Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,587
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

The Feb 10-12 storm threat, real or imagined?


Ginx snewx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

were you not around 96-97...? that might have been even more of a stunner

i love to spin that legendary yarn for boston newcomers

'59-'60 was actually a bit worse than '96-'97 for the Boston turnaround in terms of how bad the winter was before it..though '97 takes the cake for how late it happened.

But BOS had like 19" on the season before the 1960 storm and then got 20" in that 1960 storm (then a couple more after that)...so their winter had actually been worse than 1996-1997 leading up to it...BOS in 1996-1997 had 26.5" before the blizzard. But how late it was definitely would be more of a shock value than the other one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36" on my apartment porch in Gardner April 1

But I guess that winter was not abysmal prior to that. I had thought it was but I was wrong

The interior hills had the December 1996 Cantore storms earlier that winter while the coast mostly had cold heavy rain. The winter between the Cantore storm and the blizzard really was terrible though...but its hard to exclude two amazing storms.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Matt Noyes knows how to deflate a weenie:

8 to 14 Day Forecast: Most of Eastern U.S. to turn colder next week, above normal precipitation - New England may be exempt from both

Sometimes it's worth to read more than the headlines.

At this point, it's early to speak with certainty on fine details like this, so the wisest move is to indicate above-normal precipitation on the cold (and therefore, likely snowy) side of the storm, as well as the areas where heavy rain seems likely (I-95 corridor of Mid-Atlantic/Southeast) but hedge near-normal in Central and Southern New England, where the final outcome is a bit more uncertain

Link to comment
Share on other sites

lol, gfs looks like the nam nice area of light to occasionally moderate snow into the ma, then transfers but too far offshore, would have rather the energy come in weaker and never redeveloped, would have loved a coating to inch, not over yet but seems anything that goes against snow around sne does indeed happen. Ugh.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sometimes it's worth to read more than the headlines.

At this point, it's early to speak with certainty on fine details like this, so the wisest move is to indicate above-normal precipitation on the cold (and therefore, likely snowy) side of the storm, as well as the areas where heavy rain seems likely (I-95 corridor of Mid-Atlantic/Southeast) but hedge near-normal in Central and Southern New England, where the final outcome is a bit more uncertain

Oh, I read it.

I check out his tweets (and Tim Kelley's) quite often. It was a depressing headline.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The futility record would make for wx worth discussing, although I can't get excited about such a discussion.

I'm all for tracking what the models spit out, but as we all know, model runs a few days out can still be off by more than a couple miles and a bunch of inches or none at all.

February is not done, and stuff can change - the 10 day may look dry or white or wet, and we all know that 10 day model runs are worth - just a discussion. And I'm gonna follow them, and hope that something will happen.

Cold Miser needs a bigger snowblower - a good machine would have devoured more than just his head.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Classic Heather A storm with a +NAO to -NAO transition before truncation. What a beautiful setup on the GFS this run.

Yeah that is pretty classic Archambault event look there...we'll have to see what happens. Its pretty hard to have this type of extreme regime shift and get nothing at all...esp if the NAO decides to go negative before the PNA breaks down.

Again, I posted back that this is murphy's law winter where everyone in the mid-latitudes except us is getting hammered....but we may finally have a shot. Certainly still a long shot as it is though...but a long shot is still a shot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah that is pretty classic Archambault event look there...we'll have to see what happens. Its pretty hard to have this type of extreme regime shift and get nothing at all...esp if the NAO decides to go negative before the PNA breaks down.

Again, I posted back that this is murphy's law winter where everyone in the mid-latitudes except us is getting hammered....but we may finally have a shot. Certainly still a long shot as it is though...but a long shot is still a shot.

Sometimes these dud winters have a nice period where all the "planets align" like 2005-06. Now that the MJO modeling has gotten a clue and teams up with the changes that have already taken place with the state of the AO, the threat levels for winter storms go up for the East Coast.

Unfortunately in dud winters, this is going to come along with the usual nagging from the unintelligent poster who insists that because something happened before the possible threat to kill a snow threat that now suddenly this potential will not occur. The weather doesn't care what happened in December or January, if conditions become favorable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Right on schedule, we have our day 10 storm to follow for the next 5 days. Wash rinse repeat

I like you, so I am only going to give you a warning. Quit with the non-science so that I don't have to deal with more trolling in the future from unintelligent followers who don't get that you are being funny!

:P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sometimes these dud winters have a nice period where all the "planets align" like 2005-06. Now that the MJO modeling has gotten a clue and teams up with the changes that have already taken place with the state of the AO, the threat levels for winter storms go up for the East Coast.

Unfortunately in dud winters, this is going to come along with the usual nagging from the unintelligent poster who insists that because something happened before the possible threat to kill a snow threat that now suddenly this potential will not occur. The weather doesn't care what happened in December or January, if conditions become favorable.

Kudos for nailing this period of absolutely embarrassing NWP guidance performance...I made a reference in the M.A. thread a few minutes ago, but this is has definitely been some of the worst continuity I've ever seen in the D5-7 range (nevermind the long range ensemble guidance) since back in my college days when we didn't even pay attention beyond D5 anyway.

Just horrific...can't wait to see how bad the scores come out in this period, but you nailed it saying how bad it would be. I think its worse than last year's transition too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kudos for nailing this period of absolutely embarrassing NWP guidance performance...I made a reference in the M.A. thread a few minutes ago, but this is has definitely been some of the worst continuity I've ever seen in the D5-7 range (nevermind the long range ensemble guidance) since back in my college days when we didn't even pay attention beyond D5 anyway.

Just horrific...can't wait to see how bad the scores come out in this period, but you nailed it saying how bad it would be. I think its worse than last year's transition too.

Thanks Will. I can't wait to see the stats too. It has a challenge going up against last year's transition. But it is so bad right now, I wouldn't even trust Wednesday's evolution (minor Mid Atlantic wave).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...