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Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II


Marion_NC_WX

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I still think those of us in the upper south stand a better than average chance to see a jmajor winter storm from now through the end of March. Last year about this time, the pattern has flipped and we were done for the year. I beleive that the pattern, while it may not be extreme cold and snowy, will at least be decent snow and some threats, a couple of which will produce for a few. My primary reasoning is that mother nature will balance things out and it appears that the deck is being reshuffled for the last 3-5 weeks of winter (I'd say mid Feb-mid March). Sometimes the pattern makes a sudden abrupt change, and other times there is a short period (1-2 weeks) of moderation/normal before heading to greater departures from normal.

TW

I agree that mother nature will balance things out. The models have been up and down but hell thats to be expected with all the things that are in play. I still think next weekend could end up very interesting for some but i really like the end of this month and the first of March. This would just be an epic torch from start to end if we did not get a least one artic outbreak and one storm. Look at Europe. People are dying over there from freezing to death. Things will change, we just cannot hinge our hope on one model run nor can we go diving from one model run. It will be ok.

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Some really bitter cold, by far the coldest this year on several on the 18z ensemble members. -20 850s make it into Tennessee in at least two members.

One has a phased beast that goes due north out of the gulf with heavy snow from northern Arkansas to Detroit.

We're gonna get an op run soon that makes everyone go nuts. There are just too many positive outcomes from the pv hanging around with the PNA ridge and plenty of energy in the southern stream.

Whether said op run ends up being the valid solution, who knows. But I can certainly see a big storm showing up in op modeling in the next two days. Would be terrible if it ends up a one run and done. But we've been here before, we'll enjoy the excitement and ourn the realization we've been duped again. A deep, but transient cold shot is better than no cold shot.

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While today it doesn't look good in the LR...it seems each run of the GFS for that gulf low keeps coming in a tad colder. If the GFS bias is correct with the placement of the low we might have a storm on our hands :bag:

Gulf lows are a special beast, and this one just won't die. At some point it becomes impossible not to believe.... I'm not sure when that is, this winter being like it is...but it's getting close :) The cold edges closer, the low gets stronger, then weaker, flipping...flopping, but still there and a phase is offering. Europe got cold. My buddy in Colorado is getting slammed. The pattern can't go on forever here, they never do, so it stands to reason things will change here too. Could be soon. Why not? I've lost my bet on the Super Bowl already. May as well go with the storms, lol. I think we get some frozen before the 25th. Said that last month, and still believe it. I just hope it isn't so suppressed that I get sleet and you guys just have to watch, lol. T

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Funny the negativity on this thread. With the models changing daily one run its cold and everyone is excited the next its warm and its done. If 00z goes back to a cold or cooler pattern the same ones that are sticking forks now will be the same changing their tune. People in here flip flop just as much as the models.

+1

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Some really bitter cold, by far the coldest this year on several on the 18z ensemble members. -20 850s make it into Tennessee in at least two members.

One has a phased beast that goes due north out of the gulf with heavy snow from northern Arkansas to Detroit.

We're gonna get an op run soon that makes everyone go nuts. There are just too many positive outcomes from the pv hanging around with the PNA ridge and plenty of energy in the southern stream.

Whether said op run ends up being the valid solution, who knows. But I can certainly see a big storm showing up in op modeling in the next two days. Would be terrible if it ends up a one run and done. But we've been here before, we'll enjoy the excitement and ourn the realization we've been duped again. A deep, but transient cold shot is better than no cold shot.

Agreed. I have a feeling the GFS OP is going to give us a very extreme phased system in the at least one of the next few runs. Half of the 18z GFS ensembles showed a huge chunk of cold air moving into the SE in the 7-8 day timeframe with varying degrees of moisture/placement of LP.

Be cautious though as any extreme one way or the other on the GFS during the pattern change is fool's gold.

