moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Chester MA at 1450 feet is hurting even there Not as bad here, but it still sucks. Here's the wide-open shade free 12 acres out back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 GFS has flurries tomorrow night for SNE around 3z. Congrats everyone and enjoy!! I will post pics for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 If you look closely there you can see a "scalp" of long wispy brown hair there blowing in the wind dangling from one of the trees..it even looks like there's a yellow Pony-O attached to it LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 GFS is still lousy for the weekend....it would be nice to have it come around to the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I will post pics for you. Enjoy your 3-6. Flakes. Anyway, gfs has nothing for sat/sun. Didn't look much better for it either. Should be interesting to see if the euro keeps it at 00z. The gfs really just had that one run yesterday (?) that it had it...but that one run looked decent...but it hasn't had it since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Enjoy your 3-6. Flakes. Anyway, gfs has nothing for sat/sun. Didn't look much better for it either. Should be interesting to see if the euro keeps it at 00z. The gfs really just had that one run yesterday (?) that it had it...but that one run looked decent...but it hasn't had it since. No... GFS had it for multiple consecutive runs for > 24 hours... locations and timing of low bombing varied due to varying degrees of interaction between northern and southern streams and varying organization of energy digging around the trough, but it was there. Not humping anything, just saying what it showed. Since then, it's trended towards greater confluence squashing the southern shortwave far ots and more stretched out northern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 No... GFS had it for multiple consecutive runs for > 24 hours... locations and timing of low bombing varied due to varying degrees of interaction between northern and southern streams and varying organization of energy digging around the trough, but it was there. Not humping anything, just saying what it showed. Since then, it's trended towards greater confluence squashing the southern shortwave far ots and more stretched out northern energy. Thanks for the correction, and the euro has trended in the opposite direction, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 GFS is still lousy for the weekend....it would be nice to have it come around to the other guidance. No actually it wouldn't.. wtf cares about that POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The GFS really doesn't want to buy anything other than suppression city for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Thanks for the correction, and the euro has trended in the opposite direction, correct? Yeah, kind of ironic... (btw you can actually see the very first post of this thread showing a GFS solution with a decent coastal low way back on Feb 1st)... we'll see which way Euro goes tonight, and by 12Z-18Z Wed this should start showing up in the NAM range as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 No actually it wouldn't.. wtf cares about that POS Only care about models that show snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Pretty amazing actually to look back at the very first post of this thread to see that run from Feb 1... as Ginx put it, "GFS all in". Seems to have folded for now, but Euro is now back in the game keeping hope alive. I'm hoping Euro keeps this going so we at last can get a threat into the NAM range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Dude ... all you and Scooter ever do is find ways to make it snow more and longer in Eastern Mass and/or Cape Cod. Well played dude...well played. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Upton at this time thinks light accumulations are also possible Saturday: WITH THE SLOWER TIMING TO THE SHORTWAVE...IT ALLOWS FOR THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF IT...ALLOWING FOR THE SET UP OF A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE SHORTWAVE THEN INTERACTS WITH THIS...YIELDING A LOW S OF LONG ISLAND BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO NE AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ULTIMATELY BE IN PLAY OVER THE REGION...SO TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY CALL ON AMOUNTS. BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Chester MA at 1450 feet is hurting even there That's pretty much what it looks like here. The somewhat lower latitude in Chester is probably hurting them a bit compared to MPM. Not as bad here, but it still sucks. Here's the wide-open shade free 12 acres out back. Definitely a bit better than here. Your latitude is probably helping you a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 You're guilty of it too..except your fetish is the ORH hills and NO ORH cty LOL...didn't we go over this in the morning. We all care about our backyards. Not earth shattering that some one based in ORH cares about weather in ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The thing you don't really want to see and is also possible, is for the low to develop right along the front as it comes through. There would probably be some snow showers or a squall, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Only care about models that show snow. No..only care about good models with good skill scores Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 LOL...didn't we go over this in the morning. We all care about our backyards. Not earth shattering that some one based in ORH cares about weather in ORH. Everybody has a little imby syndrome...it's natural. There is nothing wrong with that. I fully admit I do. If I get rain and Ray gets a foot, I'll