pcbjr Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Understanding that Mods are keeping track on posts, I hope this is the appropriate place to put this (if not, excuse me and please no bad points as a result!). Seems if the prelim track across part of south or central Fla plays out, even with a minor low, it would cause colder air to drain further south than what the models have shown up to now. And would add precip into the equation. Since Invests are not common this time of year - I'm wondering if anyone has data/analogues for such an occurance (??). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Well HPC isn't buying a phase storm... PRELIMINARY UPDATE... USED A PROGRESSIVE BLEND FROM THE 00Z/05 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF TOWARD THE 00Z/05 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE SITS BETWEEN THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE UKMET...WHICH PLACES THE SAME TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE OTHER MODELS...WHICH FITS THE PATTERN SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS COLD SEASON. CANADA IS COOLED TREMENDOUSLY VIA THE CROSS-POLAR FLOW INTO THE COUNTRY...BUT THE ARCTIC AIR HAS NO MECHANISM BY WHICH TO INFILTRATE THE UNITED STATES TO ANY APPRECIABLE DEGREE. THE FLOW IS ALSO NOT CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS...SO EXPECT NO SPRAWLING AREAS OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. If you look at the day 8-10 on the Euro ENS, the torch is coming....The GFS supports this idea in the day 8-10 timeframe, the GFS ENS/OP does rebuild the cold. We shall see, but the models do agree on a cool down next weekend and than a warm up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I think that's an old update unless they recycled words...sounds like yesterdays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 "The first Super Sunday Invest in history formed this morning in the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba, and is slowly becoming more organized as it moves northeast towards Southwest Florida." - Dr. Masters It appears to me it will swing its warm tropical air-mass over Florida and go out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Well HPC isn't buying a phase storm... PRELIMINARY UPDATE... USED A PROGRESSIVE BLEND FROM THE 00Z/05 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF TOWARD THE 00Z/05 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE SITS BETWEEN THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE UKMET...WHICH PLACES THE SAME TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE OTHER MODELS...WHICH FITS THE PATTERN SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS COLD SEASON. CANADA IS COOLED TREMENDOUSLY VIA THE CROSS-POLAR FLOW INTO THE COUNTRY...BUT THE ARCTIC AIR HAS NO MECHANISM BY WHICH TO INFILTRATE THE UNITED STATES TO ANY APPRECIABLE DEGREE. THE FLOW IS ALSO NOT CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS...SO EXPECT NO SPRAWLING AREAS OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. If you look at the day 8-10 on the Euro ENS, the torch is coming....The GFS supports this idea in the day 8-10 timeframe, the GFS ENS/OP does rebuild the cold. We shall see, but the models do agree on a cool down next weekend and than a warm up... Models have been all over the place. I would not trust models for the long range past 4 days out. I just took a look at the 12Z run and I really don't see a torch coming in the 8-10 day time-frame. Also the ensembles for the 5-10 day time frame do not support a torch. I don't have access to the Euro ENS, but the operational run does not feature a torch. I can't see a torch happening, with the way the teleconnections are and the way the MJO is heading, within like 10-15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 the GGEM is a dream run for central/NE NC. Too bad it's in fantasy land. At least we have that. It's been hard to even have fantasty storms this winter. I guess that means there is a chance, but I won't buy it until I actually see snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 At least we have that. It's been hard to even have fantasty storms this winter. I guess that means there is a chance, but I won't buy it until I actually see snow falling. yes u will if it continues to show it. That's the in you, just like everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 18z is trying, let's see if it gets there, moisture gathering at 126 in TX and a weak surface reflection way down in the western gulf. Nice high coming down too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 at 144 looks like a swing and a miss coming up shortly, but we will see. Nice ridge out west, and positive trough coming through the lower mississippi valley. My guess is that it will initiate cyclogenesis in the atlantic ocean this run while just swinging a nice cool front through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 at 144 looks like a swing and a miss coming up shortly, but we will see. Nice ridge out west, and positive trough coming through the lower mississippi valley. My guess is that it will initiate cyclogenesis in the atlantic ocean this run while just swinging a nice cool front through here. 156 slp east of SAV... Really close to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 at 156, a 1006 low in the atlantic with a trough going slightly negative deep in the southeast, a weak surface reflection back toward northern GA and western NC yielding a little bit of precip in cooler air. Not a bad run so far all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 at 144 looks like a swing and a miss coming up shortly, but we will see. Nice ridge out west, and positive trough coming through the lower mississippi valley. My guess is that it will initiate cyclogenesis in the atlantic ocean this run while just swinging a nice cool front through here. Nope, not a "swing and a miss"......it does show some moisture being thrown back into the cold air before the storm departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I know a week or two ago the long range models had a Tropical Low in the gulf. Well right now, we have invest 90L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Nope, not a "swing and a miss"......it does show some moisture being thrown back into the cold air before the storm departs. It largely is a swing and a miss, but the weak surface reflection shown helps with an area of enhanced precip. These models can't see 2 days out right now, so that is likely hogwash too but it did throw a little bone at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I see verbatim light snow for the southeast AL to GA to SC/NC. Thickness is very marginal and surface temps are above freezing but I think this would produce some token snow that doesn't stick. Everything is marginal but I think that would be snow. I'll say it again, this system has potential to be a surprise for some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I will say this though, it's not very far off at all from showing something VERY intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 This run looks like it did put down light snow across the Southeast but I question how much this would be sticking on the ground... