dryslot Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Then the euro drops the PV into the Great Lakes..lol. Bad timing in a good situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Euro looks a tad cold sunday into monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Its snow here @ hr 126 but light stuff, This far out it does not matter much and would worry about precip, Lets just get a low going and go from there For the love of God, let's just get something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Interesting the guidance today...focusing more on the northern stream into a pseudo Miller B/inverted trough attempt for the Feb 11 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 For the love of God, let's just get something to track. So that the Debbie d's can talk about how it won't happen and they'll hump spring and futility some more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Interesting the guidance today...focusing more on the northern stream into a pseudo Miller B/inverted trough attempt for the Feb 11 threat. I thought it was a pretty cool little piece of energy that dropped under us, take anything at this point. Euro still coatings to an inch wed night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Sound slike Euro would be more widepsread than just Cape. I can't recall a norlun that only hit the south coast and noone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I thought it was a pretty cool little piece of energy that dropped under us, take anything at this point. Euro still coatings to an inch wed night? Wed night is mostly south verbatim this run, but its still def there to track...tries to blow it up offshore more. I don't expect much from it, but I could see it giving a light snow to a lot of people in the end...I wouldn't expect more than an inch though...maybe 2 if lucky for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Interesting the guidance today...focusing more on the northern stream into a pseudo Miller B/inverted trough attempt for the Feb 11 threat. It's interesting for sure, but Will, how many damn times have we seen the models do this year??? If can remember, you have said "potential mini Miller B threat" at least 7-8 times this year, none of which have worked out. Its looking more and more like we're cold and dry for the foreseeable future unless something drastic changes on the models (which is very possible since they suck this year) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Interesting the guidance today...focusing more on the northern stream into a pseudo Miller B/inverted trough attempt for the Feb 11 threat. Would be good if we could only tap some of that moisture down south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Sound slike Euro would be more widepsread than just Cape. I can't recall a norlun that only hit the south coast and noone else It gives measurable to everyone for the weekend, but the highest is over the cape and S RI/S CT...but it would probably be a light powdery snow for like a day straight that might add up to an inch or two for some...the details are changing every run though. I'd probably want to try and turn it into a mini-Miller B if we are going to get something more substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The Euro totally lost the torch.....obliterated it. Enormous differences in one OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 For the love of God, let's just get something to track. Seems like we have been tracking systems that are 6-7 days out every day thiis winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It's interesting for sure, but Will, how many damn times have we seen the models do this year??? If can remember, you have said "potential mini Miller B threat" at least 7-8 times this year, none of which have worked out. Its looking more and more like we're cold and dry for the foreseeable future unless something drastic changes on the models (which is very possible since they suck this year) 12z gfs switches us to warm and wet next week. Yippee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It's interesting for sure, but Will, how many damn times have we seen the models do this year??? If can remember, you have said "potential mini Miller B threat" at least 7-8 times this year, none of which have worked out. Its looking more and more like we're cold and dry for the foreseeable future unless something drastic changes on the models (which is very possible since they suck this year) You'd have to point out those 7-8 threats...I don't remember them. But you may have mistaken me mentioning the type of setup a certain pattern might promote rather than an actual threat. That's the trouble with trying to mention what type of events a potential pattern might support...they can be taken as actual threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 You'd have to point out those 7-8 threats...I don't remember them. But you may have mistaken me mentioning the type of setup a certain pattern might promote rather than an actual threat. That's the trouble with trying to mention what type of events a potential pattern might support...they can be taken as actual threats. That's a big problem this year. I think we've mentioned that it's just a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 2-4" would be good for the soul, right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 2-4" would be good for the soul, right about now. A little soul food? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 2-4" would be good for the soul, right about now. this is true. maybe a couple of opportunities for some of the area this week. hopefully these trend juicier/NW a bit so most of the region can get in on some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Euro ensembles definitely want to be more Miller B like with a piece of nrn stream energy swinging around the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Close to something a lot better. Nice that it develops along arctic front so plenty of cold around too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Close to something a lot better. Nice that it develops along arctic front so plenty of cold around too. When was our last miller B? 1/12? What about before that storm? Just Wondering.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 You'd have to point out those 7-8 threats...I don't remember them. But you may have mistaken me mentioning the type of setup a certain pattern might promote rather than an actual threat. That's the trouble with trying to mention what type of events a potential pattern might support...they can be taken as actual threats. Well there is always rouge model runs trying to show snow out at that time-frame... I know what he's saying. There haven't been many legit threats but I feel like there's been a bunch of about the same time frame out past 7 days that we talk about on here in passing. Like oh, the 12z ECM has a threat at Day 8, then it loses it... or the GGEM has a threat at day 7, etc. The whole winter has been talk of "threats" when nothing pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Close to something a lot better. Nice that it develops along arctic front so plenty of cold around too. Yeah that looks pretty nice...mean low over the BM at 120 hours with some isobars poking back to the NW...tighten that up a bit and we would have a pretty sizable event on our hands. We'll def want that meridional flow to be as amplified as possible as we get closer to get the northern stream energy to dig underneath us with enough room to wrap something into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Well there is always rouge model runs trying to show snow out at that time-frame... I know what he's saying. There haven't been many legit threats but I feel like there's been a bunch of about the same time frame out past 7 days that we talk about on here in passing. Like oh, the 12z ECM has a threat at Day 8, then it loses it... or the GGEM has a threat at day 7, etc. The whole winter has been talk of "threats" when nothing pans out. People shouldn't get emotionally invested in D7 threats. Shame on them if they do...you are usually setting yourself up for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Well there is always rouge model runs trying to show snow out at that time-frame... I know what he's saying. There haven't been many legit threats but I feel like there's been a bunch of about the same time frame out past 7 days that we talk about on here in passing. Like oh, the 12z ECM has a threat at Day 8, then it loses it... or the GGEM has a threat at day 7, etc. The whole winter has been talk of "threats" when nothing pans out. Well this is for Saturday (day 5) according to the euro and its ensembles...but the gfs had it for Sunday night. So if this even happens there is timing to work out considering the gfs basically had this "event" happening 30 hours later then the euro. edit: Looking at it again its not that far off. The gfs is a little slower but not as major as I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Just looking at the 12z Euro Op run you can see if that lobe of vorticity diving S comes in faster and further S it would phase with that piece of energy rounding the base of the trough and away we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 People shouldn't get emotionally invested in D7 threats. Shame on them if they do...you are usually setting yourself up for disappointment. Oh I completely agree with you... the term "threat" gets tossed around way to easily here so sometimes I can see when it might be hard to see the difference between a real threat and some rouge model run that shows something favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 We like arctic boundaries that slide south and pretty much stall for 12 hours. I'm on board with snows this weekend from Friday-Sunday. WINDEX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2012 Author Share Posted February 6, 2012 Pretty nice runs today. Will be nice to track something. FYI the disconnect with Ray misunderstanding my giving up on the totality of winter yet track future individual storms is understandable. I just can not grasp how a snow lover would seek a futility record Feb 6 th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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