think about putting an IED under his Celica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 timestamp='1328649709' I also think Saturday will be a prime upslope day for the favored areas in WNE as moisture associated with the trof and the first cold front get pushed up against the Greens and Berks. The Euro and GFS have a second front (the arctic boundary) coming through on Sunday, which brings more love to usual places. The GFS actually stalls the arctic boundary over NNE and rips upslope all night Sunday night and into Monday for these areas. If GFS is right, there is going to be a major dumping of orographic snow for the Greens, and possibly even some here in the Berks as well. Even if the Euro is right, these areas will do well, but the GFS is extra special. The ski areas in WNE are going to be awesome this weekend. I love you man. I was talking about that a bit this morning as anytime we have an arctic front, good RH and a ton of vorticity and steep lapse rates...lookout. WINDEX type stuff is very good here too. Snowy weekend coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 No..only care about good models with good skill scores If I made a forecast that was only euro, and not a blend of anything else, I would not be all that great. Believe it or not, the GFS hasn't been too bad with QPF. Forecasting is an art. You have to think about everything and smooth it into a forecast. I'm not saying to lean towards the GFS by any means, but the fact that it's still saying "what storm" is a little concerning. As of now, since we are so far out, I don't think it warrants some sort of change in the forecast right now, based on either model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I only care what happens IMBY not anywhere else as far as i am concerned south of here does not exists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 If I made a forecast that was only euro, and not a blend of anything else, I would not be all that great. Believe it or not, the GFS hasn't been too bad with QPF. Forecasting is an art. You have to think about everything and smooth it into a forecast. I'm not saying to lean towards the GFS by any means, but the fact that it's still saying "what storm" is a little concerning. As of now, since we are so far out, I don't think it warrants some sort of change in the forecast right now, based on either model. But you guys always preach ens at this time frame. The Ens do have something...Obviously the Euro ens are better..but the GEFS have some members showing it..so I guess my question is why are we worried about the 18z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 But you guys always preach ens at this time frame. The Ens do have something...Obviously the Euro ens are better..but the GEFS have some members showing it..so I guess my question is why are we worried about the 18z GFS? The GEFS ensemble mean is pretty bad. So you have a major piece of guidance not buying it yet. At this stage, you probably would throw in a chance of snow showers or a period of light snow, but also recognize it may be just a fropa with limited precip. Honestly, neither piece of guidance really sways me at this point. Obviously having the euro op and euro ensembles show the possibility of some light snow is nice to see, but if models converge towards each other...than it's not really anything exciting for us, other than cold. It's early in the game. If the GFS makes a step towards the euro and the euro holds serve at the very least tonight, I'll feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 But you guys always preach ens at this time frame. The Ens do have something...Obviously the Euro ens are better..but the GEFS have some members showing it..so I guess my question is why are we worried about the 18z GFS? not just 18Z... past 24 hours of GFS runs have been consistent with overflexing confluence the trend has been undeniable but Euro is now somewhat more interesting so we'll see... as others have stated, key ingredients are there so i wouldn't write anything off, regardless of what euro shows tonight, until we're in 72-84 hrs of event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I treat as just another threat until models converge on an outcome, And if its positive bonus, If not eh, Status quo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I treat as just another threat until models converge on an outcome, And if its positive bonus, If not eh, Status quo Could be stratus quo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Could be stratus quo. Not worried, I am heading to Jackman, I know theres snow there.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 not just 18Z... past 24 hours of GFS runs have been consistent with overflexing confluence the trend has been undeniable but Euro is now somewhat more interesting so we'll see... as others have stated, key ingredients are there so i wouldn't write anything off, regardless of what euro shows tonight, until we're in 72-84 hrs of event Hows the NAM been this year? I think I've needed to look it for one storm in December.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I just got in ...quick look at the 18Z NAM and I think it is trending somewhat toward the Euro for the Saturday event. If I made a forecast that was only euro, and not a blend of anything else, I would not be all that great. Believe it or not, the GFS hasn't been too bad with QPF. Forecasting is an art. You have to think about everything and smooth it into a forecast. I'm not saying to lean towards the GFS by any means, but the fact that it's still saying "what storm" is a little concerning. As of now, since we are so far out, I don't think it warrants some sort of change in the forecast right now, based on either model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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