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The Feb 10-12 storm threat, real or imagined?


Ginx snewx

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As much as I like Pete, it's refreshing not to hear "Wah wah wah...this winter is horrible....still plenty of winter to go here in GC.."

He will be skipping through the tulips with his pony-o swinging to and fro when he returns. His lawn will be all greened up since Kevin will sneak in a truckload of LESCO, his skiis will be used as garden stakes, and his picnic table will be replaced by a hackey sack court

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The 144h UKMET is vastly different than the new ECMWF with handling the s/w. The ensembles will, as always, be interesting. It is going to be a long week of model mayhem.

Long week of model mayhem? The pattern looks like transient cold, dry, and boring. The PV is modeled to be in an awful position for east coast snow.

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Long week of model mayhem? The pattern looks like transient cold, dry, and boring. The PV is modeled to be in an awful position for east coast snow.

That's great. As for the rest of us in science, it is going to be a long week of model mayhem. Why don't you ask the weatherman how the Mid Atlantic forecasts from Friday went.

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The 144h UKMET is vastly different than the new ECMWF with handling the s/w. The ensembles will, as always, be interesting. It is going to be a long week of model mayhem.

I like the Euro's D6-10 - We'll be shooting up crocuses and greening up lawns early this year. Jesus -

No -AO. No +PNA. No -NAO.

Not sure what it is with this model but not only has it been grudgingly refusing through all of this, it just more than seems to dismantle negative polar field index modes at lest excuse imaginable. It actually just can't wait to destroy the +PNA for that matter.

It was posted on here earlier last week how the Euro has busted under the GFS' verification curve over the last 30 days, for D1-8!!! No longer the Dr. with its relentless stubbornness now killing it's value some.

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Out around 120 hours the northern energy swinging rather far west around the pivoting PV was almost crying out to grab that Baja low. LOL But it's the Euro and somehow yon knew it would never kick it out. Heck it's still sitting in the Baja at 180 hrs decaying.

Euro doesn't incorporate any of the southern stream so its just a big cold front that comes through.

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:lol: I threw mine a month ago, but I'd gladly take another

Actually, I seem to recall you (probably kiddingly) saying how the Oct storm was our death knell right after the event. I could be mistaken. My memory stinks.

If so, kudos to you for saying that in November. I just wanted to get a few more maps out of you before setting up the pool and slip and slide

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GC snowfall has taken it on the chin awfully

was looking like maybe N greens in VT and maybe N parts of maine have done decent in respect to snow this year but i think further down the greens around like killington they have been really screwed the last 6 weeks or so. killington averages 250 inches ......they probably have seen like what ..65 ?

Killington is reporting 85" as of now. Worst year since 1986 had 182" total. Killington could certainly set it futility record this year. If Killington gets 100" in the next few months a lot of people up here would be very happy. As of right now it's very icy.

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Actually, I seem to recall you (probably kiddingly) saying how the Oct storm was our death knell right after the event. I could be mistaken. My memory stinks.

If so, kudos to you for saying that in November. I just wanted to get a few more maps out of you before setting up the pool and slip and slide

I think it was Jerry who was banging that drum, with his October snow correlations :lol: I might have said something jokingly.

Nah, I was on the pattern change and snowy January train through the end of December. By the first week of January, I started to break down, and looking forward to spring, which I still fervently say cannot come soon enough!

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I think it was Jerry who was banging that drum, with his October snow correlations :lol: I might have said something jokingly.

Nah, I was on the pattern change and snowy January train through the end of December. By the first week of January, I started to break down, and looking forward to spring, which I still fervently say cannot come soon enough!

Jerry's squirrels had a tough go this year. I asked a wiser creature just yesterday his thoughts on the up coming pattern..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G06q9QlvWaA&list=UUGULGv2QMJpkryGiQ4BckSg&index=1&feature=plcp

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I like the Euro's D6-10 - We'll be shooting up crocuses and greening up lawns early this year. Jesus -

No -AO. No +PNA. No -NAO.

Not sure what it is with this model but not only has it been grudgingly refusing through all of this, it just more than seems to dismantle negative polar field index modes at lest excuse imaginable. It actually just can't wait to destroy the +PNA for that matter.

It was posted on here earlier last week how the Euro has busted under the GFS' verification curve over the last 30 days, for D1-8!!! No longer the Dr. with its relentless stubbornness now killing it's value some.

The -AO / MJO help will at least get some cold air into North America. At the very least, I hope we can set up a normal La Niña spring pattern. If we fail to do so, spring severe weather season in the mid-section of the country will be as fun and exciting as New England's winter!

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Scooter..have the Euro ens been showing the storm close enough to hit or just a near miss?

The mean slp has been a bit outside the benchmark for the most part which would be a miss to the east...but you will rarely see a big hit on an ensemble mean when you are talking about a day 6 threat. I wouldn't get emotionaly invested in this threat because its not even that realistic yet...its just a period of elevated interest is probably a better way to put it.

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The -AO / MJO help will at least get some cold air into North America. At the very least, I hope we can set up a normal La Niña spring pattern. If we fail to do so, spring severe weather season in the mid-section of the country will be as fun and exciting as New England's winter!

The long-range Euro looks pretty miserable though...that PV lifts out quickly towards Labrador and a -PNA develops, setting up a SE ridge. Looks as if some major warmth is about to push into the picture by Day 10.

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The long-range Euro looks pretty miserable though...that PV lifts out quickly towards Labrador and a -PNA develops, setting up a SE ridge. Looks as if some major warmth is about to push into the picture by Day 10.

Yeah but that wasn't my point. Notice there is cool air available in the northern Plains and the pattern looks like a La Niña spring at 240h.

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I

Yeah but that wasn't my point. Notice there is cool air available in the northern Plains and the pattern looks like a La Niña spring at 240h.

Give me a la nina like pattern for the spring along with enso conditions trending towards nino and late spring/summer could be fun here in the east

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