Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

The Feb 10-12 storm threat, real or imagined?


Ginx snewx

Recommended Posts

You mean you aren't going to enjoy this:

I told you 6 months ago I had concerns. Unfortunately, I didn't follow my own advice. We've had a cluster of well above normal snow winters in the past 10 years so I'm wondering if we suffer more than celebrate over the next 5.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I love of how each run of the EURO everyone is in awe of how much better it looks at H5, yet when the music stops, the ticker tape and confetti are cleaned away, we sober up and put our clothes back on, the question of how much it depicts is answered in the same monotone, stoic voice that only the 2011-'12 season can muster......1-3".

The date is Groundhog Day, the winter is 2011-'12...rinse, repeat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOL, getting old very quick. I don't really like seeing the euro still all by itself. I'm not completely buying it yet.

I'm not buying anything this winter when it's bare ground and 40s every day at 1200' in the Monadnocks during late January/early February. The pattern looks to revert to the same old on the long-range 6z GFS and especially 0z ECM with a +EPO/+NAO returning and warmer temperatures in the East. This arctic shot to start February looks to go by the wayside quickly as did the early January cold when we had -20C 850s down to NYC, but only for a day or so. Could be a very early spring at this rate....I bet we'd see a lot of daffodils/crocus/forsythia blooming by late February if the torch came back with the sun angle starting to increase.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I love of how each run of the EURO everyone is in awe of how much better it looks at H5, yet when the music stops, the ticker tape and confetti are cleaned away, we sober up and put our clothes back on, the question of how much it depicts is answered in the same monotone, stoic voice that only the 2011-'12 season can muster......1-3".

The date is Groundhog Day, the winter is 2011-'12...rinse, repeat.

We all just love how jovial you have been these past few months. Stellar performance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We all just love how jovial you have been these past few months. Stellar performance.

Ray has been Billy Murray-esque... it's entertaining, and fitting.

Ned: Phil?

Phil: Ned?

[Punches Ned in the face]

We have been through identical spurts of hope again and again, Groundhog day-like, but in the end we wake up to the same music.

I get HM's objectivity that upcoming weather does not care about what happened previously this winter... but this has been a pretty astounding stretch that just won't break.

Give me blockbuster, or give me futility.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not buying anything this winter when it's bare ground and 40s every day at 1200' in the Monadnocks during late January/early February. The pattern looks to revert to the same old on the long-range 6z GFS and especially 0z ECM with a +EPO/+NAO returning and warmer temperatures in the East. This arctic shot to start February looks to go by the wayside quickly as did the early January cold when we had -20C 850s down to NYC, but only for a day or so. Could be a very early spring at this rate....I bet we'd see a lot of daffodils/crocus/forsythia blooming by late February if the torch came back with the sun angle starting to increase.

Well that's not why I'm questioning. With other guidance still not sold on it, 50 miles se and we'll be left with a few snow showers. The euro and ensembles got a little better looking on guidance and GFS a smidge better looking so there is hope, but it's close to whiffing se, which is my concern. I'm not ruling it out, just still a little skeptical. I don't think the euro is unreasonable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ray has been Billy Murray-esque... it's entertaining, and fitting.

Ned: Phil?

Phil: Ned?

[Punches Ned in the face]

We have been through identical spurts of hope again and again, Groundhog day-like, but in the end we wake up to the same music.

I get HM's objectivity that upcoming weather does not care about what happened previously this winter... but this has been a pretty astounding stretch that just won't break.

Give me blockbuster, or give me futility.

I understand that HM is a scientist first and I love him to death, but he is full of $hit that each winter does not take on a general tenor...almost even a persona, if you will.

I agree with him that people get carried away with dismissing threats (not I, cough, cough)....but it's not as though seasons do not develop patterns of occurences.

Don't buy it.

Like anything else, there must be a balance between objectivity and anecdotal observations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I understand that HM is a scientist first and I love him to death, but he is full of $hit that each winter does not take on a general tenor...almost even a persona, if you will.

I agree with him that people get carried away with dismissing threats (not I, cough, cough)....but it's not as though seasons do not develop patterns of occurences.

Don't buy it.

Like anything else, there must be a balance between objectivity and anecdotal observations.

Dismissing threats because of the winter pattern is wrong imo, but there is also science as to why people feel that way. You either have no blocking and/or progressive flow so that s/w's may have a problem amplifying. And if they do, there's a risk of cutting west. That's a horribly abbreviated reason, but you get my point. However, if something legit shows up inside of 4 days...I don't think you should apply the notion of it not happening because of the winter pattern. In this case, if it doesn't happen..it's not because it's the winter of '11/'12, it's because models were in disagreement to begin with.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The first two months of winter was easy, it was easy being the torch bearer, because thats what it was a full on mega death torch. The pattern has changed, but as Will, Scooter and Phil have outlined it did not mean that it had to be accompanied with snow. Might get some fluff this weekend, and after that its right back into the fire, departures through 7 days are ridiculous. Its just not our winter.

Give me snow.............or give me Futility

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The first two months of winter was easy, it was easy being the torch bearer, because thats what it was a full on mega death torch. The pattern has changed, but as Will, Scooter and Phil have outlined it did not mean that it had to be accompanied with snow. Might get some fluff this weekend, and after that its right back into the fire, departures through 7 days are ridiculous. Its just not our winter.

Give me snow.............or give me Futility

I think in the next moderation period, I'll hit the yard to do some work. Ground was frozen this AM but it's minimal, maybe 1" at most.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9z RSM clips SW CT tonight and extreme south coastal areas. Less than 0.10

Wow bro, you are digging deep! This one is ova, my low of 31 is just too much for this s/w to overcome, confluence city baby, vodka cold zonal flow, nice bone dry bitter sunday, should be awesome, should be good for some flexible flyer slip and slide~capades.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow bro, you are digging deep! This one is ova, my low of 31 is just too much for this s/w to overcome, confluence city baby, vodka cold zonal flow, nice bone dry bitter sunday, should be awesome, should be good for some flexible flyer slip and slide~capades.

just 12 hours ago you said overperformer and 1" up to BOS and HFD...what happened?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow bro, you are digging deep! This one is ova, my low of 31 is just too much for this s/w to overcome, confluence city baby, vodka cold zonal flow, nice bone dry bitter sunday, should be awesome, should be good for some flexible flyer slip and slide~capades.

There should be some light snows/flurries in the area overnight for southern areas. RH fields look good enough to me. Won't amount to anything.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Winter 12 happened.........I can sense your close to losing it, or giving into the warmth, go ahead, give in.............it feels so good.

:lol: i don't approach things that way. like i said yesterday, i'll welcome any winter storm that wants to come this way.

at some point in the not-too-distant future i'll start looking forward to spring weather because that's just how my internal clock works...but i'm not there yet.

i don't pretend. it's stupid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

:lol: i don't approach things that way. like i said yesterday, i'll welcome any winter storm that wants to come this way.

at some point in the not-too-distant future i'll start looking forward to spring weather because that's just how my internal clock works...but i'm not there yet.

i don't pretend. it's stupid.

I think if we see this crap a month from now, I'll be there too. It's Feb 8th, to hope for Spring wx around the corner is beyond failure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...