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Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II


Marion_NC_WX

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The last 3days winter off winter on and now winter off? Got to quit watching every run. Winter is not over until March 31. Always something can pop up

Up until today I always thought we would get a good 10 day wintery stretch with a couple of chances. Not anymore, Feb is toast, you maybe right and March may get something for the mountains but everyone else is done. This will probably go down as one of the top 5 worst winters for the east.

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Talk about model consensus, game....set....match....

http://www.daculawea...se_forecast.php

Stick with Robert's forecast and some of the other mets. The Mojo forecast is not reliable past 7 days and most of those forecast still have it moving towards 8 before seven days. If it spirals down to the circle of death, its not the end of the world anyway. We just don't want it to come back out in 3-7 of course.

Also, look at the models lately. They don't have a clue, especially the Euro if you ask me. It has been bouncing around more than any of them lately. It was warm a few days ago, then yesterday had the arctic express, not bad last night at 0z and warms up some at 12z today but still did not sound that horrible from some of the other post I read on this forum, but I'll leave that judgement to some of our mets to tell.

Bottom line is we have had a horrible and frustrating winter so far but sooner or later it has to give and the cold over in Europe will probably head this way. Most of us can still produce up to mid March or so it in the right pattern.

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By the time cold air is generated in Canada and in the Arctic and gets into a position to finally move into our area, we're talking late February now, if it happens at all. And there's no consistent evidence that it'll happen by then. So we're probably talking March, and by then, it will take a very anomalous cold pattern to provide realisitic opportunities outside the mountains. It's a shame, really, but we're just out of time. Outside of a fluke pattern in March or a rougue storm, it's over.

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Funny the negativity on this thread. With the models changing daily one run its cold and everyone is excited the next its warm and its done. If 00z goes back to a cold or cooler pattern the same ones that are sticking forks now will be the same changing their tune. People in here flip flop just as much as the models.

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Wow guys. At least wait for the 00z suite tonight before you jump. Any time we're looking for a storm on the med-LR in Feb it's pretty late in the game, the odds are obviously against us and we should all know that by now.

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pretty telling that despite a monster -NAO look on the models we still can't get any serious cold down this way. It's just not our year, and I wouldn't hold my breath for a '93 repeat. It ain't called the "super storm" or the "storm of the century" for no reason. Those things just don't happen all that often.

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LOL....regardless of how this winter has been thus far, I never cease to be amazed how "good" people have been at "taking this run with a grain of salt" when it's pro-cold/storminess, yet when it shows a torch it's a lock that the winter is over.

If "just one run" doesn't matter when it's "positive," then "just one run" doesn't matter when it's "negative" either. If the 00z looks bad again tonight and the 12z again tomorrow then you see the trend on top of what this winter has provided thus far (or not provided) and yeah, the writing is probably on the wall. Gets annoying reading "winters over" 10x per run when it doesn't look good then the same people criticize the ones that get excited for one "good" run.

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LOL....regardless of how this winter has been thus far, I never cease to be amazed how "good" people have been at "taking this run with a grain of salt" when it's pro-cold/storminess, yet when it shows a torch it's a lock that the winter is over.

If "just one run" doesn't matter when it's "positive," then "just one run" doesn't matter when it's "negative" either. If the 00z looks bad again tonight and the 12z again tomorrow then you see the trend on top of what this winter has provided thus far (or not provided) and yeah, the writing is probably on the wall. Gets annoying reading "winters over" 10x per run when it doesn't look good then the same people criticize the ones that get excited for one "good" run.

+1!! Couldn't agree more with this post. I've noticed this as well this winter.

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LOL....regardless of how this winter has been thus far, I never cease to be amazed how "good" people have been at "taking this run with a grain of salt" when it's pro-cold/storminess, yet when it shows a torch it's a lock that the winter is over.

If "just one run" doesn't matter when it's "positive," then "just one run" doesn't matter when it's "negative" either. If the 00z looks bad again tonight and the 12z again tomorrow then you see the trend on top of what this winter has provided thus far (or not provided) and yeah, the writing is probably on the wall. Gets annoying reading "winters over" 10x per run when it doesn't look good then the same people criticize the ones that get excited for one "good" run.

The only problem is it's not just one run that's negative. 90% of them are and it's only once and a while we get a good run. It seems perfectly logical to me but to each their own. As the other poster in here said don't hold your breath for a superstorm. It's probably a 1 in 100 shot in a good pattern.

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The only problem is it's not just one run that's negative. 90% of them are and it's only once and a while we get a good run. It seems perfectly logical to me but to each their own. As the other poster in here said don't hold your breath for a superstorm. It's probably a 1 in 100 shot in a good pattern.

This. It's that there has been zero consistency with the evolution of any sort of favorable pattern for the entire Winter. There have been sporadic runs, even a few back-to-back runs depicting cold in the 10 day timeframe several times this Winter, only to revert back to a warmer look, which has ended up verifying all Winter long.

You should not take one run of a model as a lock, but you should be able to recognize that run in the context of an entire season. If we see several runs in a row where the cold shows up and consistently moves closer in time, then that would carry a lot of weight, though it would be an abnormality this Winter. But we haven't, have we?

And like I said before, here's the problem: I don't see a lot of big cold up in Canada. By the time that were to either be generated or be transported from the other side of the globe and into a position that can be delivered into the SE, we're into the mid-end of Feb at the earliest. By then, we're moving into March, and the time of year where we'll need some pretty stout cold to be able to help us.

