ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Oh I completely agree with you... the term "threat" gets tossed around way to easily here so sometimes I can see when it might be hard to see the difference between a real threat and some rouge model run that shows something favorable. The hardest part about posting about storm threats in the medium range is that you really have to use probabilistic forecasting...but the average weenie doesn't want to hear about probabilities...they just want a straight yes or no answer on a storm. A bust or verification is solely based on the snow in their backyard many times. I know a lot of the seasoned amateurs on here know better, but we still have plenty of posters who are still learning the tough nature of ensemble and probabilistic forecasting in the medium range. We can have a monster shift in the whole global pattern like we have seen already (I mean just look at the ridiculous height anomalies in the arctic with the death PV torn to shreds) and it doesn't guarantee us snow or even cold...on average it really increases our chances at a cold/snowy pattern but as has been shown in '05-'06 and right now, you can be left in the sucker hole in the mid-latitudes sometimes while everyone else around the globe in the mid-latitudes in Europe/Asia/Japan/northern Africa is seeing epic winter weather. We could still see something great out of this pattern, but its never a guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2012 Author Share Posted February 6, 2012 The hardest part about posting about storm threats in the medium range is that you really have to use probabilistic forecasting...but the average weenie doesn't want to hear about probabilities...they just want a straight yes or no answer on a storm. A bust or verification is solely based on the snow in their backyard many times. I know a lot of the seasoned amateurs on here know better, but we still have plenty of posters who are still learning the tough nature of ensemble and probabilistic forecasting in the medium range. We can have a monster shift in the whole global pattern like we have seen already (I mean just look at the ridiculous height anomalies in the arctic with the death PV torn to shreds) and it doesn't guarantee us snow or even cold...on average it really increases our chances at a cold/snowy pattern but as has been shown in '05-'06 and right now, you can be left in the sucker hole in the mid-latitudes sometimes while everyone else around the globe in the mid-latitudes in Europe/Asia/Japan/northern Africa is seeing epic winter weather. We could still see something great out of this pattern, but its never a guarantee. Perfectly stated, as you pointed out the pattern is much more conducive this week ahead than it has been all winter. Need some timing and luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 18z nam is south on Wednesday, has the d-1" more in S NJ/C PA rather then up in CT/RI/ N PA like 12z had. Either way its not a big deal though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Soooo nice out today!! Sunny and 40s. Birds are singing, snow is being transformed into rivers down the street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Soooo nice out today!! Sunny and 40s. Birds are singing, snow is being transformed into rivers down the street. banter thread please or one of Joe's sauna threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 anyone here who looks at models is in "science" one way or another, but I regress. The point being the pattern does not support a strong east coast low. You quoted my post that was merely repeating the warnings I've made about the modeling to tell me the pattern isn't going to support a snowstorm. So I said that's great because I don't care. Actual operational forecasters who are responsible for certain forecasts for certain areas (like me for example and not you) are going to have to deal with these model issues (like what happened in Maryland on Satuday). And while we're at it, let me make my stance perfectly clear because this is how dumb things get perpetuated throughout the forum (e.g. the "HM storm"): Several meteorologists, including myself, found this period as interesting from a long range perspective. That's it; it's as simple as that. Everyone is well aware of the warm / snowless and progressive pattern and no one is adament about a big snowstorm. I am just keeping things cool because the modeling is going to be waaaay off during this time (which I explained in the AAM thread). If you think I am calling for a KU storm or massive cold pattern change etc etc. then there is nothing I can say except that you took my words way out of context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 You quoted my post that was merely repeating the warnings I've made about the modeling to tell me the pattern isn't going to support a snowstorm. So I said that's great because I don't care. Actual operational forecasters who are responsible for certain forecasts for certain areas (like me for example and not you) are going to have to deal with these model issues (like what happened in Maryland on Satuday). And while we're at it, let me make my stance perfectly clear because this is how dumb things get perpetuated throughout the forum (e.g. the "HM storm"): Several meteorologists, including myself, found this period as interesting from a long range perspective. That's it; it's