CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 This will be a good test for those 850-500 fields. Both have almost a comma head look to them across southern areas, but totally weaken the lift. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I know don't know why you're going after me. The phrase winters seem to have a theme, is partly true for underlying reasons like teleconnections etc. I did mention that. All I mean, is that if all guidance looks pretty interesting 3-4 days out, I would not throw that term around and say "no way this will work out". If that was the case, then people were dead wrong about Joe and Phil when they got 10-12" two weeks ago. Mesoscale, fluke-weenie bands are one thing....the large scale system blew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Mesoscale, fluke-weenie bands are one thing....the large scxale system blew. A lot of people got 3-6" out of it, including me. Every storm has mesoscale banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 This will be a good test for those 850-500 fields. Both have almost a comma head look to them across southern areas, but totally weaken the lift. We'll see. I think the problem is you have the primary low diving out of the midwest transferring it's energy to a developing coastal. Classic screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 the gfs is going to be a bit better i think...the pv is stretching out and the vort is digging farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I think the problem is you have the primary low diving out of the midwest transferring it's energy to a developing coastal. Classic screw zone. I mean tonight, sorry should have clarified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 It certainly seems like some winters have their own "agenda" or follow a similar rule of thumb... isn't that where the phrase, "It snows where it wants to snow" came from? Some winters, every little storm is an over-performer and you get buried, other winters, none of them work out. It often gets the point where regardless of what the models say, you almost already know the outcome. I completely agree with what you're saying. There's no way you can just objectively look at each threat (if you can call them that) without drawing on past events over the last 3 months. Right, there is a balance...admittedly I, along with a bunch of others, overdo the pessimism....part of it is venting frustration and trying to derive humor from despair. That comment from HM just kind of irked me...I was going to let it go, but this morning's discussion served as the impetus for me to get that off my chest. I my launch a weenie or 10, but I never refer to those in the optimistic camp as "unintelligent posters". Awful post from a great met and poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 A lot of people got 3-6" out of it, including me. Every storm has mesoscale banding. Ok, true...fine. I'll grant you that....but unsure as to the significance because even the worst winters produce a significant snowfall or three. That is why we have never been shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I mean tonight, sorry should have clarified. I am talking about tonight. It has the miller b look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 the gfs is going to be a bit better i think...the pv is stretching out and the vort is digging farther west. yeah it's a bit sharper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 This thread is impossible to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I'm done...sorry for the drail, Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 gfs still needs to make pretty significant leaps though. we don't want a compromise of this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 GFS is a little further west with the PV in Quebec (good) and also sharper with the nrn stream energy on Saturday. It's still not great looking like the euro is, but offers some snow showers it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 gfs still needs to make pretty significant leaps though. we don't want a compromise of this solution. Yes it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Euro will cave today. No snow for you. Sorry. Euro was subtly moving in the GFS direction. Not doing to work out snow wise I suspect. What can you do.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 GFS however is caving to Euro's cold for Sunday and beyond for a day or 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I am talking about tonight. It has the miller b look to it. I think the nrn edge will clip se areas, but how strong will it be? Even up into BOS could see some very light stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 gfs still needs to make pretty significant leaps though. we don't want a compromise of this solution. Agree. GFS did move towards the Euro but will the Euro cave some or remain steadfast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Sort of intrigued for south cstl areas tonight in a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 gfs has a potent arctic front on sun...with some serious cold behind it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 gfs has a potent arctic front on sun...with some serious cold behind it too Yeah no kidding. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Euro will cave today. No snow for you. Sorry. Euro was subtly moving in the GFS direction. Not doing to work out snow wise I suspect. What can you do.... There's an unintelligent doctor in the house. At least we'll probably see mood flakes...that would be a good deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Euro will cave today. No snow for you. Sorry. Euro was subtly moving in the GFS direction. Not doing to work out snow wise I suspect. What can you do.... that doesn't make a whole lot of sense jerry...the euro came in more amped up last night and close to something significant. In general, I agree, I suppose. It's more likely that it endes up a day late and a dollar short than it gets better from here. We are running out of time on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 gfs has a potent arctic front on sun...with some serious cold behind it too WINDEX baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Sort of intrigued for south cstl areas tonight in a way. yeah the RH fields look good. the lift seems absent though...all concentrated s of the islands with almost a convective bomb look to it. there is some weak omega over the extreme s coast and the cape. i think it's going to snow out here, just not sure that the good stuff makes it N of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Euro will cave today. No snow for you. Sorry. Euro was subtly moving in the GFS direction. Not doing to work out snow wise I suspect. What can you do.... Seems like the GFS is caving to the EURO with the handling and location of the PV, therefore sharpening the trough allowing more energy to scoot around the base of it and not so far OTS. Seems like the opposite IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 yeah the RH fields look good. the lift seems absent though...all concentrated s of the islands with almost a convective bomb look to it. there is some weak omega over the extreme s coast and the cape. i think it's going to snow out here, just not sure that the good stuff makes it N of ACK. That's my concern, the lift sucks...but I guess to me...I'm interested to see if models are too weak with the lift on the nrn part. I have nothing invested in it, other than to see how it works out. I think they may weaken it too much, but it's not like I would expect 2-4"..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Sort of intrigued for south cstl areas tonight in a way. This winter is behaving like a "watered down" version of the late 90's winters in that the cape is kind of a weenie spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Seems like the GFS is caving to the EURO with the handling and location of the PV, therefore sharpening the trough allowing more energy to scoot around the base of it and not so far OTS. Seems like the opposite IMO. i don't always like the idea of "model compromise" but we might be seeing that. if the euro doesn't back away at 12z today then i'd guess i'd expect it's got a hold of the features. but that said, the GFS seems like it was a bit too progressive and perhaps the euro is showing its 2011/12 winter colors of being a bit too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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