east of the Apps. that is exactly what a famous met from Pennsylvania said this morning. Looks like you both are on same page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 LOL - that little spin in the Yucatan channel i mentioned above has been designated as Invest 90! Not unheard of to have an invest during the off season, but still fun to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 With such a tall ridge and displaced Baja wave, its actually not far off, but the timing usually doesn't work out on that. It looks to me like part of the northern stream breaks away from the main flow in Canada and links up with the Baja wave. We've seen the northern stream break away s/w many, many times this season, so we'll see if it happens again. But the timing would almost have to be perfect to link up, and the ECMWF isn't doing that. If the northern stream outruns Baja wave, then we're looking at a cold front passing. If the southern stream outruns the northern stream, then the gulf system would likely pull much further north than shown and rain a lot of areas, esp. east of the Apps. Wow... Hadn't even been looking that closely at 5h.... It's not THAT far off... Would love to see an ensemble member try to do it just to see the potential strength this could be (just for fun) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 With such a tall ridge and displaced Baja wave, its actually not far off, but the timing usually doesn't work out on that. It looks to me like part of the northern stream breaks away from the main flow in Canada and links up with the Baja wave. We've seen the northern stream break away s/w many, many times this season, so we'll see if it happens again. But the timing would almost have to be perfect to link up, and the ECMWF isn't doing that. If the northern stream outruns Baja wave, then we're looking at a cold front passing. If the southern stream outruns the northern stream, then the gulf system would likely pull much further north than shown and rain a lot of areas, esp. east of the Apps. Robert, at only 120 out it's wouldn't take much at all for there to be a phase. The ridge looks GREAT. We'd just need that closed low to scoot a little further east or the ridge to be a hair sharper. Overall, a really good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 LOL - that little spin in the Yucatan channel i mentioned above has been designated as Invest 90! Not unheard of to have an invest during the off season, but still fun to follow. I think because the GFS keeping it spinning around down there is probably what keeps the frontal boundry to it's west just long enough to help initiate the gulf low later next week. If that zooms on out my guess would be that the Euro cold front idea with no gulf low has a good chance of coming true. Just a guess though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.