as simple as that. Everyone is well aware of the warm / snowless and progressive pattern and no one is adament about a big snowstorm. I am just keeping things cool because the modeling is going to be waaaay off during this time (which I explained in the AAM thread). If you think I am calling for a KU storm or massive cold pattern change etc etc. then there is nothing I can say except that you took my words way out of context. ignore him HM, he isn't worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2012 Author Share Posted February 6, 2012 You quoted my post that was merely repeating the warnings I've made about the modeling to tell me the pattern isn't going to support a snowstorm. So I said that's great because I don't care. Actual operational forecasters who are responsible for certain forecasts for certain areas (like me for example and not you) are going to have to deal with these model issues (like what happened in Maryland on Satuday). And while we're at it, let me make my stance perfectly clear because this is how dumb things get perpetuated throughout the forum (e.g. the "HM storm"): Several meteorologists, including myself, found this period as interesting from a long range perspective. That's it; it's as simple as that. Everyone is well aware of the warm / snowless and progressive pattern and no one is adament about a big snowstorm. I am just keeping things cool because the modeling is going to be waaaay off during this time (which I explained in the AAM thread). If you think I am calling for a KU storm or massive cold pattern change etc etc. then there is nothing I can say except that you took my words way out of context. The guy is a troll dude, just ignore him. Hopefully we can get some breaks to get a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It does look like the models are trying to target more nrn stream energy and closing off the Gulf. I think we need to root for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I don't know how Noreaster69 is allowed to post. He does nothing but post nonsense and quick troll posts..and mostly just trolls mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It does appear it's going to snow at least 2x this week. I'm looking forward to both Wed night and more importantly Sat/Sun timeframe. Nice to see the Euro ens so juiced and near the BM..this is one of those old days stroms where it disappears off models and then comes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It does appear it's going to snow at least 2x this week. I'm looking forward to both Wed night and more importantly Sat/Sun timeframe. Nice to see the Euro ens so juiced and near the BM..this is one of those old days stroms where it disappears off models and then comes back. I think Wednesday is really nothing much at all. This weekend is still sort of threading the needle, but should be watched. I'm not excited yet, and it's not really a BM storm. It just starts to get organized near the BM..a little too late for us as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 GFS has some light snow for Wednesday. Like .01-.05 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I think Wednesday is really nothing much at all. This weekend is still sort of threading the needle, but should be watched. I'm not excited yet, and it's not really a BM storm. It just starts to get organized near the BM..a little too late for us as of now. Wed nite seems to be more a south of the pike deal..though i suspect that comes north some...I could see widespread 1 inch amts..maybe iso 2. The weekend deal as Will pointed does look decent on the Euro ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Pretty nice runs today. Will be nice to track something. FYI the disconnect with Ray misunderstanding my giving up on the totality of winter yet track future individual storms is understandable. I just can not grasp how a snow lover would seek a futility record Feb 6 th. FYI the disconnect with you misunderstanding my rooting on futility, yet ok with substantial 6"+ events is understandable. If I'm not going to see a major event, then I'd rather set a record....you know, we are all here on this forum because we enjoy ANOMALOUS weather, which futility is...whether folks want to acknowledge it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Wed nite seems to be more a south of the pike deal..though i suspect that comes north some...I could see widespread 1 inch amts..maybe iso 2. The weekend deal as Will pointed does look decent on the Euro ens. It looks ok right now, but it needs to get its act together quicker, or it's more a OES s shore and Cape deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I think Wednesday is really nothing much at all. This weekend is still sort of threading the needle, but should be watched. I'm not excited yet, and it's not really a BM storm. It just starts to get organized near the BM..a little too late for us as of now. This is the type of winter where you don't expect anything to pan out that is marginal, but we've seen it before like the Feb 25, 1999 storm. That was a good example of "too many cooks in the kitchen" setup that managed to work out for a good chunk of the region...I'm sure we would have been pessimistic during that setup too. I'm hoping the northern stream digs enough which means we'll have to root for really extreme meridional flow as we get closer. Even a 2-4" powder on a late