dryslot Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Troughs have trended Less sharp and broader all year.. there is no reason to expect a sharper trough with this one.. actually I'm expecting a broader trough than it is now Thats a rather strong PV and should be able to dig further south, Its probably one of the best ones we have seen this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Is it a little delayed from yesterday's run in terms of bringing the PV down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I think the weekend storm could end up being the real deal, The trends over the last few runs have been a stronger development and further NW with the surface low the last few runs, IF we can get the trough sharper and digging further south should give us better low development at the surface and further south as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The baroclinicity available with that upper level energy is really high...so I think there is a good chance at an event this weekend...the Euro really tries to focus an inverted trough over the region and with lapse rates that good, I wouldn't be shocked if we saw some heavy snow out of it if the Euro solution pans out. Could be the type of thing were a general 1-3" falls but pockets of 4-6" could occur within that zone. We are still way too far out to talk about amounts in a serious manner, but at least it is showing some energy crossing over a high baroclinic zone which is what you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The baroclinicity available with that upper level energy is really high...so I think there is a good chance at an event this weekend...the Euro really tries to focus an inverted trough over the region and with lapse rates that good, I wouldn't be shocked if we saw some heavy snow out of it if the Euro solution pans out. Could be the type of thing were a general 1-3" falls but pockets of 4-6" could occur within that zone. We are still way too far out to talk about amounts in a serious manner, but at least it is showing some energy crossing over a high baroclinic zone which is what you want to see. This is about as nude as I've seen you since Helloween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The baroclinicity available with that upper level energy is really high...so I think there is a good chance at an event this weekend...the Euro really tries to focus an inverted trough over the region and with lapse rates that good, I wouldn't be shocked if we saw some heavy snow out of it if the Euro solution pans out. Could be the type of thing were a general 1-3" falls but pockets of 4-6" could occur within that zone. We are still way too far out to talk about amounts in a serious manner, but at least it is showing some energy crossing over a high baroclinic zone which is what you want to see. That inv trough would be like 25:1..lol. I'd like to see a little deeper and more defined vortmax, but potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The baroclinicity available with that upper level energy is really high...so I think there is a good chance at an event this weekend...the Euro really tries to focus an inverted trough over the region and with lapse rates that good, I wouldn't be shocked if we saw some heavy snow out of it if the Euro solution pans out. Could be the type of thing were a general 1-3" falls but pockets of 4-6" could occur within that zone. We are still way too far out to talk about amounts in a serious manner, but at least it is showing some energy crossing over a high baroclinic zone which is what you want to see. certainly some reason for optimism on those euro charts. i just want to see that energy remain intact and dig SE and not get strung out and lift up and out. if the pocket of voriticity can remain tight and act on that thermal gradient we should get something more interesting than a fropa. i hope the euro has the right idea and it doesn't move toward the GFS. i have a hard time trusting it right now like i used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Euro ensembles look like they develop the low overhead and then it moves due east. A little too far north for my liking in terms of synoptic snow availability, but maybe some inv trough stuff. Still way early for details, however. The H5 trough looks to be in a relatively favorable position for something a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Let's get the Euro straight: 1"-3" for most of us... followed by 1 days of balls deep cold... followed by a Lakes Cutter. Sounds like winter 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Euro ensembles look like they develop the low overhead and then it moves due east. A little too far north for my liking in terms of synoptic snow availability, but maybe some inv trough stuff. Still way early for details, however. The H5 trough looks to be in a relatively favorable position for something a little better. wonder if that's a handful of members leaning toward the op and a handful leaning something closer to the gfs/gefs type of evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Let's get the Euro straight: 1"-3" for most of us... followed by 1 days of balls deep cold... followed by a Lakes Cutter. Sounds like winter 2011-2012. in this winter, you take any snow you can get. unless you are cheering on crappy records...in which case, gfy. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 wonder if that's a handful of members leaning toward the op and a handful leaning something closer to the gfs/gefs type of evolution I don't see too much spread. It looks like the euro op is the more bullish compared to the members when looking at H5. Just looks like a wave develops along the front and then moves east. But, like you mentioned as well...I'd like to see a more defined and concentrated vortmax a little further south, otherwise it's a narrow shield of QPF running se-ne instead of getting pulled back further nw. The vortmax approaching is a little strung out right now, but that could change as we get closer I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 Hey when is Pete due back, anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I'm not expecting a big miller B storm from this..I'm expecting inverted trough and FROPA snow...but sometimes with that type of thermal gradient, we can over produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I'm not expecting a big miller B storm from this..I'm expecting inverted trough and FROPA snow...but sometimes with that type of thermal gradient, we can over produce. Agreed, but we could get some enhancement if we can get a surface low to develop along