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But you posted on post #331 that winter is over all gone? So why keep looking? :whistle:

Because you know it may not be after all :sled:

LOL...I enjoy weather, it's going to be fun watching these models crumble and succomb to the inevitable warmth. The GFS will probably show a day 6-7 monster winter event only to lose it a few runs later crushing everyone's morale :-))))

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I agree that mother nature will balance things out. The models have been up and down but hell thats to be expected with all the things that are in play. I still think next weekend could end up very interesting for some but i really like the end of this month and the first of March. This would just be an epic torch from start to end if we did not get a least one artic outbreak and one storm. Look at Europe. People are dying over there from freezing to death. Things will change, we just cannot hinge our hope on one model run nor can we go diving from one model run. It will be ok.

of course things will change at some point but if it happens after mid march its just going to be a 'cool' spring,

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Oh no, I have become Widre! You know it's bad when Widre doesn't make an appearance...

True. Maybe we need to listen to him. He nailed this winter all the way back last March. Of course, he's had the same winter forecast for the last 10 years. Sad thing is he has been right about 7 out of the 10.

TW

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LOL...I enjoy weather, it's going to be fun watching these models crumble and succomb to the inevitable warmth. The GFS will probably show a day 6-7 monster winter event only to lose it a few runs later crushing everyone's morale :-))))

Well I have said since November we will get at leas one major storm and I am sticking with it. I do not think we will be warm that long but time will tell. I am not going to watch every model run and change. But it is now in February so it doesn't matter to me if it snows or not

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I agree with you, but JB has a great discussion today, no hype just good analysis. He specifically brings up the climate models...thought it was an interesting.

http://www.weatherbe...february-4-2012

I would really like to know what climate model he is using that showed all that warmth across the United States and Europe. But He does drive a good point to how it might get cold in the near future. I hope he is right, but there are so many if's in the Global models these days.

Hopefully he is right :)

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snow for the higher elevations of the southern Apps Monday night. Not much, but a synoptic system and just cold enough, so for this season thats' worth a mention.

the other system to watch is the strong s/w or closed low dropping south from Canada at 120 hours. The European a few days ago had this crossing the Tnn. Valley and Carolinas . Its very powerful to start but the GFS loses it instantly at 120. Meanwhile the flow from Canada is diving south, southwest, as the ridge tips in northwest Canada. So cold is lurking from around I-40 from Ok. to NC....the Gulf could open and back with a system to watch.

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GFS almost totally absorbs the southern stream, and has been inching toward that for awhile now. Only time and a couple more runs will tell though, but if it does, then a major East Coast storm will run up the coast, as a snowmaker in the Deep South/Tn Valley to Apps and eventually East Coast. You can't rule it out until we know that the Baja system hangs well back and detached from the flow. GFS is extremely close.

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Pops a sfc low @ 153 around NC/SC border. A little inland which doesn't allow the cold to penetrate far enough east but this will continue to change. Right now its good to see a 1038 to 1040 high around the Canada/US border which is pushing the cold south and an active pattern. You never know which wave is going to be the key. Like I said earlier, next weekend has the best chance I've seen all winter. Again that's not saying much.

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Atleast a storm, probably the first east coast snow storm this season, but I distrust the GFS on which wave does the trick. There are going to be changes with this, similar to what just happened (and will happen Monday) with the energy hanging back. If the model focuses on the wrong s/w to develop the storm then more areas will experience a big event with the second s/w coming in from Mexico. One of the closest calls to fully phased I've seen since Christmas storm 2 years ago. Definitely a possibilty since its that close, but keep your expectations low in phased events south of DC.

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Atleast a storm, probably the first east coast snow storm this season, but I distrust the GFS on which wave does the trick. There are going to be changes with this, similar to what just happened (and will happen Monday) with the energy hanging back. If the model focuses on the wrong s/w to develop the storm then more areas will experience a big event with the second s/w coming in from Mexico. One of the closest calls to fully phased I've seen since Christmas storm 2 years ago. Definitely a possibilty since its that close, but keep your expectations low in phased events south of DC.

just in time for the new wxsouth site!!! Good work Robert, can't wait

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I do have a feeling that this thread is about to EXPLODE with a few pages soon! We cannot deny that we are looking at POSSIBLE wintry scenarios inching to the 7 day and under mark, instead of the proverbial TEN day out look! We are OH SO CLOSE. I personally am starting with looking at this Monday for possible surprises. Although this is a "token" look, things can go to an extreme in a hurry.

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