packbacker Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The last 3days winter off winter on and now winter off? Got to quit watching every run. Winter is not over until March 31. Always something can pop up Up until today I always thought we would get a good 10 day wintery stretch with a couple of chances. Not anymore, Feb is toast, you maybe right and March may get something for the mountains but everyone else is done. This will probably go down as one of the top 5 worst winters for the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Talk about model consensus, game....set....match.... http://www.daculaweather.com/mjo_phase_forecast.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Talk about model consensus, game....set....match.... http://www.daculawea...se_forecast.php Stick with Robert's forecast and some of the other mets. The Mojo forecast is not reliable past 7 days and most of those forecast still have it moving towards 8 before seven days. If it spirals down to the circle of death, its not the end of the world anyway. We just don't want it to come back out in 3-7 of course. Also, look at the models lately. They don't have a clue, especially the Euro if you ask me. It has been bouncing around more than any of them lately. It was warm a few days ago, then yesterday had the arctic express, not bad last night at 0z and warms up some at 12z today but still did not sound that horrible from some of the other post I read on this forum, but I'll leave that judgement to some of our mets to tell. Bottom line is we have had a horrible and frustrating winter so far but sooner or later it has to give and the cold over in Europe will probably head this way. Most of us can still produce up to mid March or so it in the right pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 By the time cold air is generated in Canada and in the Arctic and gets into a position to finally move into our area, we're talking late February now, if it happens at all. And there's no consistent evidence that it'll happen by then. So we're probably talking March, and by then, it will take a very anomalous cold pattern to provide realisitic opportunities outside the mountains. It's a shame, really, but we're just out of time. Outside of a fluke pattern in March or a rougue storm, it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 My fork has been out for awhile. Not in the cards this year, bring on Tropical Season!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Funny the negativity on this thread. With the models changing daily one run its cold and everyone is excited the next its warm and its done. If 00z goes back to a cold or cooler pattern the same ones that are sticking forks now will be the same changing their tune. People in here flip flop just as much as the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Would be nice to hear the ensembles for the euro generally disagree with the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Wow guys. At least wait for the 00z suite tonight before you jump. Any time we're looking for a storm on the med-LR in Feb it's pretty late in the game, the odds are obviously against us and we should all know that by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Would be nice to hear the ensembles for the euro generally disagree with the op. I would bet the ensembles agree because it's warm. The Op Euro is probably the cold outlier of the entire ensemble suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 pretty telling that despite a monster -NAO look on the models we still can't get any serious cold down this way. It's just not our year, and I wouldn't hold my breath for a '93 repeat. It ain't called the "super storm" or the "storm of the century" for no reason. Those things just don't happen all that often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECUPiratewx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 LOL....regardless of how this winter has been thus far, I never cease to be amazed how "good" people have been at "taking this run with a grain of salt" when it's pro-cold/storminess, yet when it shows a torch it's a lock that the winter is over. If "just one run" doesn't matter when it's "positive," then "just one run" doesn't matter when it's "negative" either. If the 00z looks bad again tonight and the 12z again tomorrow then you see the trend on top of what this winter has provided thus far (or not provided) and yeah, the writing is probably on the wall. Gets annoying reading "winters over" 10x per run when it doesn't look good then the same people criticize the ones that get excited for one "good" run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 LOL....regardless of how this winter has been thus far, I never cease to be amazed how "good" people have been at "taking this run with a grain of salt" when it's pro-cold/storminess, yet when it shows a torch it's a lock that the winter is over. If "just one run" doesn't matter when it's "positive," then "just one run" doesn't matter when it's "negative" either. If the 00z looks bad again tonight and the 12z again tomorrow then you see the trend on top of what this winter has provided thus far (or not provided) and yeah, the writing is probably on the wall. Gets annoying reading "winters over" 10x per run when it doesn't look good then the same people criticize the ones that get excited for one "good" run. +1!! Couldn't agree more with this post. I've noticed this as well this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 LOL....regardless of how this winter has been thus far, I never cease to be amazed how "good" people have been at "taking this run with a grain of salt" when it's pro-cold/storminess, yet when it shows a torch it's a lock that the winter is over. If "just one run" doesn't matter when it's "positive," then "just one run" doesn't matter when it's "negative" either. If the 00z looks bad again tonight and the 12z again tomorrow then you see the trend on top of what this winter has provided thus far (or not provided) and yeah, the writing is probably on the wall. Gets annoying reading "winters over" 10x per run when it doesn't look good then the same people criticize the ones that get excited for one "good" run. The only problem is it's not just one run that's negative. 90% of them are and it's only once and a while we get a good run. It seems perfectly logical to me but to each their own. As the other poster in here said don't hold your breath for a superstorm. It's probably a 1 in 100 shot in a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 My fork has been out for awhile. Not in the cards this year, bring on Tropical Season!! This year "Shear Season" will be a more appropiate term: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 uhoh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The only problem is it's not just one run that's negative. 90% of them are and it's only once and a while we get a good run. It seems perfectly logical to me but to each their own. As the other poster in here said don't hold your breath for a superstorm. It's probably a 1 in 100 shot in a good pattern. This. It's that there has been zero consistency with the evolution of any sort of favorable pattern for the entire Winter. There have been sporadic runs, even a few back-to-back runs depicting cold in the 10 day timeframe several times this Winter, only to revert back to a warmer look, which has ended up verifying all Winter long. You should not take one run of a model as a lock, but you should be able to recognize that run in the context of an entire season. If we see several runs in a row where the cold shows up and consistently moves closer in time, then that would carry a lot of weight, though it would be an abnormality this Winter. But we haven't, have we? And like I said before, here's the problem: I don't see a lot of big cold up in Canada. By the time that were to either be generated or be transported from the other side of the globe and into a position that can be delivered into the SE, we're into the mid-end of Feb at the earliest. By then, we're moving into March, and the time of year where we'll need some pretty stout cold to be able to help us. So, no, it's not negativity or living and dying with one run of a model. It's the context of a solution against the background of this abysmal, warm pattern-repeating Winter. I'd call that reality more than negativity. If we start to see severe cold building in Canada and less energy in the Pacific jet (which has been the core problem all Winter), then maybe we'll have a short window where things can come together. But we're running out of time, and I haven't seen any sustained evidence of those things happening. Anybody else see any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Not that anyone wants to fill the long range thread with actual long range observations, but 18z looks pretty good out to 180. After that I am not really going to care. