Met1985 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The end of the run looks decent but not as impressive as last night run but, it is just one run and we no things will change in about 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Last nights long term from GSP .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 240 AM EST SATURDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EXT RANGE FCST. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS FLIPPED FROM IT/S PREVIOUS RUN AGAIN AND NOW RESEMBLES THE 00Z GFS AS FAR AS THE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WED INTO THU. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEST SUGGESTION THAT A WEAK SFC LOW MAY FORM OFF THE CAROLINAS LATE WED...BUT THE MASS FIELDS DONT SUPPORT MORE THAN THE GOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. THERE REMAINS VARYING IDEAS BTW THE OP MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE CAD AND LLVL THICKNESS VALUES WED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SFC BASED COLD AIR FOR SOME MEASURE OF ICY/WINTRY PRECIP...IF IN FACT THE ATL MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION IS STRONG ENOUGH...WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW END. IN ANY SENSE...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BUMP POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGHOUT THE EXT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH MAXES MOST LIKELY AROUND NORMAL ON TUE/WED AS THE CP AIR MASS MIXES IN. HOWEVER...THU/FRI/S TEMPS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH EVENTUALLY PANS OUT. THE GFS IS NOW AN OUTLIER WITH IT/S LATE PERIOD COASTAL LOW...WHILE THE LATEST CMC AND ECMWF ARE BOTH BUILDING IN FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. SO TEMPS WERE LEFT AS IS...WHICH IS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Last nights long term from GSP .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 240 AM EST SATURDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EXT RANGE FCST. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS FLIPPED FROM IT/S PREVIOUS RUN AGAIN AND NOW RESEMBLES THE 00Z GFS AS FAR AS THE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WED INTO THU. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEST SUGGESTION THAT A WEAK SFC LOW MAY FORM OFF THE CAROLINAS LATE WED...BUT THE MASS FIELDS DONT SUPPORT MORE THAN THE GOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. THERE REMAINS VARYING IDEAS BTW THE OP MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE CAD AND LLVL THICKNESS VALUES WED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SFC BASED COLD AIR FOR SOME MEASURE OF ICY/WINTRY PRECIP...IF IN FACT THE ATL MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION IS STRONG ENOUGH...WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW END. IN ANY SENSE...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BUMP POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGHOUT THE EXT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH MAXES MOST LIKELY AROUND NORMAL ON TUE/WED AS THE CP AIR MASS MIXES IN. HOWEVER...THU/FRI/S TEMPS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH EVENTUALLY PANS OUT. THE GFS IS NOW AN OUTLIER WITH IT/S LATE PERIOD COASTAL LOW...WHILE THE LATEST CMC AND ECMWF ARE BOTH BUILDING IN FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. SO TEMPS WERE LEFT AS IS...WHICH IS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY. From the Nashville NWS... THE TREND FOR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS COLDER WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING -12 DEG C 850 TEMPS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR APPEARS TO LAST A COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN BACK TO NORMAL OR ABOVE...TYPICAL PATTERN FOR THIS WINTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Here's our chance at winter with massive ash clouds! http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/alaskan-volcano-could-erupt-di-1/61169?partner=accuweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Here's our chance at winter with massive ash clouds! http://www.accuweath...ner=accuweather Just read that didnt really see anything about any climate change, did I miss something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The latest from Robert. He sees potential for fun times on down the road if the pattern develops into a favorable one: http://wxsouth.com/?p=102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Here's our chance at winter with massive ash clouds! http://www.accuweath...ner=accuweather I've been watching Katla since I found out about the camera last year I figure that is my best chance to see a mini ice age. But so far....nothing, nada, zilch. Kind of like winter, lol. At least the low that came to stay is still around....always just out of reach. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 In all honesty, we can probably play the "models are in flux" game for a few more days, but if a TRUE pattern change isn't showing by the 10th, give or take a day or two...............then most will run out of time. That being said, I still think that's what is happening here and it's unlikely we get out of this winter without an opportunity or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 In looking at the 12z GFS a little more, I don't think it looks all that bad. Take hr 204 for instance. Nice blocking developing in Greenland and a powerhouse of a low in the alleutians that keeps the vortex over the alleutians for several days.. That usually teleconnects very well with west coast ridging. I don't really see why there shouldn't be more ridging there IF that feature is correct. Yes, at the surface, it's meh................but in all reality it's pointing in a good direction and not that far off from what the 12z Euro was showing yesterday. