JoMo Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Anybody looked at the Euro? I do not have access to it. http://www.instantweathermaps.com And of course the Temps, Precip etc.. can be seen on Wunderground out to 180. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Euro is a frontal passage....leaves the Baja low behind like the UKMet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 s/w still back over baja at 144 with a nice trough digging into the Eastern US...Euro bias in full effect with the baja energy. Trough axis may also be a bit more east on Euro as compared to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 http://www.instantweathermaps.com And of course the Temps, Precip etc.. can be seen on Wunderground out to 180. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Thanks JoMo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 guys..take a rest. We have all busted our ass's the last 2 seasons and need a break this go round...just take it as a sign from ol' mother nature that we need some sleep...winter will be back in a lil bit...just rest till then...we will need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I just looked at the 6Z guidance and the run contineus like 0Z. I like this look and feel our chances of wintry weather will be sound in the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Right now on the GFS 06z run... there is no cold down here. Never makes it far enough south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 It's 16 days out (so fantasy) but this is the setup most would love: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 No confidence past day 4 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 827 AM EST SUN FEB 05 2012 VALID 12Z THU FEB 09 2012 - 12Z SUN FEB 12 2012 PRELIMINARY UPDATE... USED A PROGRESSIVE BLEND FROM THE 00Z/05 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF TOWARD THE 00Z/05 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE SITS BETWEEN THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE UKMET...WHICH PLACES THE SAME TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE OTHER MODELS...WHICH FITS THE PATTERN SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS COLD SEASON. CANADA IS COOLED TREMENDOUSLY VIA THE CROSS-POLAR FLOW INTO THE COUNTRY...BUT THE ARCTIC AIR HAS NO MECHANISM BY WHICH TO INFILTRATE THE UNITED STATES TO ANY APPRECIABLE DEGREE. THE FLOW IS ALSO NOT CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS...SO EXPECT NO SPRAWLING AREAS OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 AFD from FFC today, Steve Nelson did this one A COUPLE NICE ARCTIC HIGHS PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL CONUS...ONE BY WED AND ANOTHER FRI...GFS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE SECOND HIGH. PERHAPS WELL GET A GLANCING BLOW OF MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND. SNELSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Interesting, OP GFS, UK, Euro, all headed to phase 1, UK and GFS look like they are on there way to phase 2. For the record, I am still saying winter is over, it's Sunday, rainy and I am bored. http://www.daculaweather.com/mjo_phase_forecast.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 @153 our low is turning the corner. 850's are marginal in NC...sfc temps aren't really close. Still looks interesting up to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 @165 snow in Central and northern AL maybe some light snow in NW GA. low is cranking off the coast but it's too warm in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 At 96 a new piece of energy is dropping down, that I didn't see on the 0z run, that phases with the southern piece of energy, not quite a strong phase, if we could get a strong phase this would be a huge storm....per the model....I wouldn't worry about to much about ST's, I want to see a monster phaser, even if that means we miss out and the foothills/mountains and place NE get a big one ala March 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 @171 light snow across WNC @174 light snow showers in most of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 @165 snow in Central and northern AL maybe some light snow in NW GA. low is cranking off the coast but it's too warm in NC. temps dont look supportive of snow for bama to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 It should be noted SFC temps aren't all that great...the frz line for 2m temps is way up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 The PNA ridge didn't look quite as good on this run compared to the 0z...but still a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 temps dont look supportive of snow for bama to me 850's are there...sfc it's not. Thickness is borderline..but it's at least a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 At 180 a pretty good phase occurs, obviously way to late, but storm deepens, we need that about 24-36 hours sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The PNA ridge didn't look quite as good on this run compared to the 0z...but still a close call. Something else to keep a note on is there is a 1028 high parking north of Maine in Quebec...if that could park it self in Maine perhaps some CAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 850's are there...sfc it's not. Thickness is borderline..but it's at least a threat. Noticed on the timeline, this would be a Saturday Night/Sunday timeframe for any storm that would come in...maybe that could assist us in the surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 If this happens cold or not...just the GOM low. The GFS gives the Euro a huge beatdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 After this, 200+ hours, the PV retreats north, and it's welcome to spring time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 First run with the GFS showing a wintry mix for parts of the deep south (AL). Patience grasshoppers. Patience. 6 days in a row with the system now. Euro needs to wake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Noticed on the timeline, this would be a Saturday Night/Sunday timeframe for any storm that would come in...maybe that could assist us in the surface temps. Yea but you know how that goes this far out... it probably ends up actually arriving two days later in the middle of the afternoon . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 If this happens cold or not...just the GOM low. The GFS gives the Euro a huge beatdown. That doesn't happen very often....we know how this is going to end. We are in the Euro's wheel house now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 After this, 200+ hours, the PV retreats north, and it's welcome to spring time Then @300 and after it's back to Winter...sigh, the eternal struggle on the models this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 lol huge deep south snowstorm at 348! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 That doesn't happen very often....we know how this is going to end. We are in the Euro's wheel house now... On this one I'll be shocked if the Euro is right. Last night it trended towards the GFS also the GFS has been extremely bullish on a GOM low and consistent with this cold front sweeping through for the most part. Euro has been all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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