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Leave it to the 18z goofus to try and throw us a bone next weekend......sheesh is it because it's political season??? I've never seen so much back and forth with the models..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Not that anyone wants to fill the long range thread with actual long range observations, but 18z looks pretty good out to 180. After that I am not really going to care. haha Yeah, not bad, 1030 high over the lakes, southern stream trying to phase with northern stream...a cleaner phase could have shown a big storm at day 6-7. To bad it's not happening, watching this model is like playing poker with play money, just can't get excited about a good hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 While today it doesn't look good in the LR...it seems each run of the GFS for that gulf low keeps coming in a tad colder. If the GFS bias is correct with the placement of the low we might have a storm on our hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Afternoon long term from GSP: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 235 PM EST SATURDAY...INCONSISTENCY AND LOW CONFIDENCE ARE THE BUZZWORDS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A COUPLE OF NRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA WED AND THU. A BROAD TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN US FRI AS A DEEP LOW DROPS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO OPEN UP THE LOW AND SPREAD ITS ENERGY EWD SAT WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK AND BRINGS NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY THRU THE ERN TROF. AT THE SFC...THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE WED/WED NITE TIME FRAME WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. HAVE HELD POP AT SLIGHT CHC AS THERE IS STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES. TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS WED NITE. THE ECMWF HAD SHOWN ANOTHER CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM FOR THU WITH THE SECOND SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...IT NOW DEVELOPS A MILLER-A GULF LOW AND TRACKS IT UP THE SERN COAST ON THU AND BRINGS A WEAK DRY CLIPPER FOR FRI. THE GFS HAS THE LOW BUT TAKES IT ACROSS FL THU NITE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FRI AS A WEAK CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE NW. EITHER WAY...THE BEST MOISTURE AND PRECIP IS SOUTH OF OUR AREA SO WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW. THE ECMWF HAS DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR SAT. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER MILLER-A GULF LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. IT DOES BRING PRECIP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON ELY FLOW. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FCST DRY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED DROP TO NEAR NORMAL BY SAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Who cares that map has changed as much as the models in the last 2 weeks Lol my exact thought. I take those CPC maps with a large chunk of salt the size of a basketball, especially when the models are acting the way they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I gave up on this winter at the end of January. I will say that the storm next weekend has peaked my interest. Right now it doesn't look like anything but the models continue to come in colder each run. We're still not there but really it's the best thing we've seen this winter, I know that's not saying much. I will say I've seen stranger things happen. It's atleast worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Lol my exact thought. I take those CPC maps with a large chunk of salt the size of a basketball, especially when the models are acting the way they are. Those have been the most accurate. They forecasted the onslaught of warmth since beginning of winter. CPC's projections have been VERY conservative in comparison with the "forecasted" non-transitory cold that the global models keep featuring. I have been seeing a trend and the heights have been increasing for portions for the Southeast over the past few days at the 500mb level with the CPC maps. Every day I look at the GFS's ensembles, one more member shows a warm scenario in the long range. I'm just saying, I would not put that much stock into prolonged cold(not transitory) in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Those have been the most accurate. They forecasted the onslaught of warmth since beginning of winter. CPC's projections have been VERY conservative in comparison with the "forecasted" non-transitory cold that the global models keep featuring. I have been seeing a trend and the heights have been increasing for portions for the Southeast over the past few days at the 500mb level with the CPC maps. Every day I look at the GFS's ensembles, one more member shows a warm scenario in the long range. I'm just saying, I would not put that much stock into prolonged cold(not transitory) in the long range. I agree with you, but JB has a great discussion today, no hype just good analysis. He specifically brings up the climate models...thought it was an interesting. http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary--february-4-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I agree with you, but JB has a great discussion today, no hype just good analysis. He specifically brings up the climate models...thought it was an interesting. http://www.weatherbe...february-4-2012 Thanks for sharing the link. Brings up a good point about the models missing on the cold in Europe from two weeks out. This is the JB I like to watch, no hype but a good discussion of possibilities. Also, unrelated to packerbacker's post, the pattern does not look bad for a time. The models, which have certainly had their issues past five days, most certainly will not have the details right at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I agree with you, but JB has a great discussion today, no hype just good analysis. He specifically brings up the climate models...thought it was an interesting. http://www.weatherbe...february-4-2012 Yep, definitely worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Hey Robert has a great write up on what he is thinking about may come out of this pattern change on his website at wxsouth.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I still think those of us in the upper south stand a better than average chance to see a jmajor winter storm from now through the end of March. Last year about this time, the pattern has flipped and we were done for the year. I beleive that the pattern, while it may not be extreme cold and snowy, will at least be decent snow and some threats, a couple of which will produce for a few. My primary reasoning is that mother nature will balance things out and it appears that the deck is being reshuffled for the last 3-5 weeks of winter (I'd say mid Feb-mid March). Sometimes the pattern makes a sudden abrupt change, and other times there is a short period (1-2 weeks) of moderation/normal before heading to greater departures from normal. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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