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Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II


Marion_NC_WX

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Actually on further review...maybe another Gulf Storm and trough interaction around 336...

Moral of the story behind this run is that we have maybe 2 chances for some late season magic. Seems like it would fit the thoughts of many including Robert on how we pop a storm this winter season.

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The GFS has been on this for a while showing a possibility. Its actually not nearly as warm to start as it was looking earlier (thank you height falls and Monday's wave). But to get the 2 streams to merge will be a feat. However this has been shown to be one extremely tall PNA ridge by both models for atime now, so we'll see. Can't rule out a major event but odds are always against a phased event this far south, but it does happen time to time (Jan 87). If the models hold on to that extremely strong s/w topping the ridge (remember ecmwf had it several runs as well--just different track), and the closed off low in the Baja or Mexico is withing grabbing distance, then there would be a phase and a huge event developing on the East coast. However, what could go wrong is just as big. If the Baja system is too far removed, which is very possible, then we're looking at a dry cold frontal passage. Also, for areas east of the Apps to get snow in this setup is a long shot since the cold has to cross the Apps. Its' much more likely west of the Apps and right to the mtns. However, one good thing this particular time is so far its not that warm aloft since the Baja system is extremely far south to begin with. An ideal situation would be the Baja low develops a nice surface low and backing winds once it reaches the central gulf and forms a wave that travels offshore Savannah up the coast. Odds are against it exactly but its close.

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From Andy Wood at Fox Carolina:

I mean this setup is very close to producing an intensifying storm in the (warm) Gulf of Mexico with quite a bit of cold air to work with (look at the cold in the OH and TN valleys). The problem is that for now, the arctic jet stays just ahead of the system in Texas for the correct timing for both to connect, but if the GFS is too fast in the northern stream (which is common at times - think last Christmas for quite a few model runs leading up to 2-3 days prior to the storm), then this could be very active weekend

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The GFS has been on this for a while showing a possibility. Its actually not nearly as warm to start as it was looking earlier (thank you height falls and Monday's wave). But to get the 2 streams to merge will be a feat. However this has been shown to be one extremely tall PNA ridge by both models for atime now, so we'll see. Can't rule out a major event but odds are always against a phased event this far south, but it does happen time to time (Jan 87). If the models hold on to that extremely strong s/w topping the ridge (remember ecmwf had it several runs as well--just different track), and the closed off low in the Baja or Mexico is withing grabbing distance, then there would be a phase and a huge event developing on the East coast. However, what could go wrong is just as big. If the Baja system is too far removed, which is very possible, then we're looking at a dry cold frontal passage. Also, for areas east of the Apps to get snow in this setup is a long shot since the cold has to cross the Apps. Its' much more likely west of the Apps and right to the mtns. However, one good thing this particular time is so far its not that warm aloft since the Baja system is extremely far south to begin with. An ideal situation would be the Baja low develops a nice surface low and backing winds once it reaches the central gulf and forms a wave that travels offshore Savannah up the coast. Odds are against it exactly but its close.

I can live with this run for now! Fun and games on the horizon! I still feel a 1960 ish approach, albeit not near extreme. Lookinng ay SoCal, there are systems pronged to roll in. Sooner or later a short wave will latch on to a piece of this and the stakes get higher for some winter fun SOMEWHERE in the SE. I hope we can have someone available to PBP the Euro. My interest is most certainly piqued! FINALLY we are looking at cold chances at 100hrs on INSTEAD of 240 out. This winter is THE LITTLE ENGINE THAT COULD! :) :)

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Good analysis Foothills. The UKMet leaves the Baja low behind and it looks like a dry frontal passage. The Canadian looks closer to the GFS with a low on the SE coast, but it doesn't develop the precip as much and it's a little warmer....the Canadian drops a wave in from the northwest (similar to GFS), but it doesn't really phase with the Baja low.

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yes sir, I have said it is not over until March 31 even though most of time it is and sometimes it even goes into April

yep were i live i don't count winter out until May and even then i have seen flurries early in the month. I still feel i have about 3 month left of winter and looks like it may just be getting started!

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yep were i live i don't count winter out until May and even then i have seen flurries early in the month. I still feel i have about 3 month left of winter and looks like it may just be getting started!

well I like to see several snows through middle of march then ready for spring. Heck ready for it now if we not going to get any wintry weather. I feel we will get something though so I have all trucks ready to go if need be

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well I like to see several snows through middle of march then ready for spring. Heck ready for it now if we not going to get any wintry weather. I feel we will get something though so I have all trucks ready to go if need be

Ya well here is to you having to use your trucks this winter in a snow storm! You can come up my way and help clear the snow! They never get the back roads.

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I still see no reason to get excited. Outside of the brief cold shot the 11th - 13th, that's about as close to Winter this run of the GFS gets. After Valentine's Day it appears the warmth will return once again. The flow is so progressive that the moisture and the cold never have an opportunity to meet. The only difference we see now, as apposed to December and January, are the occasional fantasy storms which are normal during the Winter months on the long range GFS. Outside of that, the pattern; although there are subtle changes, remains the same for the Southeast. Our best shot for Winter weather appears to be between now and the 15th. After that I would say our chances will be slim to none as we return to more of what we have seen up until this slight shift in the pattern.

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