Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,587
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

The Feb 10-12 storm threat, real or imagined?


Ginx snewx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I agree with Phil..I'd like to see it dig deeper too to get a sfc reflectionalong the E side of the front which would def enhance the snow...but I'm not really looking for a full fledged miller B to get decent snow either...I think we can produce decently without it from the weak sfc reflection and LL convergence and the steep lapse rates...of course, I'll still be rooting for a low bombing out S of LI, but at least we don't need it to get some half decent snows in here...but it sure would be nice to have it. I never like relying on inverted trough stuff, but in this case the thermal gradient and lapse rates are so good, that it wouldn't take a perfect setup to get advisory snows.

Hopefully the northern stream doesn't trend crappier...if it flattens out or lifts north, then we'll probably be just left with some snow showers for 30-60 minutes....but I do think the overall trends have been on the more positive side.

Yeah we've had events like that before. I'm not big in the inv stuff either, but no sense of being picky in this winter. Part of the reason I'd like to see a stronger s/w is not just because of the surface reflection, but for an anafrontal band of snow that could happen with a good trough acting in a strong baroclinic area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I;m interior..just not the deep interior.

I don't throw that in your face.

There seems to be this Eastern Mass snow fetish on here from time to time..It's no biggie..but in a setup like this..all of SNE would get snow is all I'm saying

If we still had weenie tags, I would def weenie tag you for this comment.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, this is our chance, Nam is way south for tomorrow, lets hope this powderkeg gets lit, its been interesting yet horrifying seeing these s/w dampen out almost every single time on guidance radar and sat, all that despite very fertile waters just off our shores. Trough axis and a more zonal regime have really not let anything develop in our wheelhouse, this weekend will be the last straw, if it does not snow and is cold and le miz, its going to get ugly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BOX says it will be chilly

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

410 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2012

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-082115-

HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-

EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-

WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-

WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-

SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-

SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-

WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-

SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-

NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-

WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-

SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-

WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-

410 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN

CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN

MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN

MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW

HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF NEAR RECORD COLD AND

BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Big differences between the GFS and Euro in the D5-7 range at H5. Euro plunges the PV into NNE and brings us the coldest air of the season, while GFS keeps the PV way up north and brings us another run of the mill cold shot. If Euro verifies, Monday morning is easily a -10° F to -15° F type of affair here in the Berks with widespread sub -20° F (and quite possibly some sub -30° F) readings in NNE.

I also think Saturday will be a prime upslope day for the favored areas in WNE as moisture associated with the trof and the first cold front get pushed up against the Greens and Berks. The Euro and GFS have a second front (the arctic boundary) coming through on Sunday, which brings more love to usual places. The GFS actually stalls the arctic boundary over NNE and rips upslope all night Sunday night and into Monday for these areas. If GFS is right, there is going to be a major dumping of orographic snow for the Greens, and possibly even some here in the Berks as well. Even if the Euro is right, these areas will do well, but the GFS is extra special. The ski areas in WNE are going to be awesome this weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Big differences between the GFS and Euro in the D5-7 range at H5. Euro plunges the PV into NNE and brings us the coldest air of the season, while GFS keeps the PV way up north and brings us another run of the mill cold shot. If Euro verifies, Monday morning is easily a -10° F to -15° F type of affair here in the Berks with widespread sub -20° F (and quite possibly some sub -30° F) readings in NNE.

I also think Saturday will be a prime upslope day for the favored areas in WNE as moisture associated with the trof and the first cold front get pushed up against the Greens and Berks. The Euro and GFS have a second front (the arctic boundary) coming through on Sunday, which brings more love to usual places. The GFS actually stalls the arctic boundary over NNE and rips upslope all night Sunday night and into Monday for these areas. If GFS is right, there is going to be a major dumping of orographic snow for the Greens, and possibly even some here in the Berks as well. Even if the Euro is right, these areas will do well, but the GFS is extra special. The ski areas in WNE are going to be awesome this weekend.

I think I'm glad I was in QC last weekend instead of this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BOX says it will be chilly

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

410 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2012

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-082115-

HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-

EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-

WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-

WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-

SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-

SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-

WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-

SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-

NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-

WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-

SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-

WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-

410 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN

CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN

MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN

MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW

HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF NEAR RECORD COLD AND

BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

Forecast says "meh".

MAZ002-080915-

WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN...

SHELBURNE

421 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2012

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY. COLD.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND

BLUSTERY. COLD. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.

.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLD. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 20S. LOWS 10 TO 15.

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think I'm glad I was in QC last weekend instead of this.

Yes, definitely. The torch was brutal here. Lost all of our snow save for piles and patches in the woods and north facing areas. I was out in Albany on Saturday and there is zilch (not even piles or patches) once you go west of the Taconics. There was a very sharp cutoff right at the crest of the Taconics along the NY/MA line. West side was totally bare, east side had some snow. East side of the Berks seem to still have a solid snow cover. How much do you have there?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, definitely. The torch was brutal here. Lost all of our snow save for piles and patches in the woods and north facing areas. I was out in Albany on Saturday and there is zilch (not even piles or patches) once you go west of the Taconics. There was a very sharp cutoff right at the crest of the Taconics along the NY/MA line. West side was totally bare, east side had some snow. East side of the Berks seem to still have a solid snow cover. How much do you have there?

Chester MA at 1450 feet is hurting even there

2m3i8zm.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, definitely. The torch was brutal here. Lost all of our snow save for piles and patches in the woods and north facing areas. I was out in Albany on Saturday and there is zilch (not even piles or patches) once you go west of the Taconics. There was a very sharp cutoff right at the crest of the Taconics along the NY/MA line. West side was totally bare, east side had some snow. East side of the Berks seem to still have a solid snow cover. How much do you have there?

We have some patches of grass around trees and the like, but for the most part we have 2-3". Pathetic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...