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The Feb 10-12 storm threat, real or imagined?


Ginx snewx

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Interesting the guidance today...focusing more on the northern stream into a pseudo Miller B/inverted trough attempt for the Feb 11 threat.

I thought it was a pretty cool little piece of energy that dropped under us, take anything at this point. Euro still coatings to an inch wed night?

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I thought it was a pretty cool little piece of energy that dropped under us, take anything at this point. Euro still coatings to an inch wed night?

Wed night is mostly south verbatim this run, but its still def there to track...tries to blow it up offshore more. I don't expect much from it, but I could see it giving a light snow to a lot of people in the end...I wouldn't expect more than an inch though...maybe 2 if lucky for someone.

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Interesting the guidance today...focusing more on the northern stream into a pseudo Miller B/inverted trough attempt for the Feb 11 threat.

It's interesting for sure, but Will, how many damn times have we seen the models do this year??? If can remember, you have said "potential mini Miller B threat" at least 7-8 times this year, none of which have worked out.

Its looking more and more like we're cold and dry for the foreseeable future unless something drastic changes on the models (which is very possible since they suck this year)

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Sound slike Euro would be more widepsread than just Cape. I can't recall a norlun that only hit the south coast and noone else

It gives measurable to everyone for the weekend, but the highest is over the cape and S RI/S CT...but it would probably be a light powdery snow for like a day straight that might add up to an inch or two for some...the details are changing every run though. I'd probably want to try and turn it into a mini-Miller B if we are going to get something more substantial.

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It's interesting for sure, but Will, how many damn times have we seen the models do this year??? If can remember, you have said "potential mini Miller B threat" at least 7-8 times this year, none of which have worked out.

Its looking more and more like we're cold and dry for the foreseeable future unless something drastic changes on the models (which is very possible since they suck this year)

12z gfs switches us to warm and wet next week. Yippee!

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It's interesting for sure, but Will, how many damn times have we seen the models do this year??? If can remember, you have said "potential mini Miller B threat" at least 7-8 times this year, none of which have worked out.

Its looking more and more like we're cold and dry for the foreseeable future unless something drastic changes on the models (which is very possible since they suck this year)

You'd have to point out those 7-8 threats...I don't remember them. But you may have mistaken me mentioning the type of setup a certain pattern might promote rather than an actual threat. That's the trouble with trying to mention what type of events a potential pattern might support...they can be taken as actual threats.

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You'd have to point out those 7-8 threats...I don't remember them. But you may have mistaken me mentioning the type of setup a certain pattern might promote rather than an actual threat. That's the trouble with trying to mention what type of events a potential pattern might support...they can be taken as actual threats.

That's a big problem this year. I think we've mentioned that it's just a threat.

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You'd have to point out those 7-8 threats...I don't remember them. But you may have mistaken me mentioning the type of setup a certain pattern might promote rather than an actual threat. That's the trouble with trying to mention what type of events a potential pattern might support...they can be taken as actual threats.

Well there is always rouge model runs trying to show snow out at that time-frame... I know what he's saying. There haven't been many legit threats but I feel like there's been a bunch of about the same time frame out past 7 days that we talk about on here in passing. Like oh, the 12z ECM has a threat at Day 8, then it loses it... or the GGEM has a threat at day 7, etc.

The whole winter has been talk of "threats" when nothing pans out.

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Close to something a lot better. Nice that it develops along arctic front so plenty of cold around too.

Yeah that looks pretty nice...mean low over the BM at 120 hours with some isobars poking back to the NW...tighten that up a bit and we would have a pretty sizable event on our hands. We'll def want that meridional flow to be as amplified as possible as we get closer to get the northern stream energy to dig underneath us with enough room to wrap something into it.

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Well there is always rouge model runs trying to show snow out at that time-frame... I know what he's saying. There haven't been many legit threats but I feel like there's been a bunch of about the same time frame out past 7 days that we talk about on here in passing. Like oh, the 12z ECM has a threat at Day 8, then it loses it... or the GGEM has a threat at day 7, etc.

The whole winter has been talk of "threats" when nothing pans out.

People shouldn't get emotionally invested in D7 threats. Shame on them if they do...you are usually setting yourself up for disappointment.

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Well there is always rouge model runs trying to show snow out at that time-frame... I know what he's saying. There haven't been many legit threats but I feel like there's been a bunch of about the same time frame out past 7 days that we talk about on here in passing. Like oh, the 12z ECM has a threat at Day 8, then it loses it... or the GGEM has a threat at day 7, etc.

The whole winter has been talk of "threats" when nothing pans out.

Well this is for Saturday (day 5) according to the euro and its ensembles...but the gfs had it for Sunday night. So if this even happens there is timing to work out considering the gfs basically had this "event" happening 30 hours later then the euro.

edit: Looking at it again its not that far off. The gfs is a little slower but not as major as I thought.

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People shouldn't get emotionally invested in D7 threats. Shame on them if they do...you are usually setting yourself up for disappointment.

Oh I completely agree with you... the term "threat" gets tossed around way to easily here so sometimes I can see when it might be hard to see the difference between a real threat and some rouge model run that shows something favorable.

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