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Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II


Marion_NC_WX

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  On 2/6/2012 at 6:32 PM, WeatherNC said:

Too warm for most, good run for the mountains, western TN, maybe the foothills as the low departs, but look at the 850 map, flow would be out of the south-southwest @ 132 hr with a potential 850 close off near the OH Valley. Canadian kind of stands alone atm, 12z UKMET looks similar to the GFS, weak perturbation crossing the FL peninsula before starting to deepen somewhere between NC and Bermuda, closer to Bermuda. Another thing, I would like to see at-least a couple of the GFS individual members showing a hit at this range, and over the past 3-4 runs not even 1 or 2 have. Sure a few looked interesting, but the overwhelming agreement was too little too late, amplified frontal passage with a weak wave well to the south. Even if we do get a storm, more interaction is going to be needed between the streams to trend it colder, because as it stands now, looking too warm for most outside of elevation.

Its not done loading just yet, but already p001 shows a hit.... 999 SLP just off ILM... and the other 3 that I have loaded are pretty close to hits. The mean looks promising as well.

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The Euro does hold in a CAD high and breaks out precip in north GA which would likely be some sort of frozen....but again, with all these model flip-flops we cannot trust anything right now- some are talking about this storm on the CMC which the Euro does not even have a hint of. We just have to realize that any forecast beyond day 3 right now is pretty close to impossible. That is why I am not really following stuff that closely right now, hanging on every model run will accomplish little except give you whiplash.

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  On 2/6/2012 at 6:39 PM, Brick Tamland said:

Like others have said, Euro has shown something interesting before, then takes it away, only to show up again later on down the road a couple days before the event. That's what happened in the Christmas 2010 snow, and it was an event depending on phasing as well.

That was kind of different, several runs were showing an Epic snowstorm in the 6-7 day range, plus there was other model agreement. I don't see any indication of a sig or even insignificant storm with p-type issues in the next 5 or 6 days, sure it could magically appear but the odds are heavily against. As I stated, you would like to see at-least a couple of individual members show something of consequence, which would be an indication of a certain amount of variability in the system.

Positives, taking the 12z op Euro at its word, there is a period of about 72 hrs, between 126 and 198, where it is cold enough for SN, now we just need some moisture to work with.

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  On 2/6/2012 at 6:48 PM, Cold Rain said:

DT said it's a lot better since the upgrade. But I don't know when it was upgraded and haven't seen any verification scores since the upgrade.

Current day 6 verification scores for the 0z runs @ H5, NH... EC followed by UKMET, nothing new here. FNG is the NOGAPS

cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX_00Z.png

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  On 2/6/2012 at 6:38 PM, burgertime said:

Interesting I haven't kept track of the Ensemble members. That certainly is not good news. By the way I didn't think the CMC looked great temp wise, just posting that there in case some were interested. I always want to see those dark blues on the 850 maps to get excited by the CMC.

If you're not keeping track of the ensemble members, you're missing half the forecasting battle.

The ensemble mean smooths things out and can give you an idea on temps and heights.

Look at the individual members to see what kind of agreement there is. If the majority of the ensembles are showing a similar evolution, that means that even with varying data, the models are all coming to a similar solution, which means its a fairly likely outcome.

I was excited this weekend, because 3-4 of the members were bringing the low up through the florida and up the east coast.

But those have disappeared.

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  On 2/6/2012 at 7:16 PM, jmundie said:

If you're not keeping track of the ensemble members, you're missing half the forecasting battle.

The ensemble mean smooths things out and can give you an idea on temps and heights.

Look at the individual members to see what kind of agreement there is. If the majority of the ensembles are showing a similar evolution, that means that even with varying data, the models are all coming to a similar solution, which means its a fairly likely outcome.

I was excited this weekend, because 3-4 of the members were bringing the low up through the florida and up the east coast.

But those have disappeared.

I actually counted 6 ensemble members that were closer to the coast than the OP and 2, maybe 3 that would be good hits

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  On 2/6/2012 at 8:41 PM, tarheelwx said:

Can you please interpret?

TW

Currently in phase 7. Phases 7-1 would be good for the SE winter storm development based on the JFM temp & precip composites.

Precip:

http://www.cpc.ncep....bined_image.png

Temp:

http://www.cpc.ncep....bined_image.png

Read more here.

http://www.cpc.ncep....O/mjoupdate.pdf

It's hard to grasp considering there's a lot to it...but most people think phases 7, 8 and 1 are "good" to be in for our chances.

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  On 2/6/2012 at 7:16 PM, jmundie said:

If you're not keeping track of the ensemble members, you're missing half the forecasting battle.

The ensemble mean smooths things out and can give you an idea on temps and heights.

Look at the individual members to see what kind of agreement there is. If the majority of the ensembles are showing a similar evolution, that means that even with varying data, the models are all coming to a similar solution, which means its a fairly likely outcome.

I was excited this weekend, because 3-4 of the members were bringing the low up through the florida and up the east coast.

But those have disappeared.

I know what the Ensembles are and why they are used...I should have clarified for this storm I haven't been keeping track of individual members.

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