Ice Warrior commander Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Sorry to hear about your dad Dave. My Condolences.. Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Thanks for the kind words Any good news on the model front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 Let me say this, the Euro Ens run has the biggest weenie storm of the year, 13-14th man if only. it just rots a 984 storm south of LI for 12 hrs then moves it to the BM for another 12. Precip totals are over 1.75 Very bullish on the 8th 9th storm too. Runs a cutter the 17th then back to Cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Let me say this, the Euro Ens run has the biggest weenie storm of the year, 13-14th man if only. it just rots a 984 storm south of LI for 12 hrs then moves it to the BM for another 12. Precip totals are over 1.75 Very bullish on the 8th 9th storm too. Runs a cutter the 17th then back to Cold big...big...winter in..coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 How are temPs fir the 8th/9th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Let me say this, the Euro Ens run has the biggest weenie storm of the year, 13-14th man if only. it just rots a 984 storm south of LI for 12 hrs then moves it to the BM for another 12. Precip totals are over 1.75 Very bullish on the 8th 9th storm too. Runs a cutter the 17th then back to Cold Where do you see this? I see the EC ensembles, and see nothing of the sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 How are temPs fir the 8th/9th? ppppppperfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I think Steve is drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 Where do you see this? I see the EC ensembles, and see nothing of the sort. hmmm, it is on there, what does yours show for the 234-252 time frame at the surface, interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 I think Steve is drunk. Can not post it bro, would never make that sh it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I think Steve is drunk. You are such a DD lately 10-14" incoming. Well maybe 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 hmmm, it is on there, what does yours show for the 234-252 time frame at the surface, interesting. On my site and on Allan's site, I barely even see a low pressure center. It's not a big deal since at hr 240 and beyond, we can sometimes have a big spread, but I don't see a signal even remotely that strong. I do however, see the signal. I'm not saying I disagree....but I don't see anything remotely that strong, and I can see the ensembles every 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 On my site and on Allan's site, I barely even see a low pressure center. It's not a big deal since at hr 240 and beyond, we can sometimes have a big spread, but I don't see a signal even remotely that strong. I do however, see the signal. I'm not saying I disagree....but I don't see anything remotely that strong, and I can see the ensembles every 6 hrs. Who drinks at 0830 on a Saturday? Besides saving that up for the GIANT victory tomorrow. IDK man just what I saw this Am. Yea not seeing crapola on Allans site either. look forward to the storm on the 9th though, that looks real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Yeah....weenie run for sure thats not the ens mean though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 <p> Yeah....weenie run for sure I am so drunk i swear I just saw a similar map to what i saw this AM from a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 <p>I am so drunk i swear I just saw a similar map to what i saw this AM from a friend. i believe that's just the control run of the ec ens mean package. it's not the actual ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 thats not the ens mean though Yeah that looks like a weenie ensemble member. That's not the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 thats not the ens mean though what does that mean?, j/k , what is it then, one member? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 thats not the ens mean though Yeah I know. I was going out on a limb thinking that Steve was speaking about the good old control run..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 <p>I am so drunk i swear I just saw a similar map to what i saw this AM from a friend. It's going to be a great few weeks....lot's of fun coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 what does that mean?, j/k , what is it then, one member? its the control run for the ec ens mean package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 its the control run for the ec ens mean package. lock it up, what does control mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 lock it up, what does control mean? it's like the main run that helps define all the other ensemble members. so it's not just that the op gets run and then immediately the ens are run. the control run is kind of like having an op run in charge of the ensembles...in a way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 it's like the main run that helps define all the other ensemble members. so it's not just that the op gets run and then immediately the ens are run. the control run is kind of like having an op run in charge of the ensembles...in a way yea I got educated , thanks. Control FTW? lOl http://mathsci.ucd.i...s/ECMWF-EPS.pdf ECMWF Ensemble Prediction Systemconsists of one control forecast startingfrom the best guess initial conditions,and 50 members starting from slightlyperturbed initial conditions. The leftpanels show the initial mean sea levelpressure for the control run starting on22 January 2009 (top left) and for oneof the ensemble members (bottom left).The differences between these startingconditions are hardly visible. However,these similar initial conditions produceforecasts that are very different after only48 hours forecast time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Dave, sorry for your loss, bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 it's like the main run that helps define all the other ensemble members. so it's not just that the op gets run and then immediately the ens are run. the control run is kind of like having an op run in charge of the ensembles...in a way so then it is a good thing yes? it is more than just one member? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 so then it is a good thing yes? it is more than just one member? No read my link, it is one run from the best guess initial conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 Lets talk about the 8/9th, looks like a .25-.40 all snow across SNE, you guys buying it yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It's only 8-11 days away. Classic 2001-'02 type dead ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Lets talk about the 8/9th, looks like a .25-.40 all snow across SNE, you guys buying it yet? Is that the Euro that shows those amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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