developing storm (inverted trough) would be something interesting to track. Probably the one thing we have working in our favor looking at guidance (other than the strong meridional flow) is that they really have no clue how to handle it so its a situation where we won't necessarily have to throw in the towel if we aren't seeing huge solutions...probably not until it becomes obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 18z gfs doesn't have anything. Not really that surprising, 12z was the first run that really showed anything meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 This is the type of winter where you don't expect anything to pan out that is marginal, but we've seen it before like the Feb 25, 1999 storm. That was a good example of "too many cooks in the kitchen" setup that managed to work out for a good chunk of the region...I'm sure we would have been pessimistic during that setup too. I'm hoping the northern stream digs enough which means we'll have to root for really extreme meridional flow as we get closer. Even a 2-4" powder on a late developing storm (inverted trough) would be something interesting to track. Probably the one thing we have working in our favor looking at guidance (other than the strong meridional flow) is that they really have no clue how to handle it so its a situation where we won't necessarily have to throw in the towel if we aren't seeing huge solutions...probably not until it becomes obvious. That's the one thing that I usually like in our favor. While I'm not excited about this right now, we usually can do ok with nrn stream energy diving south. What I mean by that, is it seems like guidance usually gets a little stronger with that, as data is sampled approaching the event. It easily could be nothing and we know how this winter has gone, but something to watch. We'll have a cold front in the vicinity so good baroclinic energy will be around. Also watch that ridge in wrn Canada. That will be key as to how meridional the flow will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 This is the type of winter where you don't expect anything to pan out that is marginal, but we've seen it before like the Feb 25, 1999 storm. That was a good example of "too many cooks in the kitchen" setup that managed to work out for a good chunk of the region...I'm sure we would have been pessimistic during that setup too. I'm hoping the northern stream digs enough which means we'll have to root for really extreme meridional flow as we get closer. Even a 2-4" powder on a late developing storm (inverted trough) would be something interesting to track. Probably the one thing we have working in our favor looking at guidance (other than the strong meridional flow) is that they really have no clue how to handle it so its a situation where we won't necessarily have to throw in the towel if we aren't seeing huge solutions...probably not until it becomes obvious. 1999 was awesome for the Cape; 20-24" fell there. Biig cutoff low also... http://www.meteo.psu...1999/us0225.php http://www.meteo.psu...1999/us0226.php I wonder what the NAO state was and AO state was.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 18z gfs doesn't have anything. Not really that surprising, 12z was the first run that really showed anything meaningful. It shows something on the 18th. An inland soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It shows something on the 18th. An inland soaker. lol yup...60F and downpours. We haven't even had that this year. Just day after day after day of 45F and sunny. This winter has been like a never ending late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 lol yup...60F and downpours. We haven't even had that this year. Just day after day after day of 45F and sunny. This winter has been like a never ending late March. We have had several bouts of 34F and drizzle or 38 F and rain, but no warm soakers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 18z Ensemble members aren't too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 18z Ensemble members aren't too bad. A lot of them are still trying to get gulf moisture involved...what a cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Here we go...whheeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 A lot of them are still trying to get gulf moisture involved...what a cluster. I know it. Somewhat intriguing to see some members a little more juicy than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Perhaps I am totally lost, but the 18z looked pretty close to a full latitude phased bomb (the potential was there) tweak with the pv, energy in Mexico, what a beautiful airmass to work with, a rich baroclinic zone, love to see the ridge out west sharpen up just a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Here we go...whheeeeee LESCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 FYI the disconnect with you misunderstanding my rooting on futility, yet ok with substantial 6"+ events is understandable. If I'm not going to see a major event, then I'd rather set a record....you know, we are all here on this forum because we enjoy ANOMALOUS weather, which futility is...whether folks want to acknowledge it or not. I know very few want anomalous low snow and could care less, perhaps the most useless anomalous weather . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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