CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I just got in ...quick look at the 18Z NAM and I think it is trending somewhat toward the Euro for the Saturday event. Yeah and it tries to show that anafrontal looking band of QPF from frontogenesis too. Get that s/w sharper, and it could continue that band eastward with the baroclinic zone overhead. Basically, you tighten the thermal gradient up and you get a response with rising air up and over the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Hows the NAM been this year? I think I've needed to look it for one storm in December.. I have no idea... Will or some other mets here might know. It's actually an interesting question... GFS/EURO have been terrible in the split flow regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 lol @ Monday morning on a couple of those GEFS members. That's Jan 04 type cold. btw...the old reliable DGEX is an E MA special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Well no question it's a wing and prayer.... what else is new this winter. One model (Euro) shows it well and even that model is slightly too late for a good hit. But at least it's something to follow. Yeah and it tries to show that anafrontal looking band of QPF from frontogenesis too. Get that s/w sharper, and it could continue that band eastward with the baroclinic zone overhead. Basically, you tighten the thermal gradient up and you get a response with rising air up and over the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 btw...the old reliable DGEX is an E MA special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 l btw...the old reliable DGEX is an E MA special. Stop focusing on E MA...everyone gets in on the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 LOL..I had no idea how many people would take that bait today. That was a good call by me . Noted for future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Stop focusing on E MA...everyone gets in on the snow. Yup...some snow for everyone there. I'm not sure that total QPF accounts for enough downsloping from the ORH hills though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I think it's funny (or sad) that a qpf max of .35" is considered a EMA special this winter. Stop focusing on E MA...everyone gets in on the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I think it's funny (or sad) that a qpf max of .35" is considered a EMA special this winter. hey... it would be the biggest snowfall of the season for kbos lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I think it's funny (or sad) that a qpf max of .35" is considered a EMA special this winter. I'm not sure anyone was saying it's special (though that's a solid storm this season) but more that the jackpot would likely be far east in New England. Honestly I really hope that happens for the BOS crowd. They've had it especially rough. Coastalwx provides awesome analysis day in and day out and has had to sit on the sidelines for the couple storms this season, including Oct and that one a couple weeks ago. Give the guy some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Not sure what BOS is at ...but at 13" ALB is giving them a run for the money. I'm not sure anyone was saying it's special (though that's a solid storm this season) but more that the jackpot would likely be far east in New England. Honestly I really hope that happens for the BOS crowd. They've had it especially rough. Coastalwx provides awesome analysis day in and day out and has had to sit on the sidelines for the couple storms this season, including Oct and that one a couple weeks ago. Give the guy some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Not sure what BOS is at ...but at 13" ALB is giving them a run for the money. And that is why I left that area and moved up here. Snow is too important to me in the winter to have to worry about suffering through that type of winter. Now it's a below normal winter and I've still had over 60" fall outside my door. I'd be cutting my wrists if I still lived in Albany. I may go visit the folks next week and not looking forward to leaving winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Not sure what BOS is at ...but at 13" ALB is giving them a run for the money. kbos: 7.8" (6.8" not including halloween freakshow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Also gives Mitch a mini-jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 LOL..I had no idea how many people would take that bait today. That was a good call by me . Noted for future Nah, you call it bait, but there is some hatred behind those posts. You hate when Will gets snow in the ORH hills and I know you hate when I and especially se mass gets more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I'm not sure anyone was saying it's special (though that's a solid storm this season) but more that the jackpot would likely be far east in New England. Honestly I really hope that happens for the BOS crowd. They've had it especially rough. Coastalwx provides awesome analysis day in and day out and has had to sit on the sidelines for the couple storms this season, including Oct and that one a couple weeks ago. Give the guy some snow! LOL payback from last year. It's fine, I like talking weather and if people and friends on this forum are getting snow, I'll always partake in the disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Yeah I was in Albany today and was just thinking..it just seems like maybe early November, hard to believe it's the heart of winter. I go to the state buildings downtown weekly and I know that downtown Albany got even less than the airport in a few of the meager events. My guess is at around 50 to 100 ft asl they may be at 8 or 9 inches for the season so far. Here at least we had 30" nickel and diming it. And that is why I left that area and moved up here. Snow is too important to me in the winter to have to worry about suffering through that type of winter. Now it's a below normal winter and