Marion_NC_WX Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 May our misery come to an end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 May our misery come to an end... Ah, the air smells fresh and clean in here. Lets hope for a fab Feb, or at least one storm that goes from fantasy to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 Ah, the air smells fresh and clean in here. Lets hope for a fab Feb, or at least one storm that goes from fantasy to reality. Yeah...this is a no smoking thread. Our previous thread turned out to be a rotten fart on the last few pages... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 So far we have went through 4 other users who started these threads: CAD_Wedge_NC, strongwxnc, Rankin5150, and Burger and winter still remains as a stubborn one. Hopefully you'll be the one to turn the tables. It's also convenient that this was made around the time the 0z run period begins so perhaps we will see good solutions tonight haha. Wishful thinking on my part, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 For the period Dec1-Feb1... NAO has been negative only 3 out of the 63 days (or 4.8% of days) AO has been negative only 12 out of the 63 days (or 19.0% of days) We have, however, experienced a recent negative run of the AO. It has been negative each of the last 12 days, and substantially negative over the last 6 days: Jan 27: -2.3 Jan 28: -3.4 Jan 29: -3.0 Jan 30: -2.5 Jan 31: -2.1 Feb 1: -3.9 If we take this back to Sept. 1st... AO has been negative only 23 out of the 154 days (or 15.0% of the days) NAO has been negative only 24 out of the 154 days (or 15.6% of the days) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 For the period Dec1-Feb1... NAO has been negative only 3 out of the 63 days (or 4.8% of days) AO has been negative only 12 out of the 63 days (or 19% of days) We have, however, experienced a recent negative run of the AO. It has been negative each of the last 12 days, and substantially negative over the last 6 days: Jan 27: -2.3 Jan 28: -3.4 Jan 29: -3.0 Jan 30: -2.5 Jan 31: -2.1 Feb 1: -3.9 If we take this back to Sept. 1st... AO has been negative only 23 out of the 154 days (or 15.0% of the days) NAO has been negative only 24 out of the 154 days (or 15.6% of the days) Interesting but ugly! Thanks for the info... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 A system or 2 is worth watching , namely what develops in southern Cali and works toward the central Gulf over a week from now. Odds are, it ends up further north than shown, thats almost a given, but temps are going to be the problem. We can also have something timed just right after that event when there is slightly colder air in place, but no models have enough of a cold press south yet. We may end up waiting a while longer to get widespread cold further south and a southern Greenland ridge. There is still a definite lack of strong arctic highs in Canada, which has been a major problem. I'm still hopeful and think, that some part of the South will end up with a big one, but who knows,may take a long while yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 So far we have went through 4 other users who started these threads: CAD_Wedge_NC, strongwxnc, Rankin5150, and Burger and winter still remains as a stubborn one. Hopefully you'll be the one to turn the tables. It's also convenient that this was made around the time the 0z run period begins so perhaps we will see good solutions tonight haha. Wishful thinking on my part, I know. He is the Man! I know that this Hail Mary will hit between the numbers and rain snow on all of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Well we realistically have 5 more weeks we could see snow, mountains maybe a week or two longer. Think about this, 5 weeks ago was roughly Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The reason we have trouble getting cold to penetrate south of the Canadian border lately is the fact that Pacific flow is so fast and forces cold airmasses to continue moving east , southeast, not south. Posted this on the website. Its still showing up as a big problem, and sort of flies in the face of traditional +PNA, but that ridging isn't clean at all yet. The models still have it getting a good look but somehow they manage to only skim the cold down here (or anywhere). Thats because the flow is so fast anything coming south, ends up curving rapidly toward the Atlantic or Eastern Canada and Greenland. Its rather odd, most years a +PNA would in fact deliver eastern cold. This particular year, we will need a strong amplification or Greenland/eastern Can. Blocking. Think about it..all our cold (2 events) have come from deep sudden trough amplifications. Its really been a bad pattern for Winter in the states, with riding ruling the pattern here, or zonal flow. Hopefully we don't go into Greenland blocking in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 A system or 2 is worth watching , namely what develops in southern Cali and works toward the central Gulf over a week from now. Odds are, it ends up further north than shown, thats almost a given, but temps are going to be the problem. We can also have something timed just right after that event when there is slightly colder air in place, but no models have enough of a cold press south yet. We may end up waiting a while longer to get widespread cold further south and a southern Greenland ridge. There is still a