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The Feb 10-12 storm threat, real or imagined?


Ginx snewx

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Tomorrows storm?

Tomorrow night. If the low doesn't slide further se, I won't be shocked at some light snows for s cstl areas. Not expecting much, but when s/w's are healthy looking, sometimes the nrn edge of the snow can be a little further north and more robust than QPF shows. If it slides further south then forget it, but I'd sort of keep an eye on it, from say Joe over to Phil's area.

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Tomorrow night. If the low doesn't slide further se, I won't be shocked at some light snows for s cstl areas. Not expecting much, but when s/w's are healthy looking, sometimes the nrn edge of the snow can be a little further north and more robust than QPF shows. If it slides further south then forget it, but I'd sort of keep an eye on it, from say Joe over to Phil's area.

S/W looks actually a little better this run. Less w-e flow up this way and the s/w tries to go negative off the Delmarva. Might be too little too late, but could bring light snows to the south coast.

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I feel a certain sense of detachment from the whole snow threat situation now... I guess I'm emotionally spent after so many false alarms. LOL

Last night's 0Z GFS looked pretty nice through 384, but part of you just senses that it will all evaporate on this new 12Z run.

But we should know soon..and then there is the Euro...............

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GFS is horrible looking still for this weekend.

amazing how squashed the shortwave out of the gulf has trended compared to just a day ago... not even close to interacting with the northern stream

all we're left with is a dry-looking fropa and the energy rotating around the trough develops way too late

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Imagine if there was snow otg :snowman:

That would be an entirely different and joyous situation, could actually do something with the kids like sled and enjoy a snowy night by the firepit. Perhaps I can convince the wife to hang by the firepit anyways, 0 degree temps howling winds, play toss the kids on the frozen ground.

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LOL, -20 to -30F for Vim Toot?

Yeah, Tim Kelley and I were just discussing that on the lift... the MOS guidance really isn't reflecting just how cold of an airmass that could be. This weekend could be just a brutal cold, windy, dry weekend if you are north of that arctic front. Lapse rates look pretty steep from SFC to H85 and that means orographic snow showers and squalls.

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