I've still had over 60" fall outside my door. I'd be cutting my wrists if I still lived in Albany. I may go visit the folks next week and not looking forward to leaving winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Nice water vapor loop of the eastern 2/3 of the conus, kind of reminds me a bit of March 2010, I think the snows make it further north tom/tom night than being modeled right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Hope you get a few inches! You could probably surpass ALB on season snowfall then... Maybe you already ahead of BOS. Nice water vapor loop of the eastern 2/3 of the conus, kind of reminds me a bit of March 2010, I think the snows make it further north tom/tom night than being modeled right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Hope you get a few inches! You could probably surpass ALB on season snowfall then... Maybe you already ahead of BOS. 10.8, was very blessed on Jan 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Nice water vapor loop of the eastern 2/3 of the conus, kind of reminds me a bit of March 2010, I think the snows make it further north tom/tom night than being modeled right now. Most of the globals get light precip into some of sne so it wouldn't be shocking if it snows some tomorrow evening...some stuff even gets flurries to the pike so "further north than modeled" is kind of broad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 And that is why I left that area and moved up here. Snow is too important to me in the winter to have to worry about suffering through that type of winter. Now it's a below normal winter and I've still had over 60" fall outside my door. I'd be cutting my wrists if I still lived in Albany. I may go visit the folks next week and not looking forward to leaving winter. It's all relative though. You moved to a snowy area and now that you are accustomed to it, you don't want to move back to an area that receives a lot less. I average maybe 43-44" or so and a 60" winter is just fine for me. Of course I enjoy coastal storms so i dont mind averaging a little less than interior areas nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Most of the globals get light precip into some of sne so it wouldn't be shocking if it snows some tomorrow evening...some stuff even gets flurries to the pike so "further north than modeled" is kind of broad. k I will throw some numbers around me 1.5 hfd 1 bos 1 bob 1.5 c~weat 1.5 you 2 euro gives bdr 0.05 of precip, think its more like .1-.1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 k I will throw some numbers around me 1.5 hfd 1 bos 1 bob 1.5 c~weat 1.5 you 2 euro gives bdr 0.05 of precip, think its more like .1-.1.5 Couple gfs ens members offer up 1-2 out here but the majority are d-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2012 Author Share Posted February 8, 2012 k I will throw some numbers around me 1.5 hfd 1 bos 1 bob 1.5 c~weat 1.5 you 2 euro gives bdr 0.05 of precip, think its more like .1-.1.5 Most important NAM run of your life? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Most important NAM run of your life? lol, would be nice to see some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 nice vortmax that slides off the ma, too bad its so far south, tightens up pretty nicely and pulls in the moisture rh fields across the south coast look good, suspect a lot of virga, if only it was 150 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 BTV is on-board for a snowy weekend... .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EST TUESDAY...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WK...AS HUDSON BAY VORTEX DROPS ACRS THE NE CONUS. SEVERAL SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO INVADE OUR REGION...WITH THE FIRST ARRIVING ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG SURGE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EACH ARCTIC BOUNDARY WL FEATURE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...BOTH ECMWF/GEM HINTING AT A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT 5H VORT RIDING ALONG SFC BOUNDARY ACRS SNE AND WEAK SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT. FURTHERMORE...CYCLONIC NW UPSLOPE FLW AND STRONG LLVL CAA WL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT REMAINING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN MTNS. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -18C BY 00Z SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON SATURDAY WITH MANY LOWS TEMPS BY SUNDAY MORNING BLW ZERO. HOWEVER...WINDS/CLOUDS/LINGERING PRECIP MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETING BOTTOMING OUT ON SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...NEXT STRONGER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ACRS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH EVEN COLDER TEMPS. LATEST ECMWF SHOWS 925MB TEMPS NEAR -25C WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING -30C...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 0F IN MANY LOCATIONS BY MONDAY AND NEAR -10F AT BTV AND -25F AT SLK BY TUES MORNING. HOWEVER...FEEL THIS MAYBE OVERDONE SOME...BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS...POTENTIAL FOR AIRMASS MODIFICATION ACRS THE OPEN GREAT LAKES AND LIMITED SNOW COVER UPSTREAM. GIVEN LARGE DIFFERENCES RESULTING IN HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY AND LOW FCSTER CONFIDENCE...WL USE COMPROMISE AND MENTION TEMPS WELL BLW 0F ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY INTO TUES. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT TEMPS WL WARM RAPIDLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. OVERALL...ANTICIAPTED MUCH COLDER TEMPS WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THIS WKND INTO EARLY NEXT WK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Congrats, PF! I'm sure we'll get another event in SNE before winter winds down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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