Marion_NC_WX Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 Should be getting a late night house call from the Doc anytime now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Whats the good word? I cannot get the Euro to pull up on my Computer. Technical difficulties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Whats the good word? I cannot get the Euro to pull up on my Computer. Technical difficulties. I'm out to 96 hours and there is a 1036 high dropping down from the central states and a huge PV in Northeastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I'm out to 96 hours and there is a 1036 high dropping down from the central states and a huge PV in Northeastern Canada. Well that's a start! Thanks Marietta! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Well that's a start! Thanks Marietta! Out to 120, the Arctic dumped it's severe cold into Eastern Canada and it's headed SE but it looks to skim the North Northeast. The High pressure system is cold but not really that cold in the central states. My maps are not of great quality but I don't think we have a Gom Low unless it's pertty weak. Someone with precip maps will have to tell you for sure. But here is the 850's at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Seems like so far this has the same look at the 120 hour as the GFS had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 144: West coast ridging is nearly to the north pole. But the PV is not moving much and the High pressure and cold temps are fading in the US. Not much of a push of cold form Canada but there is quite a decent cold pool up there. If I had to say one way or the other it looks like not much at this time but the later frames may tell a different story. 168: Man things look to be getting amped up and a nice slug of cold looks poised to drop into the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I don't know if this going to be directed at us or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Ya looks like we could see that slug of cold air drop right down from Canada. From what i can see this looks very similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 192 does indeed show that cold air heading due south toward our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I hate to even be talking about the Euro with such limited info so please take this with some salt. But I think there is a system in Texas at 168 but it could be part of the cutoff in the Baja. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 192 does indeed show that cold air heading due south toward our region. Nice. Also just following along with the GFS, the Euro seems to drop down the cold sooner than the GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I wish Burger or someone else with paid Euro maps were here. Look at the 700mb RH on this map at 168. It's the OP so another bit of salt considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I wish Burger or someone else with paid Euro maps were here. Look at the 700mb RH on this map at 168. It's the OP so another bit of salt considered. Ya i agree. If this system is coming out and the cold air dives in then this could be very interesting but still aways out but nice to see changes in under 200 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I have it on Accu,should be updated in about 10 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Ya i agree. If this system is coming out and the cold air dives in then this could be very interesting but still aways out but nice to see changes in under 200 hours. All best guesses here but I think the cutoff is falling apart and moving east and I think it's just a tad too slow to meet the cold.I'll say again though I don't have enough info to really say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Ya and i have no darn maps to look at. Lol. The one good thing i do notice is the cold air in place dropping down. If we bet blocking like the GFS has shown and the Euro follows then things will liven up around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 By 240 the cold is sliding off the coast and the serious cold in near Maine. The Pacific has an endless stream of cutoffs/ULL's is seems that keep knocking down the ridge and flattening things out. If we had some blocking to lock in the cold I'd be a lot happier. Overall compared to the 12Z, the cold/trof is not as deep and the PV is shifted Northeast ish. at 240 Greenland is as cold as ever this season with no blocking NAO to be found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 By 240 the cold is sliding off the coast and the serious cold in near Maine. The Pacific has an endless stream of cutoffs/ULL's is seems that keep knocking down the ridge and flattening things out. If we had some blocking to lock in the cold I'd be a lot happier. Overall compared to the 12Z, the cold/trof is not as deep and the PV is shifted Northeast ish. can't be upset with the last 24 hours worth of runs....HUGE improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 By 240 the cold is sliding off the coast and the serious cold in near Maine. The Pacific has an endless stream of cutoffs/ULL's is seems that keep knocking down the ridge and flattening things out. If we had some blocking to lock in the cold I'd be a lot happier. We may have blocking on the Euro by that time frame Still not bad of a run from what i can gather, Headed in the right direction at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 can't be upset with the last 24 hours worth of runs....HUGE improvement Ya i agree Huge improvement on the models. I think HM was talking about the models having big swings from one run to another in the main forum while the pattern change is occuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 We may have blocking on the Euro by that time frame Still not bad of a run from what i can gather, Headed in the right direction at least. Maybe but not on this OP run. I edited my last post to reflect it. Greenland is cold with no blocking it seems from my amateur PoV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Maybe but not on this OP run. I edited my last post to reflect it. Greenland is cold with no blocking it seems from my amateur PoV. Ya just the story this whole winter with the GFS and the Euro. Each has a completly different solution. Euro has no blocking and the GFS has one hell of a block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Dr No strikes again. and so it goes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Dr No strikes again. and so it goes.... Definite not near the cold the 12z showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It's almost as if the GFS and Euro exchanged looks from their 12z runs: Old: New: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The 0z Euro still shows plenty of potential w/ the pattern and it is in the ten day window. The various features will change since it is so far out, but the pattern looks interesting. Still not bad. But we've seen this carrot before. Again, the NAO will have to go negative and stay there before I'll feel good about things. Before, I had been looking for the pattern to flip. It still could, but I'm growing less convinced that the pattern will flip to the point that it can benefit everyone. In three weeks, climo severely limits many. Now, I'm looking for one good storm. The pattern itself looks like it could produce but take everything w/ a grain of salt unless w/in five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It's almost as if the GFS and Euro exchanged looks from their 12z runs: Old: New: The GFS, w/ its four pockets of cold air, looks more reasonable at 0z FWIW. But this is going to change every run until it gets closer. Edit: So does the Euro. That looks like the pattern for that time frame. The heights in the North Atlantic vary slightly in placement, but that is having big impacts on the weather in the eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Looks like at hour 54 the mountains could see some light wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Also looks like something trying to break out in the mountains around hour 102. still looks like a pretty good shot of cold air coming down next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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