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The Feb 10-12 storm threat, real or imagined?


Ginx snewx

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LC with more PHAIL..you'd think he'd learn

ECMWF Vs. GGEM And GFS Outlooks! Blocking Signals Look Real, So Best To Go (Cautiously) With Somewhat Colder Outcome East Of Continental Divide

NRL

NOAA/IMS

NOAA/ESRL

Environment Canada

Penn State University Weather Server

There remains a wide split between the European ensemble package and that of the Canadian and American equations. If you believe the ECMWF series, no storms and a cool West/warm East scenario will occur between February 15 and 19. The GGEM and GFS model suites, meanwhile, strongly support some measure of positive height anomalies in the -EPO, -AO, and -NAO positions. With a broad Arctic vortex drifting in and out of the Hudson Bay position, that would imply a mild pattern west of the Continental Divide and below normal temperatures from the Rocky Mountains into the western Atlantic Ocean.

Since the NAEFS super-ensemble and winter 2011-2012 climatology (semizonal flow balanced between prominent flat ridges off of California and over the Azores) are in line with the ECMWF scenario, the idea of a mild turn in the middle and later part of February could well verify. However, the ongoing presence of a strong subtropical jet stream, huge/cold gyre over eastern Canada and the long-term duration of positive temperature anomalies over the U.S. (remember it has been very warm for a very LONG time across the nation, and that trend cannot last ad infinitum) tells me that colder result is likely outside of the West Coast in the longer term.

I, along with some others, have been trying to talk sense into him on FB since like December.

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I hear ya on the clean car, Kev....pleasant.

It's all about perspective......I think the long range looks great.

The pattern right now sucks......it's unpleasant to be outside.

It's not going to snow, so torch it.....sorry, but I don't care to be uncomfortable for the sake of seeing "PLENTY OF CHANCES" for Dendrite, the ORH hills and GC to see advisory events.

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probably will get a weenie or five for this, but when we talk about looking for "a phase" with this storm, I think we are actually looking for a triple phaser

There are three distinct waves in the equation ... the southern cutoff energy, the s/w diving down the east side of the western ridge, and the lobe off the PV in Canada.

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18Zmade a valiant effort. ;) ..tho still offshore...except Phil who get a few inches.

If that scenario ever worked out...it would be the first truly classic Miller A running the whole coast with snow from the deep south to NE in quite awhile.. Ahh nice fantasy....

probably will get a weenie or five for this, but when we talk about looking for "a phase" with this storm, I think we are actually looking for a triple phaser

There are three distinct waves in the equation ... the southern cutoff energy, the s/w diving down the east side of the western ridge, and the lobe off the PV in Canada.

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18Zmade a valiant effort. ;) ..tho still offshore...except Phil who get a few inches.

If that scenario ever worked out...it would be the first truly classic Miller A running the whole coast with snow from the deep south to NE in quite awhile.. Ahh nice fantasy....

18z GFS was closer ... or at least different lol

Boxing Day 2010 was pretty classic

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At least it ends up closer to something than the 00z GFS. I wouldn't throw in the towel on this one until 00z Wednesday.

I didn't look at H5 (I'm sure that looks promising), but they are similar at the surface.

Maybe the EURO is P Sunny, as opposed to the cobalt blue skies depicted on the GFS. :lol:

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