So, no, it's not negativity or living and dying with one run of a model. It's the context of a solution against the background of this abysmal, warm pattern-repeating Winter. I'd call that reality more than negativity. If we start to see severe cold building in Canada and less energy in the Pacific jet (which has been the core problem all Winter), then maybe we'll have a short window where things can come together. But we're running out of time, and I haven't seen any sustained evidence of those things happening. Anybody else see any?

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Not that anyone wants to fill the long range thread with actual long range observations, but 18z looks pretty good out to 180. After that I am not really going to care. haha

Yeah, not bad, 1030 high over the lakes, southern stream trying to phase with northern stream...a cleaner phase could have shown a big storm at day 6-7. To bad it's not happening, watching this model is like playing poker with play money, just can't get excited about a good hand.

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Afternoon long term from GSP:

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 235 PM EST SATURDAY...INCONSISTENCY AND LOW CONFIDENCE ARE THE

BUZZWORDS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE

CONUS WITH A COUPLE OF NRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER OR NEAR

THE AREA WED AND THU. A BROAD TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN US FRI AS A

DEEP LOW DROPS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO OPEN UP

THE LOW AND SPREAD ITS ENERGY EWD SAT WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK

AND BRINGS NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY THRU THE ERN TROF. AT THE

SFC...THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL

AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE WED/WED NITE TIME FRAME WITH THE

FIRST SHORT WAVE. HAVE HELD POP AT SLIGHT CHC AS THERE IS STILL

TIMING DIFFERENCES. TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW ACROSS

PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS WED NITE. THE ECMWF HAD SHOWN ANOTHER

CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM FOR THU WITH THE SECOND SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...IT

NOW DEVELOPS A MILLER-A GULF LOW AND TRACKS IT UP THE SERN COAST ON

THU AND BRINGS A WEAK DRY CLIPPER FOR FRI. THE GFS HAS THE LOW BUT

TAKES IT ACROSS FL THU NITE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FRI AS A WEAK

CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE NW. EITHER WAY...THE BEST MOISTURE AND PRECIP

IS SOUTH OF OUR AREA SO WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW. THE ECMWF

HAS DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR SAT. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER

MILLER-A GULF LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. IT DOES BRING PRECIP IN

DURING THE AFTERNOON ON ELY FLOW. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FCST DRY DUE

TO THE UNCERTAINTY. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END

OF THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED DROP TO NEAR NORMAL BY SAT.

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Who cares that map has changed as much as the models in the last 2 weeks

Lol my exact thought. I take those CPC maps with a large chunk of salt the size of a basketball, especially when the models are acting the way they are.

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I gave up on this winter at the end of January. I will say that the storm next weekend has peaked my interest. Right now it doesn't look like anything but the models continue to come in colder each run. We're still not there but really it's the best thing we've seen this winter, I know that's not saying much. I will say I've seen stranger things happen. It's atleast worth keeping an eye on.

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Lol my exact thought. I take those CPC maps with a large chunk of salt the size of a basketball, especially when the models are acting the way they are.

Those have been the most accurate. They forecasted the onslaught of warmth since beginning of winter. CPC's projections have been VERY conservative in comparison with the "forecasted" non-transitory cold that the global models keep featuring. I have been seeing a trend and the heights have been increasing for portions for the Southeast over the past few days at the 500mb level with the CPC maps. Every day I look at the GFS's ensembles, one more member shows a warm scenario in the long range. I'm just saying, I would not put that much stock into prolonged cold(not transitory) in the long range.

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Those have been the most accurate. They forecasted the onslaught of warmth since beginning of winter. CPC's projections have been VERY conservative in comparison with the "forecasted" non-transitory cold that the global models keep featuring. I have been seeing a trend and the heights have been increasing for portions for the Southeast over the past few days at the 500mb level with the CPC maps. Every day I look at the GFS's ensembles, one more member shows a warm scenario in the long range. I'm just saying, I would not put that much stock into prolonged cold(not transitory) in the long range.

I agree with you, but JB has a great discussion today, no hype just good analysis. He specifically brings up the climate models...thought it was an interesting.

http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary--february-4-2012

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I agree with you, but JB has a great discussion today, no hype just good analysis. He specifically brings up the climate models...thought it was an interesting.

http://www.weatherbe...february-4-2012

Thanks for sharing the link. Brings up a good point about the models missing on the cold in Europe from two weeks out. This is the JB I like to watch, no hype but a good discussion of possibilities. Also, unrelated to packerbacker's post, the pattern does not look bad for a time. The models, which have certainly had their issues past five days, most certainly will not have the details right at this point.

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I still think those of us in the upper south stand a better than average chance to see a jmajor winter storm from now through the end of March. Last year about this time, the pattern has flipped and we were done for the year. I beleive that the pattern, while it may not be extreme cold and snowy, will at least be decent snow and some threats, a couple of which will produce for a few. My primary reasoning is that mother nature will balance things out and it appears that the deck is being reshuffled for the last 3-5 weeks of winter (I'd say mid Feb-mid March). Sometimes the pattern makes a sudden abrupt change, and other times there is a short period (1-2 weeks) of moderation/normal before heading to greater departures from normal.

TW

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