Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 yea I got educated , thanks. Control FTW? lOl http://mathsci.ucd.i...s/ECMWF-EPS.pdf ECMWF Ensemble Prediction Systemconsists of one control forecast startingfrom the best guess initial conditions,and 50 members starting from slightlyperturbed initial conditions. The leftpanels show the initial mean sea levelpressure for the control run starting on22 January 2009 (top left) and for oneof the ensemble members (bottom left).The differences between these startingconditions are hardly visible. However,these similar initial conditions produceforecasts that are very different after only48 hours forecast time Ah yeah there ya go....says it much better than I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Lets talk about the 8/9th, looks like a .25-.40 all snow across SNE, you guys buying it yet? On the euro there might actually be BL issues for a decent sized chunk of SNE....doesn't necessarily mean much right now but that's something to keep in mind going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 On the euro there might actually be BL issues for a decent sized chunk of SNE....doesn't necessarily mean much right now but that's something to keep in mind going forward. How sucky is it that the first week of Feb we have BL issues from high SSts with a circulation like this. Like you said early but can you imagine, geezus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Classic west of I495 special. Imagine if that verified..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 Classic west of I495 special. Imagine if that verified..... Thats puke in your mouth stuff right there. Still though it looks like we finally have some legit chances coming up, too legit to quit, too legit to quit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Thats puke in your mouth stuff right there. Still though it looks like we finally have some legit chances coming up, too legit to quit, too legit to quit What model are we riding this week coach, gfs is drizzle, throw it out and dry hump the limies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 How sucky is it that the first week of Feb we have BL issues from high SSts with a circulation like this. Like you said early but can you imagine, geezus Looks good to me. Will said just s coastal areas have problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 How sucky is it that the first week of Feb we have BL issues from high SSts with a circulation like this. Like you said early but can you imagine, geezus East of the ct river would have issues on that map, perhaps even in the hillier terrain, west is best no marine taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It's not even worth going over details right now. Who knows if anything even happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 East of the ct river would have issues on that map, perhaps even in the hillier terrain, west is best no marine taint. The marine taint only goes back as far west of 495.....it's pretty apparent on the map that Steve posted that there is ageostrophic flow to the west of that line. The CT River valley still may have issues because the airmass blows, but the hills west of 495 would be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 What model are we riding this week coach, gfs is drizzle, throw it out and dry hump the limies? Lets see what Tuesday brings, right now it is an absolute snooze fest, concentrate on a giants victory. Jets fan ultimate nightmare Pats vs Giants, no win situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 i know it's so far out, but GFS has been relatively consistent re: Feb 10-12 continues showing good placement of PV, and a whiff as northern and southern streams don't interact things could get very interesting if northern stream shortwave digs more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 Looks good to me. Will said just s coastal areas have problems downsloped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It's not even worth going over details right now. Who knows if anything even happens. true. i was just tossing it out there because on that run the air mass is pretty crappy and it has kind of had that look off/on again at times the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 Regarding 10-12 or so, good read here on Valentines 07 Upper air setup etc. http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/PostMortems/CSTARPostMortems/2007/ValentinesDayStorm/ValentineQAa.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 East of the ct river would have issues on that map, perhaps even in the hillier terrain, west is best no marine taint. I'm not sure what map that is but the maps I'm looking at during the actual storm have the 32F line from about Ray to BDL and the 35F isotherm is way down in SE MA and central/S RI. SW CT to the cape is torching though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I'm not sure what map that is but the maps I'm looking at during the actual storm have the 32F line from about Ray to BDL and the 35F isotherm is way down in SE MA and central/S RI. SW CT to the cape is torching though. AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Regarding 10-12 or so, good read here on Valentines 07 Upper air setup etc. http://cstar.cestm.a...alentineQAa.htm Great storm, just moved back up here from down south, tons of sleet and TONS of my all time fave Snow Needles!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I'm not sure what map that is but the maps I'm looking at during the actual storm have the 32F line from about Ray to BDL and the 35F isotherm is way down in SE MA and central/S RI. SW CT to the cape is torching though. wow, thats warm for many people,yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I'm not sure what map that is but the maps I'm looking at during the actual storm have the 32F line from about Ray to BDL and the 35F isotherm is way down in SE MA and central/S RI. SW CT to the cape is torching though. looks like the hillier terrain would be fine on that run...maybe right even into BOS. euro has the 925 0C line running from like DXR NE to PVD up to just south of BOS with SE flow so that always just makes me think BL issues for a sizable area of the CP. but like scooter was saying...5 days out so whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 looks like the hillier terrain would be fine on that run...maybe right even into BOS. euro has the 925 0C line running from like DXR NE to PVD up to just south of BOS with SE flow so that always just makes me think BL issues for a sizable area of the CP. but like scooter was saying...5 days out so whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 looks like the hillier terrain would be fine on that run...maybe right even into BOS. euro has the 925 0C line running from like DXR NE to PVD up to just south of BOS with SE flow so that always just makes me think BL issues for a sizable area of the CP. but like scooter was saying...5 days out so whatever. regardless...point in earlier post wasn't to imply rain...just something to keep in the back of our minds with that set-up mid to late week as it's not ideal if something comes along in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 looks like the hillier terrain would be fine on that run...maybe right even into BOS. euro has the 925 0C line running from like DXR NE to PVD up to just south of BOS with SE flow so that always just makes me think BL issues for a sizable area of the CP. but like scooter was saying...5 days out so whatever. Well def south of a HFD to BOS line would probably have issues...but like where Ray is would be totally fine and most of metro west BOS and probably north suburbs of PVD and up 95 toward BOS....probably a wet snow there, but I'd think snow. The flow is actually turning more ENE by 132h as the low starts to bomb a bit. But yeah...details at 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 true. i was just tossing it out there because on that run the air mass is pretty crappy and it has kind of had that look off/on again at times the last few days. Oh no...it wasn't directed at anyone. I'm just numb to anything 4 days out and beyond after this winter..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 wow, thats warm for many people,yuck. It's warm for the coast..everyone else would be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 Well def south of a HFD to BOS line would probably have issues...but like where Ray is would be totally fine and most of metro west BOS and probably north suburbs of PVD and up 95 toward BOS....probably a wet snow there, but I'd think snow. The flow is actually turning more ENE by 132h as the low starts to bomb a bit. But yeah...details at 132 Yea details at 132, solid 850's below to the coast and with the 925s as Phil described not bad. Hope it holds and the Euros warm BL bias is in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It's warm for the coast..everyone else would be snow. yes, where most people actually live the cp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Oh no...it wasn't directed at anyone. I'm just numb to anything 4 days out and beyond after this winter..lol. yeah i hear ya. i'm hopeful we can get something going in the next week or two and maybe march delivers too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 yes, where most people actually live the cp. Most people do not live on the coast. 90% of the posters on here live inland which is defined as 15+ miles away from the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Well def south of a HFD to BOS line would probably have issues...but like where Ray is would be totally fine and most of metro west BOS and probably north suburbs of PVD and up 95 toward BOS....probably a wet snow there, but I'd think snow. The flow is actually turning more ENE by 132h as the low starts to bomb a bit. But yeah...details at 132 yeah i hate even digging down into anything at this time frame. it's just so boring right now it's hard not too start looking at these things in greater detail...it's a sickness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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