Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 It had advisory snow for one run...that was 3 runs ago...it continues to show light snow though. Like 1-2" perhaps. 1-3 in a snowless winter would likely bring about a snow advisroy for all of SNE...what is the timing of this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Awful pattern continues, the pattern in mid Jan was much better than this upcoming one. not entirely sure I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I'm honestly very intrigued by this....at first I was trolling out of frustration, but not so much anymore. If next week can fail, the rest of FEB is likely cooked....literally. March would be the only few weeks standing between history and me. Hopefully we can avoid some lame, interior focused advisory event, and either go big or futile. And we know what March has become over the past 7-10 yrs..sping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I'm honestly very intrigued by this....at first I was trolling out of frustration, but not so much anymore. If next week can fail, the rest of FEB is likely cooked....literally. March would be the only few weeks standing between history and me. Hopefully we can avoid some lame, interior focused advisory event, and either go big or futile. 12" May Condo Crusher incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 And we know what March has become over the past 7-10 yrs..sping I'm counting on that to continue for just one more season....get me my record, then turn the tides with a Nino next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Say it with me, everyone....."Looks great @....." Well I didn't call for a storm to hit, just that this run adjusted better at 500mb. Even at H5 it still wasn't great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 And we know what March has become over the past 7-10 yrs..sping What?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 1-3 in a snowless winter would likely bring about a snow advisroy for all of SNE...what is the timing of this event? It would probably be an evening into overnight type timing if it goes as currently modeled...but there's a couple shortwaves in the mix so it can change...might not even happen or could trend into something a bit more robust like the Euro had a few runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 LOL, past 7-10 years?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Is there any model verbatim showing a snowstorm in SNE in the next 10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 12" May Condo Crusher incoming I'd take that...but if it's a 12" ORH obliterator and 4" in the KGAY swamps, then I'd pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I'm counting on that to continue for just one more season....get me my record, then turn the tides with a Nino next year. I think everyone is all set with long range forecasting/forecasters..after the busts from everyone the last 2 seasons...it's safe to say noone has a freaking clue how next winter will work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Is there any model verbatim showing a snowstorm in SNE in the next 10 days? no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Climo is better at this stage, though.....if you're looking for a big kahuna in these parts, it's akin to July vs August in the tropics. agree on the average tendencies. but climo is just that... this past january obeyed no such rules. in any case, my godot is january 21 2005... that storm ruined my winter hopes forever lol (off to Game On in a little bit if anyone wants a mini-gtg) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Gotta hope that the Euro bias of leaving energy behind in the SW is at play in order for this threat to materialize. Still seems like a longshot though because timing will need to be pretty good. Nice trend with the northern stream though, hopefully it continues to show more "digginess". GGEM showed a pretty crazy 12z solution with the 5h closing off in NC next week and giving congrats to areas south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 It would probably be an evening into overnight type timing if it goes as currently modeled...but there's a couple shortwaves in the mix so it can change...might not even happen or could trend into something a bit more robust like the Euro had a few runs ago. Hopefully it will be a putrid airmass so the winshield wiping can be relegated to to the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Is there any model verbatim showing a snowstorm in SNE in the next 10 days? 00z GGEM showed a MECS...but deterministic forecasts at this range are useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 It would probably be an evening into overnight type timing if it goes as currently modeled...but there's a couple shortwaves in the mix so it can change...might not even happen or could trend into something a bit more robust like the Euro had a few runs ago. Wed or Thurs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Hopefully it will be a putrid airmass so the winshield wiping can be relegated to to the hills. lol... I'd better stock up on some more wiper fluid since I have plenty of money left over from not buying gas for the snow blower. Poor Garth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 00z GGEM showed a MECS...but deterministic forecasts at this range are useless. One of the 4 major globals showed a MECS @ day 6 and no one cared, took notice or discussed......I think folks have gotten the message this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Is there any model verbatim showing a snowstorm in SNE in the next 10 days? yes, one run: GFS 0Z last night... though it was snow for mostly outside of 495/NNE Feb 11... still, the spectrum of these solutions is broad, and a SNE hit is in that spectrum (EDIT: sorry, a run of the GGEM yesterday did too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 One of the 4 major globals showed a MECS @ day 6 and no one cared, took notice or discussed......I think folks have gotten the message this season. Tip did..but not one response ...Worst winter of all of our lives rolls on and on and on.. On the plus side..my car has only had salt on it 2 weeks since October..clean car FTW No spring lawn cleanup this year. Nothing to do but dethatch, Lesco,,and start mowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Plenty for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 it's times like these when it appears mets have to take on the dual role of met/ counselor for the inconsolable that make me chuckle in sports winning solves everything. for SNE snow solves everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 it's times like these when it appears mets have to take on the dual role of met/ counselor for the inconsolable that make me chuckle in sports winning solves everything. for SNE snow solves everything. Several mets here in New England, who I respect enourmously, and are snow lovers, have declared it a disastah Oh, it might snow, futility records are probably safe, but the Valentine's Day torch will almost obliterate any hope for a significant snowfall before the end of the month if next weekend goes by the book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 LC with more PHAIL..you'd think he'd learn ECMWF Vs. GGEM And GFS Outlooks! Blocking Signals Look Real, So Best To Go (Cautiously) With Somewhat Colder Outcome East Of Continental Divide NRL NOAA/IMS NOAA/ESRL Environment Canada Penn State University Weather Server There remains a wide split between the European ensemble package and that of the Canadian and American equations. If you believe the ECMWF series, no storms and a cool West/warm East scenario will occur between February 15 and 19. The GGEM and GFS model suites, meanwhile, strongly support some measure of positive height anomalies in the -EPO, -AO, and -NAO positions. With a broad Arctic vortex drifting in and out of the Hudson Bay position, that would imply a mild pattern west of the Continental Divide and below normal temperatures from the Rocky Mountains into the western Atlantic Ocean. Since the NAEFS super-ensemble and winter 2011-2012 climatology (semizonal flow balanced between prominent flat ridges off of California and over the Azores) are in line with the ECMWF scenario, the idea of a mild turn in the middle and later part of February could well verify. However, the ongoing presence of a strong subtropical jet stream, huge/cold gyre over eastern Canada and the long-term duration of positive temperature anomalies over the U.S. (remember it has been very warm for a very LONG time across the nation, and that trend cannot last ad infinitum) tells me that colder result is likely outside of the West Coast in the longer term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 As much as I like Pete, it's refreshing not to hear "Wah wah wah...this winter is horrible....still plenty of winter to go here in GC.." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The 144h UKMET is vastly different than the new ECMWF with handling the s/w. The ensembles will, as always, be interesting. It is going to be a long week of model mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 GC snowfall has taken it on the chin awfully was looking like maybe N greens in VT and maybe N parts of maine have done decent in respect to snow this year but i think further down the greens around like killington they have been really screwed the last 6 weeks or so. killington averages 250 inches ......they probably have seen like what ..65 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 nice to see we've finally broken the 20-member barrier... NE forum has been dead for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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