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 In looking at the 12z GFS a little more, I don't think it looks all that bad. Take hr 204 for instance. Nice blocking developing in Greenland and a powerhouse of a low in the alleutians that keeps the vortex over the alleutians for several days.. That usually teleconnects very well with west coast ridging. I don't really see why there shouldn't be more ridging there IF that feature is correct. Yes, at the surface, it's meh................but in all reality it's pointing in a good direction and not that far off from what the 12z Euro was showing yesterday. JMO I agree! From hrs 100 on through the run, there are some positive signs/chess pieces on the map. Looking at the NAM for short term, there is CAD showing beginning at hr 69, with weak surface reflection. Something to watch around late Sunday/early Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Just read that didnt really see anything about any climate change, did I miss something? No you didn't miss anything, It takes an ash cloud much bigger and much higher to cause climate change. Think Mount Pinatubo, which was a VEI 6 which is 1000 times greater than what Mount Cleveland is capable of at VEI 3. Mount Saint Helen's was a VEI 5, making Pinatubo 10 times greater than that one, and Mount saint Helen's was 100 times bigger than the best Cleveland could pump out, with no climate change. tl:dr The VEI scale is based on exponential growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 So far the Euro looks like the 00z run last night only warmer out to 108...we'll see where she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Well Burger, the GFS shows the polar vortex getting into a good position around 144 with an undercutting jet and a PNA ridge, let's see if the EURO also shows this. The GFS really isn't that far off at 500 from something major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 So far the Euro looks like the 00z run last night only warmer out to 108...we'll see where she goes. Yeah, the PV is farther NW than the 0z run last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 ridge looks further west to me @120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 This run does have our GOM low next week so that might be something to watch...the bad news is temps aren't there for it. Out to 126 it's just a little too far east OTS as well but that's to be expected in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Next Thursday night, lows around 40, highs upper 50s across all of SE. 60's+ in SC/GA. This is silly to even look at these models and hope anymore. It's fairly evident, we might "cool" down compared to what we have been going through but it's no where close to a wintery pattern, end of Feb, if it turns will be to warm outside of the mountains, with no snow cover in the NE, only hurts us even more. No true arctic air to be tapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Yeah, the PV is farther NW than the 0z run last night. Just guessing by the cold air in Canada this might colder downstream than the 00z run was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Just guessing by the cold air in Canada this might colder downstream than the 00z run was. Ridging out west looks tad farther west, thus the cold is a tad farther west imo. Looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 @144 things could get interesting. Colder air dumping into the eastern sections of the US with a storm brewing in TX...question does the moisture ride up the apps or head more towards a SE track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 No you didn't miss anything, It takes an ash cloud much bigger and much higher to cause climate change. Think Mount Pinatubo, which was a VEI 6 which is 1000 times greater than what Mount Cleveland is capable of at VEI 3. Mount Saint Helen's was a VEI 5, making Pinatubo 10 times greater than that one, and Mount saint Helen's was 100 times bigger than the best Cleveland could pump out, with no climate change. tl:dr The VEI scale is based on exponential growth. LOL Nice post but he did miss something in the original post. Sarcasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Just guessing by the cold air in Canada this might colder downstream than the 00z run was. This is an awful run, the PV shifted west a good bit from 0z run so the cold is central/western Canada and thus the cold is in the central/western part of the US. The SE absolutely torches next week, time for some yard work. Highs in the 60's for bulk of NC and upper 60's close to 70 for SC/GA, next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 @168 cold air pushing south with our energy back in TX going *poof* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Looks nothing like the super run of the 12z yesterday though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 yuck 00z looked colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 LOL Nice post but he did miss something in the original post. Sarcasm. lol, I hear you man. Steve never said anything about climate change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Looks nothing like the super run of the 12z yesterday though I hope you are not surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 And the PV is heading back to AK...Just have to shake your head and laugh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Put a fork in it, winter is over, we are right back to where we were in Dec, big ridge in SE, PV in AK. Just not meant to be this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Put a fork in it, winter is over, we are right back to where we were in Dec, big ridge in SE, PV in AK. Just not meant to be this winter. The last 3days winter off winter on and now winter off? Got to quit watching every run. Winter is not over until March 31. Always something can pop up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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