Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 looking a bit more closely you do get the sense that models may be underestimating precip on the northern side of tonight's low. in a relatively cold, saturated column it doesn't take much lift to produce some snows. there is some very weak forcing so maybe the precip shield extends a bit more north than shown...or maybe we end up with a big shield of virga. Don't disagree at all here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I know people have been pretty down on the euro this winter but globally the ec has been man handling the gfs for the last month. Anomaly correlation of 0.924 vs. 0.886 for 500mb at Day 5. That's more than the normal spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 lol....Eastern MA special... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I know people have been pretty down on the euro this winter but globally the ec has been man handling the gfs for the last month. Anomaly correlation of 0.924 vs. 0.886 for 500mb at Day 5. That's more than the normal spread. if i could read that small font..I'd violently agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 You ready for some snow squalls this weekend? This looks pretty good for a couple rounds of 1-4" accumulations in very short periods of time. First one Friday night/Saturday morning, then again Sunday morning. I could easily see 3-6" total from both fronts, with localized 8-10" amounts over the high peaks of the Spine. Total arctic fluff and blowing and drifting. Should be a snowy weekend. The snowpack up here has gone to sh*t and is down to 4" of crusty crap. We need some decent squalls to freshen it up. Yeah I think out toward you has a good chance of 6+" over the course of the weekend, but I'm not convinced about out here yet. If there's abundant low level moisture, we can eek out 3-6" like we did last weekend. BTV was calling for flurries and I woke up to a magical 3-4" of fluff Saturday morning. I know you guys at Stowe are doing well, but as a native CT guy being up here who is used to nor'easters, I'm sick of this nickel and dime business. Give me a good synoptic event that doesn't go to rain and I'll be content. With that said, it could be worse I suppose. I know you do wx forecasting/data collection over there at Stowe. I'm trying to find something like that over here at Burke, but the higher ups are tough to get to. I'd love to examine the temp and snowpack variations and overall conditions up and down the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 if i could read that small font..I'd violently agree lol yeah not sure why that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 lol....Eastern MA special... LOL Norlun feature at day 3/4 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Should be a snowy weekend. The snowpack up here has gone to sh*t and is down to 4" of crusty crap. I know you guys at Stowe are doing well, but as a native CT guy being up here who is used to nor'easters, I'm sick of this nickel and dime business. Give me a good synoptic event that doesn't go to rain and I'll be content. Dude be happy with what you've got...if you were home you'd be laying face first on the beach right now tanning your azzcheeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2012 Author Share Posted February 8, 2012 Should be a snowy weekend. The snowpack up here has gone to sh*t and is down to 4" of crusty crap. We need some decent squalls to freshen it up. Yeah I think out toward you has a good chance of 6+" over the course of the weekend, but I'm not convinced about out here yet. If there's abundant low level moisture, we can eek out 3-6" like we did last weekend. BTV was calling for flurries and I woke up to a magical 3-4" of fluff Saturday morning. I know you guys at Stowe are doing well, but as a native CT guy being up here who is used to nor'easters, I'm sick of this nickel and dime business. Give me a good synoptic event that doesn't go to rain and I'll be content. With that said, it could be worse I suppose. I know you do wx forecasting/data collection over there at Stowe. I'm trying to find something like that over here at Burke, but the higher ups are tough to get to. I'd love to examine the temp and snowpack variations and overall conditions up and down the mountain. you need to study a little on your climo up there. March is an awesome month, you have 54 inches out of a climo normal 90 and you bit ch like you are deprived.. Late Feb march sun is not what it is in southern CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Dude be happy with what you've got...if you were home you'd be laying face first on the beach right now tanning your azzcheeks Hence the 'it could be worse I suppose". Dude, why are you not going to school for wx? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Hence the 'it could be worse I suppose". Dude, why are you not going to school for wx? lol Wish I was...guess I was too far and too rooted into my uconn education to leave. Wish they had a met dpt here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 looking a bit more closely you do get the sense that models may be underestimating precip on the northern side of tonight's low. in a relatively cold, saturated column it doesn't take much lift to produce some snows. there is some very weak forcing so maybe the precip shield extends a bit more north than shown...or maybe we end up with a big shield of virga. Yeah, glad you see it too. It may not mean much, but this could have a better nrn edge than models are showing regarding QPF. Maybe the difference between a dusting and an inch or a bit more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 you need to study a little on your climo up there. March is an awesome month, you have 54 inches out of a climo normal 90 and you bit ch like you are deprived.. Late Feb march sun is not what it is in southern CT Yea usually its pretty good, but nickel and diming with fluff is useless and doesn't do anything to the pack. It compacts to nothing within a day. I know CT sucks, but compared to normal it sucks everywhere. That's all I said. And March can be good, but by March its still on the downswing per se, and trust me, the sun angle in March 15 here is still the sun angle in CT in very late Feb. It still does a number on everything. And, to be honest, have you been to Northern VT? 50" on the year is AWFUL. The equivalent to 15-20" in CT. The only difference is that people up here live off of snow. AND everyone's btching when they have better deficits. most of CNE is doing quite well thanks to October. so 35 out of 50" isn't all that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The GFS op tries to use the block to force the d8 fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2012 Author Share Posted February 8, 2012 Yea usually its pretty good, but nickel and diming with fluff is useless and doesn't do anything to the pack. It compacts to nothing within a day. I know CT sucks, but compared to normal it sucks everywhere. That's all I said. And March can be good, but by March its still on the downswing per se, and trust me, the sun angle in March 15 here is still the sun angle in CT in very late Feb. It still does a number on everything. I understand but come on man, Joe is growing cukes and swimming in the sound while you are waxing them up. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 and the d10 storm. LOL Shame I'lll be in FL, but I'd still be sitting there online rooting it on..... The GFS op tries to use the block to force the d8 fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I understand but come on man, Joe is growing cukes and swimming in the sound while you are waxing them up. LOL Let me know if you want some zucchini or eggplant this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I understand but come on man, Joe is growing cukes and swimming in the sound while you are waxing them up. LOL I was home from 12/13-1/16 and trust me it sucked. But even Joe got 8" on 1/21 which gave everyone in southern CT some temporary 'life'. The biggest event we've had up here is 9" in November. Everything else has been 0.5"-4". In retrospect its better than nothing as I said, but i mean it sucks and you'd feel the same if you were here, so would everyone. But, I am grateful for what I have of course. Hopefully everyone can get one more decent synoptic event, whether SNE is next week and NNE is in March, thats fine with me. PS- yes the skiing has been surprisingly decent considering LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Let me know if you want some zucchini or eggplant this year You should start a more lucrative plant growing business down there in the trops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Wish I was...guess I was too far and too rooted into my uconn education to leave. Wish they had a met dpt here Yeah thats a shame. If only you majored in business or something. You could come in as a junior and have a majority of you Private Industry credits done and all GEU's done, while taking multiple met courses and be out in 2-3 years. Easier said than done, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2012 Author Share Posted February 8, 2012 Let me know if you want some zucchini or eggplant this year Love me some Zucchini and melanzana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Should be a snowy weekend. The snowpack up here has gone to sh*t and is down to 4" of crusty crap. We need some decent squalls to freshen it up. Yeah I think out toward you has a good chance of 6+" over the course of the weekend, but I'm not convinced about out here yet. If there's abundant low level moisture, we can eek out 3-6" like we did last weekend. BTV was calling for flurries and I woke up to a magical 3-4" of fluff Saturday morning. I know you guys at Stowe are doing well, but as a native CT guy being up here who is used to nor'easters, I'm sick of this nickel and dime business. Give me a good synoptic event that doesn't go to rain and I'll be content. With that said, it could be worse I suppose. I know you do wx forecasting/data collection over there at Stowe. I'm trying to find something like that over here at Burke, but the higher ups are tough to get to. I'd love to examine the temp and snowpack variations and overall conditions up and down the mountain. That is very, very relative. I wouldn't say we are "doing well" but we are doing well based on what everyone else is seeing. There's still under a foot of snow on the ground, around 8-9" of rock solid dirty stuff here but goes to like 6" in the very center of the village and lower village. Up at 1,500ft though there's 17" so thats a little better but still very low for this time of year up there. And I agree, I'm very sick of the nickel and dime stuff but that's like 70% of winter up here, no matter what year it is. Near daily light snows... though we usually mix it in with occasional synoptic storms. I just want a snowfall that I can't clear with a broom. I'd trade 8" of dust for 4" of dense needles in a synoptic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 That is very, very relative. I wouldn't say we are "doing well" but we are doing well based on what everyone else is seeing. There's still under a foot of snow on the ground, around 8-9" of rock solid dirty stuff here but goes to like 6" in the very center of the village and lower village. Up at 1,500ft though there's 17" so thats a little better but still very low for this time of year up there. And I agree, I'm very sick of the nickel and dime stuff but that's like 70% of winter up here, no matter what year it is. Near daily light snows... though we usually mix it in with occasional synoptic storms. I just want a snowfall that I can't clear with a broom. I'd trade 8" of dust for 4" of dense needles in a synoptic system. Right. Everyone is upset because we say 50" here and 120" at Mansfield is 'bad'. But in reality, we have it just as bad in the deficit dept. as SNE does, if not worse thanks to Snowtober. I guess snow pixie dust snow is better than 48F and mud for this time of year. I love snow like the best of them, but if this is the scenario by 3/1 and there are no threats on the horizon, I may start looking toward Spring up here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2012 Author Share Posted February 8, 2012 That is very, very relative. I wouldn't say we are "doing well" but we are doing well based on what everyone else is seeing. There's still under a foot of snow on the ground, around 8-9" of rock solid dirty stuff here but goes to like 6" in the very center of the village and lower village. Up at 1,500ft though there's 17" so thats a little better but still very low for this time of year up there. And I agree, I'm very sick of the nickel and dime stuff but that's like 70% of winter up here, no matter what year it is. Near daily light snows... though we usually mix it in with occasional synoptic storms. I just want a snowfall that I can't clear with a broom. I'd trade 8" of dust for 4" of dense needles in a synoptic system. As you stare in the face of what may be your best upslope event of the year, no sympathy here bro, enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2012 Author Share Posted February 8, 2012 Right. Everyone is upset because we say 50" here and 120" at Mansfield is 'bad'. But in reality, we have it just as bad in the deficit dept. as SNE does, if not worse thanks to Snowtober. I guess snow pixie dust snow is better than 48F and mud for this time of year. I love snow like the best of them, but if this is the scenario by 3/1 and there are no threats on the horizon, I may start looking toward Spring up here lol LOL on Feb 8th in a spot that can get 50 inch March snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 LOL on Feb 8th in a spot that can get 50 inch March snows. And 20"+ in April to boot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 LOL on Feb 8th in a spot that can get 50 inch March snows. Yeah, him and Sam...best of luck looking for Spring in NNE on Feb 8th. Gonna have to play hacky sack indoors for another 2.5 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Boyz cryin' for their mamas cold. Not even close to cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Wish I was...guess I was too far and too rooted into my uconn education to leave. Wish they had a met dpt here That's the same problem I ran into at UVM... about halfway through college I really wished they had a MET department because I just couldn't bring myself to leave and go elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Not even close to cold. Pete's back!! Haha, missed the cold trolling... the ying to Libations yang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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