the front. I'm pulling for Kevin on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I'm not expecting a big miller B storm from this..I'm expecting inverted trough and FROPA snow...but sometimes with that type of thermal gradient, we can over produce. yeah i don't need to see a secondary bombing E of cape may...but also don't want to see it struggling to happen until it's in the GOM...don't want to end up with a surface trough pointing toward dryslot (no offense maine crowd). that euro evolution would be just fine for getting some snows into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Can one infer from the euro op that the combination of high RH values and cold temps in the presence of a moderate storm would produce substantial snows for ACK and the outer Cape verbatum? Sure seems we could get one of those storms where we get buried and areas 50 miles to our NW get a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I'm not expecting a big miller B storm from this..I'm expecting inverted trough and FROPA snow...but sometimes with that type of thermal gradient, we can over produce. I think Phil has a point, about the arctic boundary possibly helping to produce some heavier snow showers and possible squalls perhaps as it comes through. Maybe some inv trough stuff if it's sharp enough. Possibly even a strip of snow behind the front, from frontogenesis, but that depends on how sharp the s/w is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I'm just going to continue to linger in the background and hope for the best. Kind of like I am today--enjoying the weenie flakes as they try in futilitily to build up the snow cover. At least the fields continue to be ensconsed in snow, even if it's not fresh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 yeah i don't need to see a secondary bombing E of cape may...but also don't want to see it struggling to happen until it's in the GOM...don't want to end up with a surface trough pointing toward dryslot (no offense maine crowd). that euro evolution would be just fine for getting some snows into the region. lol, I actually would like to see it develop sooner as well, Around LI would work........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 yeah i don't need to see a secondary bombing E of cape may...but also don't want to see it struggling to happen until it's in the GOM...don't want to end up with a surface trough pointing toward dryslot (no offense maine crowd). that euro evolution would be just fine for getting some snows into the region. Yeah some mood snows anyways. Still have 4.5 days or so to resolve this either way. I do like the depiction of energy diving south from Canada because sometimes that isn't modeled strong enough until it gets into good RAOB sampling, but that's not a certain thing either, it doesn't always happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I'm just going to continue to linger in the background and hope for the best. Kind of like I am today--enjoying the weenie flakes as they try in futilitily to build up the snow cover. At least the fields continue to be ensconsed in snow, even if it's not fresh. Welcome back, You missed nothing while you were gone.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Can one infer from the euro op that the combination of high RH values and cold temps in the presence of a moderate storm would produce substantial snows for ACK and the outer Cape verbatum? Sure seems we could get one of those storms where we get buried and areas 50 miles to our NW get a dusting. euro would imply an inch or two for you tomorrow night actually. weekend..who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 yeah i don't need to see a secondary bombing E of cape may...but also don't want to see it struggling to happen until it's in the GOM...don't want to end up with a surface trough pointing toward dryslot (no offense maine crowd). that euro evolution would be just fine for getting some snows into the region. Dude ... all you and Scooter ever do is find ways to make it snow more and longer in Eastern Mass and/or Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 euro would imply an inch or two for you tomorrow night actually. weekend..who knows. What a shame for tomorrow night. That's a nice looking vortmax. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Dude ... all you and Scooter ever do is find ways to make it snow more and longer in Eastern Mass and/or Cape Cod. Yeah we are heavily biased into finding every way that it snows in eastern areas through next Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Yeah we are heavily biased into finding every way that it snows in eastern areas through next Monday. Screw everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Dude ... all you and Scooter ever do is find ways to make it snow more and longer in Eastern Mass and/or Cape Cod. Can you blame them? Poor Scooter has had like 9" all year, if that. Phil never gets real snow anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I think Phil has a point, about the arctic boundary possibly helping to produce some heavier snow showers and possible squalls perhaps as it comes through. Maybe some inv trough stuff if it's sharp enough. Possibly even a strip of snow behind the front, from frontogenesis, but that depends on how sharp the s/w is. I agree with Phil..I'd like to see it dig deeper too to get a sfc reflectionalong the E side of the front which would def enhance the snow...but I'm not really looking for a full fledged miller B to get decent snow either...I think we can produce decently without it from the weak sfc reflection and LL convergence and the steep lapse rates...of course, I'll still be rooting for a low bombing out S of LI, but at least we don't need it to get some half decent snows in here...but it sure would be nice to have it. I never like relying on inverted trough stuff, but in this case the thermal gradient and lapse rates are so good, that it wouldn't take a perfect setup to get advisory snows. Hopefully the northern stream doesn't trend crappier...if it flattens out or lifts north, then we'll probably be just left with some snow showers for 30-60 minutes....but I do think the overall trends have been on the more positive side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Welcome back, You missed nothing while you were gone.... Between my drive from QC to home on Sunday and today's roundtrip to Manchester and back, I consider myself a truely rare species to have snow cover in February. How bizarre a concept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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