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 NWS Blacksburg: High pressure and zonal flow will keep the area dry Thursday night into Friday night. A weak cold front will stall just west of the Appalachians Friday afternoon. Models are developing a Gulf disturbance this coming weekend. The GFS tracks this disturbance across Florida...then off the shore of the southeast coast. The European model (ecmwf) tracks this disturbance over Florida and then out to sea. The stalled front to our west has ME a little concerned. This front may allow the Gulf disturbance to track further inland and increase the chances for precipitation. For now...will leaned pop forecast toward the GFS/European model (ecmwf) solutions...keeping the weekend dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I see verbatim light snow for the southeast AL to GA to SC/NC. Thickness is very marginal and surface temps are above freezing but I think this would produce some token snow that doesn't stick. Everything is marginal but I think that would be snow. Reading that much into the 18z gfs at 162 is futile... The fact that it has the storm still is a plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Why does it seem like the moisture is so wide spread? With a low that far off the coast I find it hard to believe the moisture is that widespread? Obviously this is still a good ways out, i just cant see it playing out like that. If the low was closer to the coast i could buy it, but then it seems the cold air wouldnt invade as well as it does on this run of the gfs. Hey, its good to look at though, hope it keeps trending this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Reading that much into the 18z gfs at 162 is futile... The fact that it has the storm still is a plus The GFS at 162 is not fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The GFS at 162 is not fantasy land. No but it's surface depiction is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 No but it's surface depiction is touche Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 good to see a possibility but nothing to get excited about yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 18z GFS is looking great with a nice shot of wintry precip, following with a robust cold shot. E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Its very very close to going boom. 00z tonight will be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 NWS Blacksburg: High pressure and zonal flow will keep the area dry Thursday night into Friday night. A weak cold front will stall just west of the Appalachians Friday afternoon. Models are developing a Gulf disturbance this coming weekend. The GFS tracks this disturbance across Florida...then off the shore of the southeast coast. The European model (ecmwf) tracks this disturbance over Florida and then out to sea. The stalled front to our west has ME a little concerned. This front may allow the Gulf disturbance to track further inland and increase the chances for precipitation. For now...will leaned pop forecast toward the GFS/European model (ecmwf) solutions...keeping the weekend dry. I was going to mention this earlier, but this is a very good point. That invest in the gulf may jam things up just enough to leave behind the frontal boundry to the west and when all is said and done we could have a strenghtening low running from the western gulf into Alabama and Georgia. Will be interesting to see how the system down there changes things this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 good to see a possibility but nothing to get excited about yet It's better to see it like it is now and let it trend better as we go on that to see some sub 990 bomb that everyone weenies their pants over only to lose it where we would see some Jonestownish weenie suicide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 NWS Blacksburg: High pressure and zonal flow will keep the area dry Thursday night into Friday night. A weak cold front will stall just west of the Appalachians Friday afternoon. Models are developing a Gulf disturbance this coming weekend. The GFS tracks this disturbance across Florida...then off the shore of the southeast coast. The European model (ecmwf) tracks this disturbance over Florida and then out to sea. The stalled front to our west has ME a little concerned. This front may allow the Gulf disturbance to track further inland and increase the chances for precipitation. For now...will leaned pop forecast toward the GFS/European model (ecmwf) solutions...keeping the weekend dry. I too would think or bet the low goes more inland than the models show right now especially if the front stalls out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I see verbatim light snow for the southeast AL to GA to SC/NC. Thickness is very marginal and surface temps are above freezing but I think this would produce some token snow that doesn't stick. Everything is marginal but I think that would be snow. I know it still 6-7 days out but, this is the best look the GFS has had all winter at that range. IMHO this is the first real threat we have seen. It's still not there but it's close to something big. We need to get the cold air in here just a little bit earlier and have a more amped up system. It does go neutral tilt at a good spot but it doesn't run up the coast. I don't buy that. Will have to see what the individual members look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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