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The Feb 10-12 storm threat, real or imagined?


Ginx snewx

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euro verbatim:

light stuff... quick 6 hr event, a little longer on cape, nowhere gets more than 1/2 inch / hr, best rates pvd-tan and southeast... southeast of new bedford might be too warm at surface

timeframe saturday late afternoon-evening

would probably be just enough to break futility for boston

definitely a good trend for those hoping to see white...

euro vs. gfs standoff continues

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Yeah was underwhelmed when I saw the surface ... low goes way out before it turns up and crushes Halifax. Congrats Hazey. :)

Wow, Euro is looking even more impressive in the upper levels now...still a general 1-3" for most of SNE but far SE area now have like a 3-6" event...if BL issues can be overcome...it will be a bit warm near the sfc there.

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The amount of cops on the roads in this country is unbelievable compared to say Europe where they mainly use hidden cams for speeders... In 30 years or driving: Oh I have been tailed, pulled over because they said I weaved across the middle lane, pulled over a few times when I looked really young ...are you old enough to drive? pulled over randomly and forced to do a sobriety test late on a Saturday night for no reason. Hey its a police state where they spend 80% if their time in speed traps and 20% fighting crime. LOL

Yeah hope we manage just a few inches at least this weekend. Another torch then next week after sub zero Monday would be the final insult.

great nite. just got pulled over after cop follows me for 4 miles and says for driving in "marked lanes" gave me a citation for it. WTF is that B F Sh(T. gimme snow or give me death :axe: (plz make it snow) :weenie:

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Who knows if it will happen this winter...but at some point, climo is going to pay us back big time in the month of March after our recent string of terrible Marches. We finally got paid back in the negative direction this year for our obscene string of prolific Decembers recently....March will be coming at some point.

You know how I always say "You can't fight climatology"....well, of course it works in the positive direction, too...the run of bad March's in SNE....one of the worst I can recall in recent memory....has to end sometime...

March 2012 snowfall forecast, made from my comfortable distance in the NYC forum:

Pittsfield: 20" or more

Worcester: 20" or more

Hartford / Bradley: 14" or more

Boston / Logan: 12" or more

Providence: 10" or more

Truth be told, that's close to an average March...give or take a few inches here and there...

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You know how I always say "You can't fight climatology"....well, of course it works in the positive direction, too...the run of bad March's in SNE....one of the worst I can recall in recent memory....has to end sometime...

March 2012 snowfall forecast, made from my comfortable distance in the NYC forum:

Pittsfield: 20" or more

Worcester: 20" or more

Hartford / Bradley: 14" or more

Boston / Logan: 12" or more

Providence: 10" or more

Truth be told, that's close to an average March...give or take a few inches here and there...

Climo for March here is about 14"....April is 3.6" and May is 0.4"...so the total from Mar 1 onward here is about 18"....but we've def been skunked in the meteorological spring for snow in recent years. 2007 did give us a good storm...but we really haven't seen the classic cutoff bombs recently like we saw in the 1990s to 2001.

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great nite. just got pulled over after cop follows me for 4 miles and says for driving in "marked lanes" gave me a citation for it. WTF is that B F Sh(T. gimme snow or give me death :axe: (plz make it snow) :weenie:

bs tickets are part of their revenue... agree, it's a racket

i said after the Pats lost... Winter 2011-12 version of Patrick Henry: give me blockbuster or give me futility.

region-wide gloom... we need something

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Climo for March here is about 14"....April is 3.6" and May is 0.4"...so the total from Mar 1 onward here is about 18"....but we've def been skunked in the meteorological spring for snow in recent years. 2007 did give us a good storm...but we really haven't seen the classic cutoff bombs recently like we saw in the 1990s to 2001.

My book has 16.0 / March at Worcester...though that is based on 1937 - 1979...and 4.1 for April...good old days...

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My book has 16.0 / March at Worcester...though that is based on 1937 - 1979...and 4.1 for April...good old days...

I recall some great months up there...especially western SNE...like April 1983...where around April 17....rain changed to snow and quickly accumulated 6 to 16 inches from the Litchfield Hiils to the Berkshires...then, two days later...a major Noreaster put down another foot in the same area...or March 1984...that late month storm...where NW CT got prolonged 4 inch per hour snowfall...

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Climo for March here is about 14"....April is 3.6" and May is 0.4"...so the total from Mar 1 onward here is about 18"....but we've def been skunked in the meteorological spring for snow in recent years. 2007 did give us a good storm...but we really haven't seen the classic cutoff bombs recently like we saw in the 1990s to 2001.

looking at Boston only, there were some statistically interesting clusters of years with big March snowfalls

for example,

1916-1924: 6 years with > 10 ", (2 years with < 2")

1956-1960: 5 years in a row with 11.5-31"

1992-1994: 3 years in a row with 10.8-38.9"

2003-2005: 3 years in a row with 8.1-14.5"

(climo average is 7.0")

i wonder if it's statistically insignificant, or if there is a mechanism for consecutive years of significantly above climo March snowfall

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There was also a storm around 3/13/84 that dropped around 15 inches of snow up here and a couple inches of sleet on that....

I recall some great months up there...especially western SNE...like April 1983...where around April 17....rain changed to snow and quickly accumulated 6 to 16 inches from the Litchfield Hiils to the Berkshires...then, two days later...a major Noreaster put down another foot in the same area...or March 1984...that late month storm...where NW CT got prolonged 4 inch per hour snowfall...

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bs tickets are part of their revenue... agree, it's a racket

i said after the Pats lost... Winter 2011-12 version of Patrick Henry: give me blockbuster or give me futility.

region-wide gloom... we need something

This will be my last year with Bs tickets.

Now up to $175 a seat face value.

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Wow, Euro is looking even more impressive in the upper levels now...still a general 1-3" for most of SNE but far SE area now have like a 3-6" event...if BL issues can be overcome...it will be a bit warm near the sfc there.

Nice. hopefully Eastern Mass can be cold enough to be all long duration snow.

I think a general 2-4 inches should cover it for most of SNE

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feel like the euro is in the process of folding to the GFS again...hopefully it doesn't and it has the synoptics right because that's a nice little snow event sat afternoon for some of the region.

I was about to say that I want to wait till 12z today to see what they show before jumping one way or another. The 00z Euro Ensm are certainly not great looking. Too progressive.

00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS096.gif

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At hr 90 is was south of the BM by about 100 miles, but a pretty large circulation. Still not like the op, however. Today will be telling. Guidance will cave one way or another.

I'd like to see the gfs crap on itself...but not too confident in that right now. 12z runs should be interesting...as we are getting down inside of 4 days now

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