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Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II


Marion_NC_WX

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On this one I'll be shocked if the Euro is right. Last night it trended towards the GFS also the GFS has been extremely bullish on a GOM low and consistent with this cold front sweeping through for the most part. Euro has been all over the place.

I haven't looked at another model since the 0z run of the GFS last night, interesting to see the Euro/UK/GGEM and even JMA today.

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AFD from FFC today, Steve Nelson did this one

A COUPLE NICE ARCTIC HIGHS PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE PLAINS AND

CENTRAL CONUS...ONE BY WED AND ANOTHER FRI...GFS A LITTLE STRONGER

THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE SECOND HIGH. PERHAPS WELL GET A GLANCING

BLOW OF MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND.

SNELSON

So an arctic high sets up and all we get is a glancing blow of seasonal temps ? What does it take to get below normal temps ?

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lol the JMA that will be good for laughs

I just parked someone for a post of similar quality, considering you are kind of new, this is your warning. See the pinned etiquette thread if you have not already. Why will the JMA be good for laughs, care to post a graphic, please elaborate.. Thank you

Folks, this is not your Grandpa's back 40 type of wx-thread, please stop posting like it is. Add a little substance, ask a meaningful question, or just read. Carry on :)

im saying its crap ( well thats my opinion) it gives better fantasy storms than the GFS

NCEP only tracks JMA verification through 72 hrs, where it has the same score as the GFS currently.

cor_day3_HGT_P500_G2NHX_00Z.png

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Last winter aside, the Euro seems to suffer from a -nao bias in nina winters in the far end of its deterministic run. I remember 2007-8 winter when Chuck started threads about changes pointing toward this Euro type solution, never happened. At least the Euro's ensemble runs the last two 12z runs were way more subdued than the op run. I just think all of the models in general have been shakier beyond day 4 or 5 than they were the last two winters, might be a by product of having a nina that is behaving more like a nina? IDK.

I think the nina pattern is a big factor and the euro has always liked negative nao regimes more than it should in the extended. However, the last two years have been negative noa years so it's looked pretty good. Now we're in a positive nao year and it doesn't look as rosey.

That doesn't happen very often....we know how this is going to end. We are in the Euro's wheel house now...

discussed in another thread

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I just parked someone for a post of similar quality, considering you are kind of new, this is your warning. See the pinned etiquette thread if you have not already. Why will the JMA be good for laughs, care to post a graphic, please elaborate.. Thank you

Folks, this is not your Grandpa's back 40 type of wx-thread, please stop posting like it is. Add a little substance, ask a meaningful question, or just read. Carry on :)

NCEP only tracks JMA verification through 72 hrs, where it has the same score as the GFS currently.

cor_day3_HGT_P500_G2NHX_00Z.png

I was speaking on the long range of the JMA. Over the years it seems to always have great fantasy storms. but that can be talked about on the other thread. carry on

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I was speaking on the long range of the JMA. Over the years it seems to always have great fantasy storms. but that can be talked about on the other thread. carry on

I think the thing is, it has just as many fantasy scenarios as the other models. Hell the UKMet and CMC have fantasy storms. The difference is the JMA is almost never brought up unless it has a fantasy storm on it. So we always think of the JMA as that wonky model showing snow when no one else does...even though it probably has the same rate of showing them as the GFS/Euro.

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Really beleiving this is a legit oppurtnity as we head towards next weekend. Nogaps,CMC(thankspackbacker) and of course GFS are showing us being very close to a good hit or near miss by the skin of our teeth. May strike out on this one, but it's becoming likely a nail biter is on the way. Should be fun to track this week.

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If there is one positive thing I can say is that we do have a better shot at sustained cold currently. Teleconnection's are looking better, currently, than they were in the beginning of the winter. The only teleconnection that is still not in our favor is the NAO. The MJO is at 7 now and it forecasted to stay in 7 or 8 for some time according to the GFS's ensembles. I really hope that the NAO will go negative, so a storm can slide up the East coast, but that's wishcasting on my part :).

ensplume_full.gif

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Goofy still has my cold rain next weekend (Sunday into Monday) and gives me a bonus rain for Valentines and tops off the run with a couple inches of snow :wub::lol: Fantasy storms have been hard to come by this winter and at this point I'll enjoy dreaming of my metaphysical flizzard ^_^

It's troubling we have to wait a week for meaningful rains...and then one could question how meaningful! Fortunately we only have to look back a run or two, or wait a run or two, and we'll see chances sooner, and probably better, lol. I'm more worried now about getting decent precip. than getting some cold in. The gulf keeps active, but it also is trending toward suppressed. The last week + has been pitiful for rain here, and only 3 weeks to make up for it. T

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The long range of the Euro isn't "meh", it's absolute ugliness. We can only hope it's not right. I really want to see either the Ukie or Euro bring the closed low around the southwest east instead of hanging it back. I know it's a bias, but with both of them giving a similar look you can't discount it. If that's our only hope for snow this year we all better be rooting hard for it to come out and phase.

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What bothers me is the relative model agreement now to keep the closed low near the top o the pna ridge. If it doesn't drop down (like the 0z gfs shows) it doesn't elongate the trough, which brings it closer to the bah low pulling it eastward allowing for the phase. We get a transient shot of cooler air in that scenario.

The ensembles have trended "phasier" the last three runs, so I'm hoping that's the solutions were moving towards, but I'm certainly nervous about it. A phase not only brings the best chance for a big southern snow, but it pulls in an insane amount of cold air just easy of the missisippi river and pulls the pv further south, which allows for the possibility of ridging over Greenland and sustained cold.

Our hopes are in a small closed low and it's interaction with the pv days before this threat can materialize.

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Really shocked at the negativity on the site today. I just reviewed a good bit of the 12z data and I think we are pretty close to having a decent threat next weekend. I was actually surprised at the amazing amount of agreement in the long range. Next weekend looks very interesting and is about a hair away from being a big deal for some. Already the GFS/CMC/and Nogaps are flirting with some wintry precip on the north and west side of the Gulf Low and again oh so close to being a major deal. The Euro misses the phase but then again it had nothing on it on the past runs. Will def. be a good time frame to keep an eye on. Things have treneded better and better for this timeframe.

12z GFS 153-171:

usapcpprstmp850mb153i.gif

usapcpprstmp850mb159u.gif

usapcpprstmp850mb165v.gif

usapcpprstmp850mb168n.gif

usapcpprstmp850mb171e.gif

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The long range of the Euro isn't "meh", it's absolute ugliness. We can only hope it's not right. I really want to see either the Ukie or Euro bring the closed low around the southwest east instead of hanging it back. I know it's a bias, but with both of them giving a similar look you can't discount it. If that's our only hope for snow this year we all better be rooting hard for it to come out and phase.

Seems to me that the models are having issues w/ how the northern and southern branches are going to interact - if at all. Also, how much energy will be left in the southwest - if any? If a phasing event is going to occur, I do not think the models will reach consensus until the last minute. The Euro could be up to its old tricks by holding too much energy back, but that has actually been the pattern all winter. At this point, the non-winter would appear to continue. The NAO is neutral and forecast to go positive. One grain of hope, JB's video yesterday definitely fueled that part of me that wants to believe the models may be missing the cold.

Edit: Somewhat interesting from 72-96 hrs, though its probably cold chasing rain or more like cool chasing rain.

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