definite lack of strong arctic highs in Canada, which has been a major problem. I'm still hopeful and think, that some part of the South will end up with a big one, but who knows,may take a long while yet. I'm sure you noticed the difference in feeling waiting for the cold to come in Dec. as opposed to Feb.. Reminds me of an old saying. Anxiety is the first time a man can't do it the second time. Panic is the second time he can't do it the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Well we realistically have 5 more weeks we could see snow, mountains maybe a week or two longer. Think about this, 5 weeks ago was roughly Christmas. the mountains won't be out of the woods until April this year probably. There's no guarantees or much reason to cutoffs in the mountains, but there have been quite a few of them in Spring time lately. Seems like warmer Winters tend toward more of them. And this Winter has definitely put out the cutoffs, just so far they've formed in the Southwest or Tenn. Valley. March could (and just might be) the snowiest Winter month in the mountains. Doesn't do the lower elevations much good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The reason we have trouble getting cold to penetrate south of the Canadian border lately is the fact that Pacific flow is so fast and forces cold airmasses to continue moving east , southeast, not south. Posted this on the website. Its still showing up as a big problem, and sort of flies in the face of traditional +PNA, but that ridging isn't clean at all yet. The models still have it getting a good look but somehow they manage to only skim the cold down here (or anywhere). Thats because the flow is so fast anything coming south, ends up curving rapidly toward the Atlantic or Eastern Canada and Greenland. Its rather odd, most years a +PNA would in fact deliver eastern cold. This particular year, we will need a strong amplification or Greenland/eastern Can. Blocking. Think about it..all our cold (2 events) have come from deep sudden trough amplifications. Its really been a bad pattern for Winter in the states, with riding ruling the pattern here, or zonal flow. Hopefully we don't go into Greenland blocking in late March. Good points Foothills, and the AO/NAO numbers back up that logic. Tough hill to climb here in the near term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 Well we realistically have 5 more weeks we could see snow, mountains maybe a week or two longer. Think about this, 5 weeks ago was roughly Christmas. Yep...hard to believe it has passed this quickly. I think 5 more weeks for those east of the mountains could be a stretch. The one thing that saves the mountains is that they can get Northwest flow events through all of March. But for the more populated areas, they are really maybe only a week or two later than us because they rely on synoptics as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 As said, we have an uphill battle fighting the strong zonal flow in the near term, but just purely looking at the numbers.... I've run numbers for snows in Charlotte (CLT) going back to 1878. If you look at 2 categories of snows...the first being all measureable snow events (at least 0.1 inches) and the second being all snows of 5 inches or greater, March and December are essentially equal in the number of cases. For all events, the peak number of cases occurs in the 2nd half of January, and for all snows of 5 inches or greater, the peak number of cases occurs in the 2nd half of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 We have had some of our biggest snows in March and April and we will pay for this weather. No model watching no PNA, AO, or NAO watching i just no we will get hit hard before May this year. No way the mountains goes without one really cold shot or snow storm this winter/spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Even though its a very bad year, and no really cold air coming anytime soon, patience could still pay off. I wouldn't guarantee it but I still firmly believe the odds will favor one amplified pattern dropping a strong cutoff (with decent cold air) somewhere in the Southeast that taps the gulf or atlantic. Right now thats still our best shot, versus a widespread system moving west to east. The split flow showing up briefly could also be something to watch, but more than likely, a late Feb or March system will strongly amplify in the South and may have just enough cold. It fits the pattern of whats happened all Fall for sure, and by the time March is here, the seasons are changing, which means strong meridional "whip lash" flows are in a second max. Mountains usually do well with those, but with the shear number that are still showing up in mid Winter, I have to believe at some point one will have cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Even though its a very bad year, and no really cold air coming anytime soon, patience could still pay off. I wouldn't guarantee it but I still firmly believe the odds will favor one amplified pattern dropping a strong cutoff (with decent cold air) somewhere in the Southeast that taps the gulf or atlantic. Right now thats still our best shot, versus a widespread system moving west to east. The split flow showing up briefly could also be something to watch, but more than likely, a late Feb or March system will strongly amplify in the South and may have just enough cold. It fits the pattern of whats