weathafella Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Seems like the GFS is caving to the EURO with the handling and location of the PV, therefore sharpening the trough allowing more energy to scoot around the base of it and not so far OTS. Seems like the opposite IMO. Yes...my original premise was poor. Should be interesting to see if the Euro holds or compromises which would be bad for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Folks, it is all relative to your backyard. I would not claim victory either way at all right now. The euro was 50 miles way from a whiff. People will say the euro caved because it took snow away from their backyard, when in fact both models may have trended towards each other. You have to look at it objectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 man...-28C 850s over kgay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The euro is not out yet, so lets hold off..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 man...-28C 850s over kgay. Awesome. At least it won't last long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 man...-28C 850s over kgay. And hopefully bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Folks, it is all relative to your backyard. I would not claim victory either way at all right now. The euro was 50 miles way from a whiff. People will say the euro caved because it took snow away from their backyard, when in fact both models may have trended towards each other. You have to look at it objectively. yeah that's just what i was saying above. kind of has that look. hopefully it's weighted more euro. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Yes...my original premise was poor. Should be interesting to see if the Euro holds or compromises which would be bad for all of us. I agree that if the Euro, even subtly, shifts toward the GFS, most bets are off for the weekend. But, with that said, most foreign models have the PV further SW and the trough sharper, even though everything still stays SE of the region. If the Euro continues its NW jog, the watch out. Other models will follow. It'll be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 It will be bare, don't worry....AIT. Good luck down the s shore and cape, though....hopefully it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Folks, it is all relative to your backyard. I would not claim victory either way at all right now. The euro was 50 miles way from a whiff. People will say the euro caved because it took snow away from their backyard, when in fact both models may have trended towards each other. You have to look at it objectively. Yeah, I was looking at it in terms of the PV, not the surface. And yeah its 0z data vs 12z data so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I wonder if ray will step down from the chair if the euro comes nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I wonder if ray will step down from the chair if the euro comes nw. I'm not on a chair...I don't want it to. The only way I wanted this is if it phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I wonder if ray will step down from the chair if the euro comes nw. Honestly, and god help me for saying this, his position on the 'chair' is sort of not totally far fetched lol It's been a shtty winter and its getting to the point where sun angle and climo says that snow lasts for 1-2 days then its gone. To me, thats not winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Awesome. At least it won't last long. yeah it's literally in and out of here in a matter of hours. that's some serious cold though. it intensifies the little clipper over the GOM so the NW jet rips for a few hours on the backside too so it would probably be accompanied by nasty wind chills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 -26C 925mb and -30C 850s for me Sun night on the GFS...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 yeah it's literally in and out of here in a matter of hours. that's some serious cold though. it intensifies the little clipper over the GOM so the NW jet rips for a few hours on the backside too so it would probably be accompanied by nasty wind chills. Man, what a miserable sequence of events. The weak little clipper skirts to the s, then blows up once it gets by you and flips ya the "NW Chill Byrd" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 We very well maybe "done, sir, done" until March, after this clipfail. THAT is what is intersting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Something is gonna have to give because I have a season of futility AND a stretch of essentially snowless Marchs ongoing...I can't wait to see how that pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I'm not on a chair...I don't want it to. The only way I wanted this is if it phased. Ah i actually wasnt sure if you already jumped and someone was posting here as you seeing how you never ever answer me on Facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Ah i actually wasnt sure if you already jumped and someone was posting here as you seeing how you never ever answer me on Facebook. Ok, Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Ok, Kev. Rather sure he dislikes me as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I agree that if the Euro, even subtly, shifts toward the GFS, most bets are off for the weekend. But, with that said, most foreign models have the PV further SW and the trough sharper, even though everything still stays SE of the region. If the Euro continues its NW jog, the watch out. Other models will follow. It'll be interesting to watch. You ready for some snow squalls this weekend? This looks pretty good for a couple rounds of 1-4" accumulations in very short periods of time. First one Friday night/Saturday morning, then again Sunday morning. I could easily see 3-6" total from both fronts, with localized 8-10" amounts over the high peaks of the Spine. Total arctic fluff and blowing and drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Perhaps, as Blizz would say, sneaky snow as GFS truncates at Day 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 looking a bit more closely you do get the sense that models may be underestimating precip on the northern side of tonight's low. in a relatively cold, saturated column it doesn't take much lift to produce some snows. there is some very weak forcing so maybe the precip shield extends a bit more north than shown...or maybe we end up with a big shield of virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Rather sure he dislikes me as well Maybe you should just jump in front of a plow and end it.....ah, crap...guess you'll have to live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 looking a bit more closely you do get the sense that models may be underestimating precip on the northern side of tonight's low. in a relatively cold, saturated column it doesn't take much lift to produce some snows. there is some very weak forcing so maybe the precip shield extends a bit more north than shown...or maybe we end up with a big shield of virga. Do you determine Column saturation by looking at rh fields? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Ughh 12Z GFS ruins it for you at h192-204. Man, what a miserable sequence of events. The weak little clipper skirts to the s, then blows up once it gets by you and flips ya the "NW Chill Byrd" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Maybe you should just jump in front of a plow and end it.....ah, crap...guess you'll have to live. Lol walking on ponds this winter could do the trick, although down here theyre completely bare lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 gfs still needs to make pretty significant leaps though. we don't want a compromise of this solution. We won't..As usual the GFS will cave to the Euro 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Rather sure he dislikes me as well WTF are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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