Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II


Marion_NC_WX

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Last nights long term from GSP

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 240 AM EST SATURDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EXT

RANGE FCST. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS FLIPPED FROM IT/S PREVIOUS RUN

AGAIN AND NOW RESEMBLES THE 00Z GFS AS FAR AS THE COASTAL

CYCLOGENESIS WED INTO THU. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEST SUGGESTION

THAT A WEAK SFC LOW MAY FORM OFF THE CAROLINAS LATE WED...BUT THE

MASS FIELDS DONT SUPPORT MORE THAN THE GOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS

ALREADY IN THE GRIDS.

THERE REMAINS VARYING IDEAS BTW THE OP MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH OF

THE CAD AND LLVL THICKNESS VALUES WED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH

SFC BASED COLD AIR FOR SOME MEASURE OF ICY/WINTRY PRECIP...IF IN

FACT THE ATL MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION IS STRONG ENOUGH...WHICH

RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW END. IN ANY SENSE...THERE IS NOT

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BUMP POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGHOUT THE

EXT PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH MAXES MOST LIKELY AROUND NORMAL ON TUE/WED

AS THE CP AIR MASS MIXES IN. HOWEVER...THU/FRI/S TEMPS WILL GREATLY

DEPEND ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH EVENTUALLY PANS OUT. THE GFS IS

NOW AN OUTLIER WITH IT/S LATE PERIOD COASTAL LOW...WHILE THE LATEST

CMC AND ECMWF ARE BOTH BUILDING IN FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM

THE WEST. SO TEMPS WERE LEFT AS IS...WHICH IS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE

NORMAL EACH DAY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Last nights long term from GSP

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 240 AM EST SATURDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EXT

RANGE FCST. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS FLIPPED FROM IT/S PREVIOUS RUN

AGAIN AND NOW RESEMBLES THE 00Z GFS AS FAR AS THE COASTAL

CYCLOGENESIS WED INTO THU. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEST SUGGESTION

THAT A WEAK SFC LOW MAY FORM OFF THE CAROLINAS LATE WED...BUT THE

MASS FIELDS DONT SUPPORT MORE THAN THE GOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS

ALREADY IN THE GRIDS.

THERE REMAINS VARYING IDEAS BTW THE OP MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH OF

THE CAD AND LLVL THICKNESS VALUES WED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH

SFC BASED COLD AIR FOR SOME MEASURE OF ICY/WINTRY PRECIP...IF IN

FACT THE ATL MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION IS STRONG ENOUGH...WHICH

RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW END. IN ANY SENSE...THERE IS NOT

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BUMP POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGHOUT THE

EXT PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH MAXES MOST LIKELY AROUND NORMAL ON TUE/WED

AS THE CP AIR MASS MIXES IN. HOWEVER...THU/FRI/S TEMPS WILL GREATLY

DEPEND ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH EVENTUALLY PANS OUT. THE GFS IS

NOW AN OUTLIER WITH IT/S LATE PERIOD COASTAL LOW...WHILE THE LATEST

CMC AND ECMWF ARE BOTH BUILDING IN FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM

THE WEST. SO TEMPS WERE LEFT AS IS...WHICH IS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE

NORMAL EACH DAY.

From the Nashville NWS...

THE TREND FOR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS COLDER WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING -12

DEG C 850 TEMPS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR APPEARS

TO LAST A COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN BACK TO NORMAL OR ABOVE...TYPICAL

PATTERN FOR THIS WINTER.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's our chance at winter with massive ash clouds! http://www.accuweath...ner=accuweather

:snowing:

I've been watching Katla since I found out about the camera last year :) I figure that is my best chance to see a mini ice age. But so far....nothing, nada, zilch. Kind of like winter, lol.

At least the low that came to stay is still around....always just out of reach. T

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In all honesty, we can probably play the "models are in flux" game for a few more days, but if a TRUE pattern change isn't showing by the 10th, give or take a day or two...............then most will run out of time.

That being said, I still think that's what is happening here and it's unlikely we get out of this winter without an opportunity or two.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In looking at the 12z GFS a little more, I don't think it looks all that bad. Take hr 204 for instance. Nice blocking developing in Greenland and a powerhouse of a low in the alleutians that keeps the vortex over the alleutians for several days.. That usually teleconnects very well with west coast ridging. I don't really see why there shouldn't be more ridging there IF that feature is correct.

Yes, at the surface, it's meh................but in all reality it's pointing in a good direction and not that far off from what the 12z Euro was showing yesterday. JMO

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In looking at the 12z GFS a little more, I don't think it looks all that bad. Take hr 204 for instance. Nice blocking developing in Greenland and a powerhouse of a low in the alleutians that keeps the vortex over the alleutians for several days.. That usually teleconnects very well with west coast ridging. I don't really see why there shouldn't be more ridging there IF that feature is correct.

Yes, at the surface, it's meh................but in all reality it's pointing in a good direction and not that far off from what the 12z Euro was showing yesterday. JMO

I agree! From hrs 100 on through the run, there are some positive signs/chess pieces on the map. Looking at the NAM for short term, there is CAD showing beginning at hr 69, with weak surface reflection. Something to watch around late Sunday/early Mon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just read that didnt really see anything about any climate change, did I miss something?

No you didn't miss anything, It takes an ash cloud much bigger and much higher to cause climate change. Think Mount Pinatubo, which was a VEI 6 which is 1000 times greater than what Mount Cleveland is capable of at VEI 3. Mount Saint Helen's was a VEI 5, making Pinatubo 10 times greater than that one, and Mount saint Helen's was 100 times bigger than the best Cleveland could pump out, with no climate change.

tl:dr

The VEI scale is based on exponential growth.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Next Thursday night, lows around 40, highs upper 50s across all of SE. 60's+ in SC/GA. This is silly to even look at these models and hope anymore. It's fairly evident, we might "cool" down compared to what we have been going through but it's no where close to a wintery pattern, end of Feb, if it turns will be to warm outside of the mountains, with no snow cover in the NE, only hurts us even more. No true arctic air to be tapped.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No you didn't miss anything, It takes an ash cloud much bigger and much higher to cause climate change. Think Mount Pinatubo, which was a VEI 6 which is 1000 times greater than what Mount Cleveland is capable of at VEI 3. Mount Saint Helen's was a VEI 5, making Pinatubo 10 times greater than that one, and Mount saint Helen's was 100 times bigger than the best Cleveland could pump out, with no climate change.

tl:dr

The VEI scale is based on exponential growth.

LOL Nice post but he did miss something in the original post. Sarcasm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just guessing by the cold air in Canada this might colder downstream than the 00z run was.

This is an awful run, the PV shifted west a good bit from 0z run so the cold is central/western Canada and thus the cold is in the central/western part of the US. The SE absolutely torches next week, time for some yard work. Highs in the 60's for bulk of NC and upper 60's close to 70 for SC/GA, next Friday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...