happened all Fall for sure, and by the time March is here, the seasons are changing, which means strong meridional "whip lash" flows are in a second max. Mountains usually do well with those, but with the shear number that are still showing up in mid Winter, I have to believe at some point one will have cold air to work with. I think it may be a system that sneaks up on you. Something like well snow to rain of maybe calling for all rain and then something happens and the upper layers and surface si colder than planed and we have a setup for all snow instead of rain. We have had some great thunder snows in April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I think it may be a system that sneaks up on you. Something like well snow to rain of maybe calling for all rain and then something happens and the upper layers and surface si colder than planed and we have a setup for all snow instead of rain. We have had some great thunder snows in April! Yeah you guys in the mountains can get big ones in early Spring. You definitely don't have the worries lower elevations have once we get into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Yeah you guys in the mountains can get big ones in early Spring. You definitely don't have the worries lower elevations have once we get into March. Ya elevation helps a lot. I do hope others get some snow though from some system whether ten days from now or a month it would be nice to have a widespread event but things just keep getting delayed. Maybe heading toward the middle to the end of the month will be the best time to watch. I no that does no good right now but if that were to verify Roger Smith would have had one hell of a year forecasting long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 Hmmmm...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 at 168 there is a strong split flow , and probably a Gulf low developing. The main impulse is back over the Baja. The cold though is already retreating but a new cold airmass is moving into the norther plains. Overall this looks like a major southern storm in the works, but cold air is lacking. Could be some in situ-damming to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 at 168 there is a strong split flow , and probably a Gulf low developing. The main impulse is back over the Baja. The cold though is already retreating but a new cold airmass is moving into the norther plains. Overall this looks like a major southern storm in the works, but cold air is lacking. Could be some in situ-damming to start. If the southern stream came in 12 hours earlier...that would make things a lot more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Ya elevation helps a lot. I do hope others get some snow though from some system whether ten days from now or a month it would be nice to have a widespread event but things just keep getting delayed. Maybe heading toward the middle to the end of the month will be the best time to watch. I no that does no good right now but if that were to verify Roger Smith would have had one hell of a year forecasting long range. Part of the problem of people seeming to give up on winter early is the tremendous difference in climate across the SE. Even if we just take NC as an example. Average Date of Last Frost Wilmington Airport, March 17, standard deviation 10 days Greensboro Airport , April 11, standard deviation 8 days Banner Elk, May 13, standard deviation 11 days Almost two full months difference just across NC. It's no wonder we have a big difference in opinion as to when it is time to bail on realistic snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Cold air is still nowhere to be found through ten days. Looks like a decent gulf storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Part of the problem of people seeming to give up on winter early is the tremendous difference in climate across the SE. Even if we just take NC as an example. Average Date of Last Frost Wilmington Airport, March 17, standard deviation 10 days Greensboro Airport , April 11, standard deviation 8 days Banner Elk, May 13, standard deviation 11 days Almost two full months difference just across NC. It's no wonder we have a big difference in opinion as to when it is time to bail on realistic snow chances. Lol ya sometimes when i read peoples post i have to see were they are from because i am like shoot we still could get winter storms at the end of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 If the southern stream came in 12 hours earlier...that would make things a lot more interesting. I think we'll have the southern system but cold air availability is going to be a problem probably. We'll see how the Euro handles it. Both models have problems lately with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Quite a big difference from the 18z where it had that system ramped up and cold air pushed way down. This run both are absent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Cold air is still nowhere to be found through ten days. Looks like a decent gulf storm too. Ya if that Gulf storm forms that could be interesting especially it being so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'm thinking that about 24 hours later might be better as it might give the hp in the plains time to slide south and east into a better position. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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